General Tropical Discussion Thread

[wxman57]

IF this were to make it all the way to the carribean, unless current pattern changes, this would be a southern Texas, or northern Mexico storm. For sure needs to be watched.

I'd agree with you on that one. See? We do agree sometimes. I'd even go so far as to say about anywhere in the northern Gulf would be at risk with that pattern. But it's over 2 weeks away, so things can change. It would be a surprise if there wasn't some sort of threat out there on Labor Day weekend, though.

[biggerbyte]

Hi ya, wxman.

Thanks for the reply. Yes, it had to happen at some point... Lol
Oh, I'm just bigger on climo than the models. Ever since Andrew almost ate my lunch in Florida, then Ike did his thing, I've been afraid to rely on them much. I'm getting back on the bandwagon a little at a time. Sometimes things are just clear as to what will take place. Sort of like now. This pattern that we are currently in is so in sync with the models.

So, you think this has a chance to effect any portion of the Gulf, and not just the southern/southwestern regions?

[Ptarmigan]

I notice one computer model have a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean heading towards Mexico. Any words on what would be Fiona?

[redneckweather]

Ah Jamaica Beach! I caught me a nice limit of specks in the surf at 16 mile rd. just last week. Gotta love it when the surf goes flat and the water cleans up! Still plenty of signs of Ike along that stretch of beach if you look close enough.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT TUE 24 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8-HR RESEARCH
MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AT 38,000 FT.
TAKEOFF TIME IS 24/1400Z.

[srainhoutx]

Probably time for a new Topic for the Gulf threat. I'll move the posts pertaining to that feature to the new Topic if someone wants to start one.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting comments from the HPC this morning...snip...

OVER THE WRN ATLC THE FULL SOLN ENVELOPE FOR THE TRACK OF HURCN
DANIELLE HAS EXPANDED WWD OVER THE PAST DAY WITH THE 18Z GFS/00Z
NOGAPS ALONG WITH A FEW GEFS MEMBERS REACHING FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
EAST COAST. AT THIS TIME THE WRN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
APPEARS UNLIKELY BASED ON REMAINING MODEL SOLNS AND TPC/NHC TRACK
FORECAST THRU DAY 5. TWO FOLLOWING SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO
FOLLOW DANIELLE NEARLY IN TRACE. CONSULT LATEST
ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING DANIELLE AND
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FORECAST 200MB CHI VERTICAL VELOCITY ANOMALIES ALONG WITH A
PERSISTENT MEAN INCREASED 850 MB WESTERLY WIND ANOMALY OVER THE
TROPICAL EPAC INDICATES CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
CYCLOGENESIS OR CONTINUED TROPICAL ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LONGER
TERM...ABOUT 10 DAYS...INCREASE IN FAVORABILTY BY THESE INDICES IN
THE TROPICAL EAST ATLANTIC AS SEEN BY GFS AND CMC. SEE CPC MJO
DISCUSSIONS.

[srainhoutx]

Also worth noting is the rather consistant suggestion from the Euro of a system developing in the Western Caribbean and moving it into the Gulf...

[sleetstorm]

Even Pro Mets on that forum (many from DC area) appear to hope for US landfalls. Speaking of US landfalls, future Fiona (Gaston is such a lame name) is entering the Caribbean per Euro. Some GFS support. Doesn't mean it has to affect the US, even if it does develop, but odds seem good Labor Day weekend, WxMan57 won't be knocking back a six of Miller Lite and watching the Atlanta night race that Saturday. I assume we'd be going to Galveston. I fish, and am a master of catching hardheads.

Hey, Ed, what about the names Giovanni or Giuseppi for a tropical cyclone. I do not know about you but those names sound strong to me.

[srainhoutx]

Could be an interesting couple of weeks regarding any future Cape Verde storms...

[unome]

http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/

He now has a program in alpha testing to track how the various models are performing on track and intensity, wind speed & pressure for any given system - a great addition to his site. I'm already addicted to the recon in Google Earth, this young man is brilliant

now I just have to figure out how to use them all...

[texoz]

very impressive blob behind Fiona, but there's nothing on the NHC website indicating that region has any potential for development.

[unome]

it's invest PG139L on the Predict page of CIMSS: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#
and the Navy site as well: http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI39L.html

Their analysis follows:

PREDICT pouch synopsis

Date (UTC): 2010/08/30 13:52
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/08/30 13:55
Pouch Name: PGI39L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 11N 6W
Notes:

Weak system ... will dissipate or be absorbed by the following wave

ECMWF: Phase Speed: -7.8 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

GFS: Phase Speed: -7.4 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa


UKMET: Phase Speed: Determination: Level tracked:


NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -3.1 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

Slower phase speed is a clue that NOGAPS appears to merge PGI39L with the following wave, with some eastward movement before the
merger.

Other potential systems:

PGI39L is forecast to not intensify much. Instead, the following wave (See "Other Possible System") is forecast to be the next substantial pouch, but it was still east of 10E at 00Z.

GFS and ECMWF have an interesting pouch development over the Florida Straits at 36 hours.


There is more weather research out there right now than you can shake a stick at, between GRIP & PREDICT & regular Recon flights

[unome]

gets better every day - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/

simply amazing satellite shots of Earl

[srainhoutx]

Looks active across the Tropics tonight. What better a night for the 'night crew' to be active...

[srainhoutx]

Playing catch up...behind Gaston...who turned on the switch?...

YET ANOTHER STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA AND IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Andrew]

Playing catch up...behind Gaston...who turned on the switch?...

YET ANOTHER STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA AND IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

The lack of sleep has made me delusional. Looks like Gaston and the storm behind Gaston could both be carib cruisers.

[srainhoutx]

Wave behind Gaston...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE...ARE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[kayci]

Looks active across the Tropics tonight. What better a night for the 'night crew' to be active...

Soooo, what's that blob in the GOM?

[srainhoutx]

Soooo, what's that blob in the GOM?

Showers/storms associated with an Upper Low it looks like kayci...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php