August 2022
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5362
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Looking down in the western Caribbean, that area of energy near the Yucatán may help to enhance rain chances thursday /friday as some of the moisture gets pulled NW
Gott love unstable air descending toward us from the Red River to MS along a boundary and shortwave.
000
FXUS64 KHGX 092100
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022
.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
Isolated to widely scattered showers with a few thunderstorms
will continue to develop through early this evening, with better
chances north of 1-10. This is in response to a weak boundary and
mid-level shortwave extending along the Arklatex/Lower MS Valley.
These features are contributing to steep low-level lapse rates
along with strong/rich moisture transport with PWAT values above 2
inches. This activity will linger through sunset, though some
showers may persist through late evening across our northern
counties.
The environment will remain unstable through the end of the
short-term with periods of showers and thunderstorms. Different
impulses of energy/vort max embedded in the flow aloft will move
southward into the region tonight into Wed night. In addition,
daytime heating and weak sea/bay breezes could lead to scattered
convection on Wed afternoon. [b]Have increased PoPs to 50-60 percent
chance for Wednesday. [/b]Temperatures will remain near normal for
early August given increasing cloud cover and precipitation
chances. Wednesday`s highs will range from the mid to upper 90s
inland, mid to upper 80s along the coast.
05
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
Increased rain chances continue on Thursday and into the weekend
as weak shortwave energy pushes underneath the mid to upper level
ridge over the Central Plains/Rockies and into SE Texas. This
shortwave will help enhance uplift and support more widespread
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday as it enters the
Northwestern Gulf. PWATS sit in the range of around 2.0-2.3"
during this timeframe, which should provide plentiful moisture for
theses storms to develop. Decent mid to upper level moisture with
a warm cloud layer depth in excess of 10,000 ft will increase the
precipitation efficiency of these storms. WPC currently has
portions of our coastal areas under a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall on Thursday, where moisture and forcing are currently
most favorable for rain development. Models have also trended
higher with POPS over the same time frame, with the latest NBM
bringing rain chances near 85% in the afternoon. Opted to cap pops
at 75% to allow subsequent forecasts to ease into these higher
rain chances, should guidance continue to trend in this direction.
If these trends do unfold, we may see some much needed relief
from the dry conditions across the region. Residual shortwave
energy from a mid to upper level trough spanning across the
East/Southeast CONUS may round the bottom of the upper level ridge
to provide additional relief to portions of the region on
Saturday, though diminishing moisture will put rain chances on the
decline for the days following.
Conditions will still be fairly hot over the next several days,
though increased cloud cover and rainfall from any developing
showers and thunderstorms will help cool off portions of the
regions from Thursday through Saturday. With 850mb temperatures
ranging from 18-20C, highs will be in the mid to upper 90s inland
and upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. Though, expect to see
variation in these numbers, as temperatures will largely depend on
the location and intensity of any developing storms.
Sunday and onwards, we begin to shift back into a normal
summertime pattern with the mid to upper level ridge shifting over
the Central/Southern plains. 850mb temperatures creep up into the
19-22C range, which will bring highs back into the mid 90s to
lower 100s across the region. Lack of upper level support with no
cap during the afternoon hours will lead to more diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze. PWATS also dwindle
down to around 1.6-1.9" further hampering rainfall and allowing
hot weather to return throughout the region. Notably, the latest
GFS run depicts a surface low setting up over the Central Plans on
Tuesday, drifting south towards into Oklahoma later in the day.
Though, the frontal boundary associated with it doesn`t appear to
reach our area yet.
03
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move over
the terminals this afternoon. There will be two areas to monitor
for convection: (1) SHRA/TSRA along the sea/bay breezes this
afternoon and (2) additional activity coming from the north due
to a decaying outflow boundary. Precipitation should taper off
around 7-9pm. Showers are again expected along the coastal
terminals by early Wednesday morning, expanding inland by noon.
