July 2022

[DoctorMu]

On cue, the cells are within 5-6 miles and dump and outflow on us. On radar, they've hit the wall at the county line.

[Stratton20]

The aggie shield is in full effect again, yet again the convection gets close and then fizzles , unbelievable

[txbear]

Well I’m not the only one. Looks like Aldine, Jersey Village, Cypress, Katy all got shafted. The outflow just outran it literally as it got here. One of the more painful misses. It looked like a sure thing.

Is it just me, or is there something about outflow boundaries that seems excessive or specific to this region that kills off a lot of rain?

Is it a lack of ability to sustain lift and energy for the parent storms that they suddenly collapse or push these boundaries out?

Between the experiences for you and Cromagnum, and a lot of us on the west side, it just seems peculiar.

[biffb816]

The aggie shield is in full effect again, yet again the convection gets close and then fizzles , unbelievable

Something about 249 between the Beltway and 99 that makes the rain miss me on both sides.

[jasons2k]

Well I’m not the only one. Looks like Aldine, Jersey Village, Cypress, Katy all got shafted. The outflow just outran it literally as it got here. One of the more painful misses. It looked like a sure thing.

Is it just me, or is there something about outflow boundaries that seems excessive or specific to this region that kills off a lot of rain?

Is it a lack of ability to sustain lift and energy for the parent storms that they suddenly collapse or push these boundaries out?

Between the experiences for you and Cromagnum, and a lot of us on the west side, it just seems peculiar.

It’s often a factor that in Texas we often need a lot of heat instability in place to overcome capping, ridging, and drier air. We have a harder time than places east of here overcoming one or multiple factors. So when an outflow passes by, it just kills the updrafts. It doesn’t happen nearly as often in Florida because the outlfows tend to be a little slower moving (not as much dry air mixing-in causing explosive downdrafts) and you may have one negative factor to overcome (the outflow passing) and not 2, 3, or 4 different things to fight off at once. It just rains there, like magic.

[txbear]

Well I’m not the only one. Looks like Aldine, Jersey Village, Cypress, Katy all got shafted. The outflow just outran it literally as it got here. One of the more painful misses. It looked like a sure thing.

Is it just me, or is there something about outflow boundaries that seems excessive or specific to this region that kills off a lot of rain?

Is it a lack of ability to sustain lift and energy for the parent storms that they suddenly collapse or push these boundaries out?

Between the experiences for you and Cromagnum, and a lot of us on the west side, it just seems peculiar.

It’s often a factor that in Texas we often need a lot of heat instability in place to overcome capping, ridging, and drier air. We have a harder time than places east of here overcoming one or multiple factors. So when an outflow passes by, it just kills the updrafts. It doesn’t happen nearly as often in Florida because the outlfows tend to be a little slower moving (not as much dry air mixing-in causing explosive downdrafts) and you may have one negative factor to overcome (the outflow passing) and not 2, 3, or 4 different things to fight off at once. It just rains there, like magic.

Appreciate the insight and makes total sense.

Seems like to get sustaining storms (which really comes to play out west and the panhandle) is having a front, dry line, or similar boundary to carry and maintain convection. There’s the added benefit of sea breeze, tropical waves, and back door fronts to help at least initiate here.

Those southwest trade winds can be a you-know-what.

[jasons2k]

The robot is back in the pool. 2nd time today.
It sure is humid. I’ll be in that pool later.

[davidiowx]

Got some nice rains in Stafford today but nada at the house.. once again..

It is surprisingly not very humid outside right now. It’s quite pleasant for this time of year. Not sure why but it’ll probably be disgusting in a few hours lol

[user:null]

Appreciate the insight and makes total sense.

Seems like to get sustaining storms (which really comes to play out west and the panhandle) is having a front, dry line, or similar boundary to carry and maintain convection. There’s the added benefit of sea breeze, tropical waves, and back door fronts to help at least initiate here.

Those southwest trade winds can be a you-know-what.

Yes, Jasons is spot on regarding the effect that atmospheric dry air can have on storms

Now, obviously, whether or not your house gets hit ultimately is luck of the draw. The same processes could be in play, and places that have been missing can end up scoring big. But the dry air does lead to more dramatic outflows, downbursts, etc that can choke out ample storm coverage ... but areas that do score can score dramatically (i.e. downpour, heavy winds, pulse severity, etc).

Ridging, upper-level dry air, etc can definitely inhibit storm coverage as has been the case over Texas this summer. However, I'm still looking that the exact contributions from Mexican desert dry air (i.e. capping inversion, CIN, etc), versus just general subsidence in general.

