July 2022
Nearly 6-7” in Beaumont today and 12” in Port Arthur. My view many places this afternoon. Wish a lot more folks could have cashed in. The entire state desperately needs what we got here in Beaumont Port Arthur. Hopefully a pattern change comes soon for everyone.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Let's just skip this month and August altogether. Already know that both are going to suck.
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 445
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Possibly the second half of July the tropics will heat up. They look to be pretty dead the next couple weeks.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 012032
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
.DISCUSSION...
With widespread rain shunted off into far Southeast Texas and
southwestern Louisiana, we have brought our flood watch to an end.
Rain is not over entirely, and we can expected isolated to
scattered showers and storms to continue into Saturday, and as a
few flood advisories today have shown, localized vulnerable spots
could still see some brief issues. However, an organized flooding
threat no longer exists. On the downside, most of the area has
also missed out on rainfall that would have been helpful in
denting drought conditions.
Looking forward, there is not really anything in the way of
assistance coming in the next week or so. Ridging builds in strong
over Texas, and typically hot July conditions take over. Some
isolated or widely scattered seabreeze storms could pop up from
day to day, but otherwise the ridge reigns supreme.
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
Well, on the one hand, we can look over at the Beaumont/Port
Arthur area and know that had yesterday`s MCV not shoved the prime
moisture feed to the east, that likely would have been Galveston
Bay instead. On the other hand, we can look at the rest of the
Sabine Valley and southwestern Louisiana, and see a widespread,
soaking rain that would have been really nice to help with our
drought conditions in the area. But regardless, the widespread
swath of rain from 95L has missed us, though some coastal
locations did see pick up some fair amount of rain still. But
there clearly is no more organized flooding threat, so the flood
watch has been canceled.
That said, lingering favorable conditions and a good amount of
moisture still exist over the area, even if the major axis of
rainfall is to our east. We can still expect isolated to scattered
storms to crop up through the afternoon, and after a bit of a lull
in the early part of the night, a return late tonight and into
tomorrow. Eventually, the upper disturbance associated with 95L
will move far enough north that rain potential will come to an
end, and we (LONG TERM SPOILER ALERT!) begin our transition to a
likely drier scenario for much of next week.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Drier and warmer conditions are the main weather stories in the
extended. Upper-level ridge axis will be centered over the Plains by
Sunday providing more subsidence. At the sfc, a southerly warm and
humid airmass will continue to filter in thanks to a sfc high over
the eastern Gulf. By the 4th of July, hot and dry weather is
anticipated as subsidence remains strong and PWATs drop below 1.7
inches. Daytime temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to around
100. With sfc dewpoints mainly in the mid 70s, heat index values
could reach advisory levels at most locations.
Ridging aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern
throughout the remainder of the workweek, leading to relatively
quiet and warm conditions. With PWATs nearing 1.5-1.7 inches through
most of the week, rain/storm chances will be minimal. A few isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the afternoon each day with
daytime heating and weak seabreeze interaction. Deterministic models
suggest temperatures into the 23 to 25 degC range across our
northern counties after Tuesday. In fact, these locations are close
to the 90th percentile of climatology for both NAEFS and GEFS
ensemble means. In simple words, it`s gonna be hot with
temperatures 4 to 10 degrees above normal. Highs will generally be
from the upper 90s to 100 deg north of I-10 and from the upper
80s to mid 90s south.
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Challenging open to the forecast as tropical moisture slowly edges
away. MVFR to IFR CIGs in place at multiple sites plus TS between
HOU and IAH. These sites have an open line for only an hour or two
to handle this. Eventually, character around the area should be
for sky to scatter out while winds become southerly. Most TS
activity is offshore and to the east, but some ISO to SCT showers
and storms may pop up - try to cover this with VCs with lack of
confidence for impact at any specific point. Overnight, SCT to BKN
clouds at MVFR (or lower?) heights expected, lifting towards mid-
day. Confidence for storms tomorrow is fairly low, but enough to
add a VCTS to the extended at IAH.
&&
.MARINE...
