Hurricane Danielle Western Atlantic

[srainhoutx]

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010082006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010081912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 236W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010081918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 241W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 247W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

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WHXX01 KWBC 201125
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 UTC FRI AUG 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100820 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100820  0600   100820  1800   100821  0600   100821  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.0N  25.3W   11.5N  26.5W   11.8N  28.2W   12.1N  30.2W
BAMD    11.0N  25.3W   11.4N  26.5W   12.0N  28.1W   12.6N  30.2W
BAMM    11.0N  25.3W   11.5N  26.4W   11.9N  28.1W   12.4N  30.2W
LBAR    11.0N  25.3W   11.4N  26.9W   12.3N  29.1W   13.2N  31.9W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100822  0600   100823  0600   100824  0600   100825  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.5N  32.3W   13.9N  37.2W   16.8N  44.3W   19.1N  50.9W
BAMD    13.1N  32.8W   14.0N  38.8W   15.8N  44.5W   19.7N  49.0W
BAMM    12.8N  32.5W   14.0N  37.9W   16.4N  44.5W   19.3N  50.1W
LBAR    14.1N  35.1W   15.2N  42.3W   14.7N  48.7W   19.2N  49.5W
SHIP        56KTS          81KTS          91KTS          92KTS
DSHP        56KTS          81KTS          91KTS          92KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  25.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  11.0N LONM12 =  24.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  11.0N LONM24 =  22.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[wxman57]

This one looks like as sure a prospect as we get out there. Not only do I think it'll develop into a tropical storm by Sunday/Monday, but I think it will likely become a large and powerful hurricane. Good chance it'll recurve east of the Caribbean, but I'm not 100% sure of that yet. I don't see any threat to the Gulf at this time.

[srainhoutx]

I was noticing the spin with the wave behind 95L. It appears that consolidation may take some time. When things do become better organized, we certainly could be looking at a large and powerful Hurricane.

[wxman57]

Saw that second spin just east of 95L. A small system won't be able to survive so close to a much larger developing storm. Most likely, it'll be absorbed by the bigger storm.

[biggerbyte]

Neither are a problem. 95l is tuna. Of course, that could change as 95l moves closer to the carribean, but at this point, I'm not holding my breath. Not only are the models already going fishing, but conditions still support everything in the Atlantic being pushed out to sea, Caribbean storms go to Mexico, and Gulf storms go poof.

H2010

[wxman57]

Kind of looks like an eye forming on the rotation east of the invest:

[srainhoutx]

It does wxman57...

[srainhoutx]

12Z ECMWF @ 240 hours...big shift W and a much stronger ridge if it is correct...

[biggerbyte]

If the ridge were to be set up like that graphic shows, then somebody in the gulf region would be in for some trouble. Too early to speculate, but wow.

[biggerbyte]

One thing to watch for is what looks like a possible change in this lack of positive tc support. 95l is looking good already. I would put more weight on this being a fish, as that pattern change has not yet occured. One can not ignore the possibilites, however. This could end up being our first big storm, with the first big threat to the conus.

I give it a c on the iWatch list until further evaluation as it tracks westward.

[srainhoutx]

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WHXX01 KWBC 210040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100821 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100821  0000   100821  1200   100822  0000   100822  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.1N  27.1W   11.6N  28.4W   12.1N  29.9W   13.1N  31.8W
BAMD    11.1N  27.1W   11.6N  28.7W   12.2N  30.6W   12.9N  33.0W
BAMM    11.1N  27.1W   11.7N  28.6W   12.3N  30.3W   13.1N  32.5W
LBAR    11.1N  27.1W   11.7N  29.1W   12.6N  31.9W   13.4N  35.1W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          40KTS          52KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          40KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100823  0000   100824  0000   100825  0000   100826  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  34.4W   17.7N  42.1W   19.0N  49.2W   21.1N  51.5W
BAMD    13.7N  35.5W   16.2N  40.8W   20.8N  46.0W   25.4N  51.2W
BAMM    14.2N  35.0W   17.0N  41.7W   19.4N  48.1W   22.1N  51.4W
LBAR    14.2N  38.6W   14.9N  45.7W   15.9N  50.1W   23.3N  52.1W
SHIP        65KTS          86KTS          92KTS          95KTS
DSHP        65KTS          86KTS          92KTS          95KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.1N LONCUR =  27.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  11.0N LONM12 =  26.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  11.0N LONM24 =  24.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM 

[Ptarmigan]

Something tells me this will be a major hurricane.......................

[sambucol]

Something tells me this will be a major hurricane.......................

But it's going to curve north, right?

[Ptarmigan]

But it's going to curve north, right?

I think it will be a fish storm at this time.

[sleetstorm]

95L has tropical shower and thunderstorm beleaguering it, but when you go to see it in motion on the Rainbow Infrared Satellite Image a majority of it is blocked out.

[srainhoutx]

95L is looking abit better this morning regarding organization. It will likely take a couple of more days of consolidation before we see a depression form. The entire area is caught up in a monsoonal trough and some time will be required to break free of that before development can begin in earnest IMO. It does appear that once this develops, it will be a large system.

[Paul]

going to be a big for sure.....I agree on at least some time before NHC classifies....no hurry since its a ways out there....model wise the 12z GFS trof digs all the way thru FL in fall like fashion....IMO its wayyyyy over done by the GFS....and I think the high to the north is underdone....we shall see but I am not sold on recurve just yet....


Ed- hows those westerlies in the GOM... just wanted to make sure this guy doesnt take a trip west.....

[srainhoutx]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like we have TD 6...

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AL, 06, 2010082118,   , BEST,   0, 108N,  318W,  25, 1008, TD,

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 212030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 32.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW...AND A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.