South to southeasterly light winds are expected, strengthening in
the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore flow will prevail over the next several
days with seas sitting around 2-3 ft. Caution flags may be needed
during the overnight hours with nocturnal effects bringing
increased wind speeds near 15kts at times. Rain chances will
increase heading into Wednesday and onwards as weak disturbances
aloft pass over the region.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 100 76 98 76 / 20 50 30 60 30
Houston (IAH) 77 96 76 92 75 / 10 50 30 70 40
Galveston (GLS) 84 92 83 88 81 / 20 30 40 70 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Maldonado
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...Maldonado
MARINE...03
000
FXUS64 KHGX 092100
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022
.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
Isolated to widely scattered showers with a few thunderstorms
will continue to develop through early this evening, with better
chances north of 1-10. This is in response to a weak boundary and
mid-level shortwave extending along the Arklatex/Lower MS Valley.
These features are contributing to steep low-level lapse rates
along with strong/rich moisture transport with PWAT values above 2
inches. This activity will linger through sunset, though some
showers may persist through late evening across our northern
counties.
The environment will remain unstable through the end of the
short-term with periods of showers and thunderstorms. Different
impulses of energy/vort max embedded in the flow aloft will move
southward into the region tonight into Wed night. In addition,
daytime heating and weak sea/bay breezes could lead to scattered
convection on Wed afternoon. [b]Have increased PoPs to 50-60 percent
chance for Wednesday. [/b]Temperatures will remain near normal for
early August given increasing cloud cover and precipitation
chances. Wednesday`s highs will range from the mid to upper 90s
inland, mid to upper 80s along the coast.
05
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
Increased rain chances continue on Thursday and into the weekend
as weak shortwave energy pushes underneath the mid to upper level
ridge over the Central Plains/Rockies and into SE Texas. This
shortwave will help enhance uplift and support more widespread
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday as it enters the
Northwestern Gulf. PWATS sit in the range of around 2.0-2.3"
during this timeframe, which should provide plentiful moisture for
theses storms to develop. Decent mid to upper level moisture with
a warm cloud layer depth in excess of 10,000 ft will increase the
precipitation efficiency of these storms. WPC currently has
portions of our coastal areas under a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall on Thursday, where moisture and forcing are currently
most favorable for rain development. Models have also trended
higher with POPS over the same time frame, with the latest NBM
bringing rain chances near 85% in the afternoon. Opted to cap pops
at 75% to allow subsequent forecasts to ease into these higher
rain chances, should guidance continue to trend in this direction.
If these trends do unfold, we may see some much needed relief
from the dry conditions across the region. Residual shortwave
energy from a mid to upper level trough spanning across the
East/Southeast CONUS may round the bottom of the upper level ridge
to provide additional relief to portions of the region on
Saturday, though diminishing moisture will put rain chances on the
decline for the days following.
Conditions will still be fairly hot over the next several days,
though increased cloud cover and rainfall from any developing
showers and thunderstorms will help cool off portions of the
regions from Thursday through Saturday. With 850mb temperatures
ranging from 18-20C, highs will be in the mid to upper 90s inland
and upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. Though, expect to see
variation in these numbers, as temperatures will largely depend on
the location and intensity of any developing storms.
Sunday and onwards, we begin to shift back into a normal
summertime pattern with the mid to upper level ridge shifting over
the Central/Southern plains. 850mb temperatures creep up into the
19-22C range, which will bring highs back into the mid 90s to
lower 100s across the region. Lack of upper level support with no
cap during the afternoon hours will lead to more diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze. PWATS also dwindle
down to around 1.6-1.9" further hampering rainfall and allowing
hot weather to return throughout the region. Notably, the latest
GFS run depicts a surface low setting up over the Central Plans on
Tuesday, drifting south towards into Oklahoma later in the day.
Though, the frontal boundary associated with it doesn`t appear to
reach our area yet.
03
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move over
the terminals this afternoon. There will be two areas to monitor
for convection: (1) SHRA/TSRA along the sea/bay breezes this
afternoon and (2) additional activity coming from the north due
to a decaying outflow boundary. Precipitation should taper off
around 7-9pm. Showers are again expected along the coastal
terminals by early Wednesday morning, expanding inland by noon.