Ultimately, given the downstream troughing that occurs farther east of Texas, I'm leaning towards a sort of wave-train effect — that the ridge isn't necessarily caused by anything local to the geography of Texas, just that it simply is part of an overarching pattern propagating from places as far west as Asia/Pacific Ocean. Basically, look up "Rossby waves" and that mechanism could provide what's at play regarding the factors that create/localize these atmospheric patterns in a way that dries Texas out often during the summer.

[jasons2k]

The other thing I forgot to mention - and a main point - is that starting east of here and especially down into Florida, the whole atmospheric column is truly tropical. We’re just far enough west for the column to be tainted by the Mexican plateau and the Texas death ridges. In those tropical air columns like down in Florida, sometimes it even rains at night. Just for the heck of it!

[jasons2k]

Look at the contrast. See there are still storms down there - even with lightning. Don’t forget they are also an hour ahead - it’s 10:25 over there.

[jasons2k]

The Dunedin home is about to get slammed!

[captainbarbossa19]

While there is all the talk going about Florida, one thing we should all keep in mind is that this is not your typical Texas summer. It is much drier than average. My grass has tried to die for the third or fourth time this year. Most years, it never gets anywhere close to that dry. This pattern will break eventually and we will have a LOT more rain (probably too much). Next year will almost certainly be wetter because we are in a 3rd year La Nina and it is likely to turn neutral this upcoming winter/spring. Thankfully, we are not in a Year 2 La Nina or I would be concerned about next year being similar to 2000.

[DoctorMu]

While there is all the talk going about Florida, one thing we should all keep in mind is that this is not your typical Texas summer. It is much drier than average. My grass has tried to die for the third or fourth time this year. Most years, it never gets anywhere close to that dry. This pattern will break eventually and we will have a LOT more rain (probably too much). Next year will almost certainly be wetter because we are in a 3rd year La Nina and it is likely to turn neutral this upcoming winter/spring. Thankfully, we are not in a Year 2 La Nina or I would be concerned about next year being similar to 2000.

Some of our grass is dying and I'm watering like crazy. Time to put down more Sta Green fertilizer in the front with 2% iron to mitigate our alkaline water and soil.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, I'm looking at the Gainesville, FL NOAA 3 day weather record. Two of the last 3 days, there's a T-storm about 4:30 after a high of 90-91°F. We temp cools into the 70s and stays there until the next mid-morning. Maybe 4 hours near 90°F during the day.

Here - nada rain. 12 hours of 90°F or above and 4-6 hours of 100°F per day.

[user:null]

The other thing I forgot to mention - and a main point - is that starting east of here and especially down into Florida, the whole atmospheric column is truly tropical. We’re just far enough west for the column to be tainted by the Mexican plateau and the Texas death ridges. In those tropical air columns like down in Florida, sometimes it even rains at night. Just for the heck of it!

Look at the contrast. See there are still storms down there - even with lightning. Don’t forget they are also an hour ahead - it’s 10:25 over there.

True about the tropical air columns and the differences in storm patterns compared to columns with dry-air entrainment. I remember one AFD earlier this June from the New Orleans office going into detail regarding exactly that contrast.

That said, upper flow over SE Texas has been easterly through this week, including this weekend pattern so far with deeper moisture. So those differences in the radar images can't be from the Mexican plateau (i.e. the air from there would have to advect from the southwest).

[user:null]

While there is all the talk going about Florida, one thing we should all keep in mind is that this is not your typical Texas summer. It is much drier than average. My grass has tried to die for the third or fourth time this year. Most years, it never gets anywhere close to that dry. This pattern will break eventually and we will have a LOT more rain (probably too much). Next year will almost certainly be wetter because we are in a 3rd year La Nina and it is likely to turn neutral this upcoming winter/spring. Thankfully, we are not in a Year 2 La Nina or I would be concerned about next year being similar to 2000.

Even deep into summer, I see a lot of rain in much of the Eastern US heavily influenced by mid-latitude troughs — shortwaves, vorticy effects, and other mesoscale stuff, if not full blown cyclones with fronts. That is not a tropical pattern.

So only Florida would have a tropical pattern in the way Jason's described. Also Texas and Mexico under favorable upper air regimes.

[jasons2k]

Still some moisture around today and some of the CAMs want it to rain….

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like trouble for someone.

[Stratton20]

Eh the Euro is the only model showing development, will say though we might not see much tropical activity for the whole month of august, the Atlantic basin is just not favorable right now, and that dry air looks to go no where at least in the firsr 2-3 weeks of august