July 2022

[captainbarbossa19]

Eh the Euro is the only model showing development, will say though we might not see much tropical activity for the whole month of august, the Atlantic basin is just not favorable right now, and that dry air looks to go no where at least in the firsr 2-3 weeks of august

Most of the basin is unfavorable concerning dry air, but shear is not horrible. The Euro shows an anticyclone following along with the system which helps promote a good shear environment. Dry air is initially drawn into the system, but as it moves further west, the dry air filters out. This is not unreasonable and many waves that start off dry can filter in moist air later on and develop. This can make them more dangerous for land areas too if they delay development. Andrew is a good example of this taking place. Not saying this will be Andrew 2.0, but watch this wave closely because they can be big surprises.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 the WATL does look more favorable as their is less dry air like you said, the problem is though with the amount of dry air in the MDR, these waves coming off of africa will get scoured out by that dry air leaving them void of convection, probably wont see activity start to pick up until around peak season, I guess we will just have to see if any of these waves stay intact while traverising the atlantic

[jasons2k]

Showers today are fast movers so far. Not gonna amount to much unless some real storms can congeal later on.

[captainbarbossa19]

Showers today are fast movers so far. Not gonna amount to much unless some real storms can congeal later on.

I managed to pick up 0.62 today. Most I have had in about a month!

[jasons2k]

Showers today are fast movers so far. Not gonna amount to much unless some real storms can congeal later on.

I managed to pick up 0.62 today. Most I have had in about a month!

Glad you got that! That’s awesome!

Well it’s all falling apart up here. I was in the pool and had literally two drops hit my face from a dying shower before it ceased. Sprinkler time.

Not all hope is lost though. It’s only 2:30 and temp is rising again, and still some showers along the coast.

[Cpv17]

Latest 8-14 day precipitation forecast from the CPC is quite interesting.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep above normal precip for SE Texas and deep south Texas, interesting enough the 12z GFS has a weak tropical system approaching deep south texas in the first week of august, we will see

[DoctorMu]

Eh the Euro is the only model showing development, will say though we might not see much tropical activity for the whole month of august, the Atlantic basin is just not favorable right now, and that dry air looks to go no where at least in the firsr 2-3 weeks of august

The Euro is by far the best tropical-centric of the models. Still 12 days off anything can happen. Regardless, I like seeing the ridge moving east of us for rain chances, tropical system or not. there would be a seabreeze.

Although we are getting an easterly "sea breeze." No rain. We're parched at the low levels. Mid and upper level water vapor GOES loops aren't bad, though.

A few sea breeze popcorn showers breezed right past us.

[user:null]

Very good storm development occurring this weekend so far. Had a heavy downpour in the Fulshear-Richmond area earlier this afternoon — sun came out, and the skies have that deep "tropical" blue w/ cirrus anvil debris.

[DoctorMu]

Some good news in the models. GFS still sees the end of the month front going all the way to the coast. CMC has the front stalling over Texas and Euro at the Red River. Either way, potential for showers. GFS even has a second front approaching the area around Aug 4. More potential for rain and "cooler" temperatures (under 100°F for us). We'll see.

Models agree about some weakness in the death ridge late in the month and early August. Fingers crossed.

[Stratton20]

Yup, this is about the best news we have seen a while regarding the death ridge and rain chances, hope we can get that front all the way down here before it stalls out, the closer to us the more rain for SE Texas

[jasons2k]

I have rain chances now almost every day. Better than nothing!

[DoctorMu]

I have rain chances now almost every day. Better than nothing!

You sure do. 10-20% starting Friday here.

I've got to go water the trees. At least there were clouds again today.

[djmike]

Saw this and had to share. So true for so many. The “Dont you dare!” i have said outloud so many times before!!

02E41177-0B14-48E9-8CF0-5BA2BABF7451.jpeg

[Stratton20]

djmike that has got to be the most accurate description ever

[DoctorMu]

Gainesville, FL - another day, another 4 pm t-storm.

[davidiowx]

Saw this and had to share. So true for so many. The “Dont you dare!” i have said outloud so many times before!! 02E41177-0B14-48E9-8CF0-5BA2BABF7451.jpeg

I feel like this is happening to me all the time! This was me yesterday:

Looks at radar, sees rain south and looks like a no doubter! Gets excited, mows grass quick, feel the breeze, check radar again. Finally! It’s gonna rain and the grass is gonna love it! Check radar again.. WTF! It’s N, S, E W of me and I’m left watering the grass.

[Stratton20]

Lol now the GFS wants to tease us with a tropical storm in the first week of august

[Cromagnum]

Just got done mowing, and catching a nice little stray downpour right now. I'll take it.

[Stratton20]

Models have backed off on rain chances next week, surprise surprise, rain totals look meager over the next 10 days, this is such a joke lol