August 2022

[DoctorMu]

The Ensembles don't see a GOM hurricane, so it's just another GFS fantasy until the ensembles and actual data say otherwise.

GFS has shifted the hurricane toward Louisiana during landfall. That would suck very much, because it would would bring mega September heat...and probably damage refineries and rigs jacking up O&G prices again. Most of the models and ensembles see normal late Aug, early Sept. weather. Let's keep it that way!

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu lol the GFS has pretty much destroyed the entire WGOM in its last 3-4 runs

[Cromagnum]

Globalized
Fantasy
Systems

[Stratton20]

I suspect the GFS to cave to the Euro and CMC, this is just another fantasy land system due to convective feedback biacy, i hope the GFS gets upgraded again so that this biacy can be corrected

Edit: The 12z GFS is sticking with its guns lol, not happening though

[tireman4]

Watching the GFS weather model#TropicalUpdateNeed to address the GFS model output over past few days.TS forms in NW Caribbean in 5-6 days and intensifies into powerful hurricane in Gulf of Mexico by next weekend.It is plasuible, possible but certainly not guaranteed. pic.twitter.com/YnFPE8dRkZ
-- Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 26, 2022

[tireman4]

4 recent runs GFS. Wonder if its seeing a storm in the western gulf pic.twitter.com/wTh835zW2B
-- Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) August 26, 2022

[TexasBreeze]

Crazy run this time too- shows a Mx border hit with another system forming right behind it from leftover energy!

[DoctorMu]

Watching the GFS weather model#TropicalUpdateNeed to address the GFS model output over past few days.TS forms in NW Caribbean in 5-6 days and intensifies into powerful hurricane in Gulf of Mexico by next weekend.It is plasuible, possible but certainly not guaranteed. pic.twitter.com/YnFPE8dRkZ
-- Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 26, 2022

Climo alone would indicate a rising risk of tropical development in the next 2 weeks, presuming La Nina - related low shear continues.

Something real to watch out for is the front in the GOM

[DoctorMu]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and complex area of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The interaction of this feature with an approaching tropical wave
could support some gradual development of the system during the
early and middle parts of next week while it moves slowly westward
to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become more conducive for slow development of this
system during the early or middle part of next week while it moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and
northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart

[DoctorMu]

The reason I have more of an eye out on the GOM front is potential interaction of the Caribbean area of interest with dry air to the north and west. Pockets of shear in the western Caribbean as well. We'll see.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[Rip76]

The reason I have more of an eye out on the GOM front is potential interaction of the Caribbean area of interest with dry air to the north and west. We'll see.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

This is what I’m watching as well.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu how would the front potentially interact with the caribbean disturbance?

[Cromagnum]

Lots of stuff popping parallel to 59 south of town.

[jasons2k]

Lots of stuff popping parallel to 59 south of town.

I’ve been patiently watching the storms to my north build and just when they start to crank, here comes an outflow from the south to ruin it.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

The primary weather concern today will be pop up showers and
thunderstorms. Though there will be a risk of at least isolated
areas of precipitation at all terminals today, the best risk of
seeing a TS will be from Houston points south. Winds are expected
to remain light. However, we cannot rule out locally gusty winds
in and near any thunderstorm. TS/SH chances will decrease
overnight. The exception will be near the immediate coast where
there is a chance of SH after midnight. Generally VFR conditions
are expected overnight. Areas of MVFR are possible near northern
terminals.

[Cromagnum]

[Cpv17]

I’m more interested in the second storm out in the Atlantic vs anything in the Gulf or Caribbean at this time but that’s just me lol

[cperk]

I’m more interested in the second storm out in the Atlantic vs anything in the Gulf or Caribbean at this time but that’s just me lol

I agree.

[Stratton20]

About 24/31 of the 18z GEFS members show the wave developing in the NW Caribbean at day 5, that is about as strong of a signal that you can get, no other model support so im not sure what to make of this, but I do think we cant just write this disturbance off just yet, just my two cents though

[Cpv17]

I’m more interested in the second storm out in the Atlantic vs anything in the Gulf or Caribbean at this time but that’s just me lol

I agree.

Yep. Ridging looks stout over the east coast. I personally don’t see this going there or out to sea and climo favors the Gulf right now.