The threat for moderate to heavy rain and frequent lightning will
gradually diminish through early this evening. However, isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible
late tonight into Saturday morning, mainly around Galveston Bay and
for the coastal waters from Freeport to High Island. Conditions will
gradually improve by Saturday with light onshore winds and low seas
through most of the week as high pressure dominates over the
region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 94 77 98 77 / 20 30 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 77 92 78 95 78 / 30 30 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 87 83 91 83 / 40 40 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...05
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...05
FXUS64 KHGX 012032
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
.DISCUSSION...
With widespread rain shunted off into far Southeast Texas and
southwestern Louisiana, we have brought our flood watch to an end.
Rain is not over entirely, and we can expected isolated to
scattered showers and storms to continue into Saturday, and as a
few flood advisories today have shown, localized vulnerable spots
could still see some brief issues. However, an organized flooding
threat no longer exists. On the downside, most of the area has
also missed out on rainfall that would have been helpful in
denting drought conditions.
Looking forward, there is not really anything in the way of
assistance coming in the next week or so. Ridging builds in strong
over Texas, and typically hot July conditions take over. Some
isolated or widely scattered seabreeze storms could pop up from
day to day, but otherwise the ridge reigns supreme.
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
Well, on the one hand, we can look over at the Beaumont/Port
Arthur area and know that had yesterday`s MCV not shoved the prime
moisture feed to the east, that likely would have been Galveston
Bay instead. On the other hand, we can look at the rest of the
Sabine Valley and southwestern Louisiana, and see a widespread,
soaking rain that would have been really nice to help with our
drought conditions in the area. But regardless, the widespread
swath of rain from 95L has missed us, though some coastal
locations did see pick up some fair amount of rain still. But
there clearly is no more organized flooding threat, so the flood
watch has been canceled.
That said, lingering favorable conditions and a good amount of
moisture still exist over the area, even if the major axis of
rainfall is to our east. We can still expect isolated to scattered
storms to crop up through the afternoon, and after a bit of a lull
in the early part of the night, a return late tonight and into
tomorrow. Eventually, the upper disturbance associated with 95L
will move far enough north that rain potential will come to an
end, and we (LONG TERM SPOILER ALERT!) begin our transition to a
likely drier scenario for much of next week.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Drier and warmer conditions are the main weather stories in the
extended. Upper-level ridge axis will be centered over the Plains by
Sunday providing more subsidence. At the sfc, a southerly warm and
humid airmass will continue to filter in thanks to a sfc high over
the eastern Gulf. By the 4th of July, hot and dry weather is
anticipated as subsidence remains strong and PWATs drop below 1.7
inches. Daytime temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to around
100. With sfc dewpoints mainly in the mid 70s, heat index values
could reach advisory levels at most locations.
Ridging aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern
throughout the remainder of the workweek, leading to relatively
quiet and warm conditions. With PWATs nearing 1.5-1.7 inches through
most of the week, rain/storm chances will be minimal. A few isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the afternoon each day with
daytime heating and weak seabreeze interaction. Deterministic models
suggest temperatures into the 23 to 25 degC range across our
northern counties after Tuesday. In fact, these locations are close
to the 90th percentile of climatology for both NAEFS and GEFS
ensemble means. In simple words, it`s gonna be hot with
temperatures 4 to 10 degrees above normal. Highs will generally be
from the upper 90s to 100 deg north of I-10 and from the upper
80s to mid 90s south.
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Challenging open to the forecast as tropical moisture slowly edges
away. MVFR to IFR CIGs in place at multiple sites plus TS between
HOU and IAH. These sites have an open line for only an hour or two
to handle this. Eventually, character around the area should be
for sky to scatter out while winds become southerly. Most TS
activity is offshore and to the east, but some ISO to SCT showers
and storms may pop up - try to cover this with VCs with lack of
confidence for impact at any specific point. Overnight, SCT to BKN
clouds at MVFR (or lower?) heights expected, lifting towards mid-
day. Confidence for storms tomorrow is fairly low, but enough to
add a VCTS to the extended at IAH.
&&
.MARINE...
