General Tropical Discussion Thread

[biggerbyte]

I'm concerned about the Gulf and the Caribbean from here out. We are looking at an uptick in activity, and it also looks as if conditions will finally be a spot more condusive for development in these areas. One big thing to consider, is the fact that the lack of a real energy draining system, could only mean that given the proper conditions we could have a monster of a storm, should the season finally come around.

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191743
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[Andrew]

12z Euro a lot farther south.... Hmm something to think about with the ridge strong to the north. This is what I would expect it to look like in August

[Scott747]

0z Euro is showing some home brew next week -

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

THE 00Z/21 ECMWF DEVELOPED A NEW SFC LOW WITHIN THE PERSISTENT
SHEAR ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SO WE WILL HAVE TO
SEE IF THIS HAS CONTINUITY IN LATER RUNS. THE OTHER 00Z MODELS
ARE WEAKER WITH AN OPEN WAVE APPROACHING TEXAS NEXT SAT 28
AUG...THUS THE BLENDED SOLUTION WAS APPLIED HERE AS WELL.

[Ptarmigan]

Any word on a possible tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. I read of this at the other forum.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro bring a weak disturbance as W as LA. HGX made no mention today of any rain chances from this feature.

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive wave exiting Africa tonight. We may see 2 named storms rather quickly...

[Andrew]

Also very very long range GFS does indicate we will have more to watch.

[wxman57]

Any word on a possible tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. I read of this at the other forum.

Looks like just a bit of moisture rotating westward around the base of the ridge. Might even help to increase our rain chances over the next few days.

[Rip76]

Hmmmmm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like just a bit of moisture rotating westward around the base of the ridge. Might even help to increase our rain chances over the next few days.

Good. It is hot outside. Hope that moisture is our RAID to rid that pesky cockroach ridge.

[srainhoutx]

The Gulf has looked awefully disturbed...

[ticka1]

Which direction is all that mess in the GOM heading?

[wxman57]

Which direction is all that mess in the GOM heading?

It's moving west and southwest, but the storms over water are dissipating. Some of the moisture may make it here in a few days as the ridge moves west for a while.

[srainhoutx]

For the wave behind Danielle...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

HPC is mentioning the favorable MJO pattern ahead...



[/quote]

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...this is the wave behind 96L currently over Africa...

[biggerbyte]

IF this were to make it all the way to the carribean, unless current pattern changes, this would be a southern Texas, or northern Mexico storm. For sure needs to be watched.

[wxman57]

Fantasy land and beyond the resolution lobotomy, but you can see the wave at 700 mb around 45ºW at 192 in wind field and RH max, and its looking good by day 10, only partway into fantasy land.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_252m.gif

Spaghetti- nothing below 1004 mb in the Gulf, and knowing of lower resolution, 1008- quite a few members have stretched out general 1008 mb pressures down in the BoC, but nothing that looks like a TC.

I'd have felt better if one or two perturbations, even with lower resolution, had seen something.

Better or worse?