South to southeasterly light winds are expected, strengthening in
the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore flow will prevail over the next several
days with seas sitting around 2-3 ft. Caution flags may be needed
during the overnight hours with nocturnal effects bringing
increased wind speeds near 15kts at times. Rain chances will
increase heading into Wednesday and onwards as weak disturbances
aloft pass over the region.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 100 76 98 76 / 20 50 30 60 30
Houston (IAH) 77 96 76 92 75 / 10 50 30 70 40
Galveston (GLS) 84 92 83 88 81 / 20 30 40 70 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Maldonado
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...Maldonado
MARINE...03
I see our little pocket of dry air getting squeezed between the southward moving boundary and impulses and the sea breeze.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
Still, what if we get dry slotted tomorrow? Hopped over? Boundaries cancelling each other out. A lot can still go wrong.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
Still, what if we get dry slotted tomorrow? Hopped over? Boundaries cancelling each other out. A lot can still go wrong.
Good downpour today in Ft. Bend. No gauge, so don't know how much rain fell.
But more and more rain is really greening things up — a more verdant look with luxuriant green grass, foliage amongst a deep blue skie ... rather than the hazy "Rio Grande brushland" look with fazed out skies and browner landscape.
But more and more rain is really greening things up — a more verdant look with luxuriant green grass, foliage amongst a deep blue skie ... rather than the hazy "Rio Grande brushland" look with fazed out skies and browner landscape.
On cue the boundary and seabreeze crashed together over us and damped down the instability. Another iso shower forms and drifts west of us.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:04 pm I see our little pocket of dry air getting squeezed between the southward moving boundary and impulses and the sea breeze.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
Still, what if we get dry slotted tomorrow? Hopped over? Boundaries cancelling each other out. A lot can still go wrong.
Five day rainfall map from Fox 26. Another donut!!!
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I finally cashed in just a few minutes later after my last post with a quarter inch. Now up to 9.8” on the year.
Actual FROPA about the 19th and end of the month per GFS...
Finally it looks like the Euro is onboard with better rain chances.
I know it’s trash but the rain chances on TWC app are no better than the last 2,3,4,5 heck I lost count the number of “moisture surges” promising rain this summer, starting with El Busto the last week of June.
Woo hoo. I see 80-90% coverage of rain starting today thru Saturday for the triangle. Hadn’t seen those percentages since our blob in the gulf. QPF looks good for Houston as well. Hopefully we ALL get something beneficial between now and Sunday. Fingers crossed!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
The rich get richer...djmike wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:43 am Woo hoo. I see 80-90% coverage of rain starting today thru Saturday for the triangle. Hadn’t seen those percentages since our blob in the gulf. QPF looks good for Houston as well. Hopefully we ALL get something beneficial between now and Sunday. Fingers crossed!
50%~80% for Houston now thru Saturday according to NWS. So thats not too shabby for yall either.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:10 amThe rich get richer...djmike wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:43 am Woo hoo. I see 80-90% coverage of rain starting today thru Saturday for the triangle. Hadn’t seen those percentages since our blob in the gulf. QPF looks good for Houston as well. Hopefully we ALL get something beneficial between now and Sunday. Fingers crossed!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5362
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
12z ICON now shows a weak tropical system after the passage of the weak front this weekend fwiw
Edit: The 12z NAM now shows possible tropical cyclogenisis as well
Regardless of any development this weekend is our best shot at rain, its either bust or feast, no in between!
Edit: The 12z NAM now shows possible tropical cyclogenisis as well
Regardless of any development this weekend is our best shot at rain, its either bust or feast, no in between!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by Stratton20 on Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:19 am, edited 2 times in total.
30-60% chance of rain here through Friday night. About as good as it gets around here in mid August.
Without a tropical system...
Without a tropical system...
Seems like a carbon copy of our earlier busticane.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:51 am 12z ICON now shows a weak tropical system after the passage of the weak front this weekend fwiw
Edit: The 12z NAM now shows possible tropical cyclogenisis as well
Regardless of any development this weekend is our best shot at rain, its either bust or feast, no in between!
Man i woke up this morning to 50% chance of rain today on my TWC ap and saw a quick twitter by KHOU and now I'm looking at my radar and seeing nothing.... and my chance has dropped to 15% for the day.
And just like that, Im having a hard time catching a break to mow LOLdjmike wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:43 am Woo hoo. I see 80-90% coverage of rain starting today thru Saturday for the triangle. Hadn’t seen those percentages since our blob in the gulf. QPF looks good for Houston as well. Hopefully we ALL get something beneficial between now and Sunday. Fingers crossed!
The chance of rain will be approaching from the north, not the south, folks. I still expected the boundary to run out of steam when it hits College Station.
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