Long range model discussion

[Cpv17]

We need to start paying attention to a low riding wave that appears to come off the coast of South America near Guyana or Venezuela. It’s beginning to get some operational support and has fairly decent ensemble support as well. Many ensemble members have this going into the Gulf and a few of them are on the strong side.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep, i especially noticed an uptick on the EPS for the wave in that area, definitely something worth monitoring closesly

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yep, i especially noticed an uptick on the EPS for the wave in that area, definitely something worth monitoring closesly

Yeah it looks like the tropics are finally waking up. This run of the GFS and ICON are going to get peoples attention.

[Stratton20]

GFS has a 973 MB hurricane so far at hour 174, it will be interesting to see what the Euro shows given its ensembles like this wave

[Cpv17]

GFS has a 973 MB hurricane so far at hour 174, it will be interesting to see what the Euro shows given its ensembles like this wave

It’s going to bomb out in the Gulf on this run of the GFS.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 what an ugly run bombs out at 947 MB making landfall at the Florida Peninsula, this is definitely one to watch

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 what an ugly run bombs out at 947 MB making landfall at the Florida Peninsula, this is definitely one to watch

Oh yeah! The GEFS and the Euro/EPS are going to be really interesting.

[Cpv17]

The wet pattern continues:

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 12z Eps guidance

[Cpv17]

The 18z GEFS has many members as hurricanes going anywhere from Mexico to the FL panhandle. Some of the members are showing majors. Rather alarming run of the GEFS.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 Yep we really need to watch this one closesly, has a favorable environment in the caribbean

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 Yep we really need to watch this one closesly, has a favorable environment in the caribbean

Yeah this is the most alarming run of any ensemble I’ve seen all year.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep, most 18z GEFS members that are really strong, go further west towards texas…. Its going to be a very interesting week of model watching to say the least

[Cpv17]

18z Euro is a tiny bit stronger than the 12z.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep the vorticity is a little more consolidated, tonights 00z runs are going to be very interesting indeed

[Cpv17]

18z GEFS ensembles:

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 seeing all those stronger members in the western gulf is alarming

[Stratton20]

Still decent support from the 12z EPS fwiw

[Cpv17]

Still decent support from the 12z EPS fwiw

Yeah it’s still worth paying attention to and so is the one about to exit Africa.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 plus its no surprise our caribbean disturbance isnt doing much right now, dealing with dry air, and that’s probably why the - 12z models backed off on development , i suspect once the wave gets into the western caribbean where the environment is much more conducive, models might start to show development again