The threat for moderate to heavy rain and frequent lightning will
gradually diminish through early this evening. However, isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible
late tonight into Saturday morning, mainly around Galveston Bay and
for the coastal waters from Freeport to High Island. Conditions will
gradually improve by Saturday with light onshore winds and low seas
through most of the week as high pressure dominates over the
region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 94 77 98 77 / 20 30 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 77 92 78 95 78 / 30 30 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 87 83 91 83 / 40 40 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...05
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...05
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 445
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
I was thinking that this year was the second driest year so far for my area, but I was wrong. I just checked the climate summary at Jack Brooks Airport, and it's actually the 7th driest first-half after the June report came out. I think for others though, it might be #2 behind 2011. I know it was for Lake Charles.
https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/bptann22.txt
https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/lchann22.txt
https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/bptann22.txt
https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/lchann22.txt
Just checked the radar again - what a joke.
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 1008
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
Hard to believe Monday ended up being the best shot of rain for the week. Even then there were still a bunch of zeros. It sure is difficult to end up on the east side of a disturbance/ system when we needed it most.
Last edited by TexasBreeze on Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
And unfortunately I dont see any real opportunities for rain in the next 7-10 days, death ridge dominates yet again
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
70% chance of rain and showers Tomorrow for Beaumont according to KFDM and KBMT and NWS at 60%. I cant believe Im saying this but I dont want anymore right now. Hopefully you guys in Houston will be the winners of this percentage.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
There had been a 70% chance of rain tomorrow and now it’s down to 30%.
If you had asked me a week ago if we would be getting rain this week I would have said “yes, finally, it looks like a sure thing”
A week TC or low landfalling WEST of here was supposed to finally deliver. Nope, just another Lucy.
If you had asked me a week ago if we would be getting rain this week I would have said “yes, finally, it looks like a sure thing”
A week TC or low landfalling WEST of here was supposed to finally deliver. Nope, just another Lucy.
Honestly, yeah. I'm tired of Beaumont/Louisiana constantly cashing in on these floods: there, I said it.
It honestly drives one crazy, as if its some magical wall right at the state line. It would at least make sense if it was some sort of mountainous rain shadow — but no, it's pure flat land, meaning it literally makes no physical sense why Houston keeps losing out these rain battles with Beaumont.
I'm just sick and tired of this crap year-after-year. It felt a lot easier to get rain in the 2000s compared to the 2010s (as well as 2020s so far).
It honestly drives one crazy, as if its some magical wall right at the state line. It would at least make sense if it was some sort of mountainous rain shadow — but no, it's pure flat land, meaning it literally makes no physical sense why Houston keeps losing out these rain battles with Beaumont.
I'm just sick and tired of this crap year-after-year. It felt a lot easier to get rain in the 2000s compared to the 2010s (as well as 2020s so far).
Definitely heavenly.jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:50 am My 0.00” streak at the home base continues. My house sitters have been watering all week, again!!!
Great weather down here in Florida. Light winds. Almost no waves. Crystal clear water. Daily light show just after sunset with the east coast sea breeze coming across. Heaven…
That said, I think that there are other factors beyond ridging that allows Florida to get more rain than Texas during summer. The reason I say that is because I've seen model run after run, as well as radars, and Florida will have sea-breeze rainstorms show up even when H5 heights are as high as 594, whereas even the slightest hint of ridging over Texas (even weak 588 or 591) is enough to shut down everything.
Would landfalling even have mattered, given that it never reached depression status?jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:32 pm There had been a 70% chance of rain tomorrow and now it’s down to 30%.
If you had asked me a week ago if we would be getting rain this week I would have said “yes, finally, it looks like a sure thing”
A week TC or low landfalling WEST of here was supposed to finally deliver. Nope, just another Lucy.
On a brighter note, the 18z features a MUCH better pattern evolution than all the previous runs for today — keeps the worst heat away from Texas, and the pattern set-up as far as ridge location is more ideal in ensuring better moisture over Texas (i.e. for sea-breeze storms and more).
If you are also parched and thinking about relief...this one's for you.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Man I hope we get some more of that fun stuff this winter, beats this miserable heat wave any day
-
- Information
-
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Google [Bot], Pas_Bon and 15 guests