June 2022

[DoctorMu]

18z GFS still develops a weak depression/ storm as it moves west towards matagorda bay

Gimme all of this right here.

I love seeing the Euro piling on for Monday.

[DoctorMu]

CMC, GFS, ICON kick up GOM tropical systems through the forecast period.

[DoctorMu]

From FB:
Jeff Lindner

Formation chances for a tropical system up to 60% with current Eastern Atlantic wave heading in the general direction of the eastern Caribbean Sea.

[Stratton20]

Id imagine tommorow or sunday the NHC might put out an area to watch in the GOM

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Down here in Florida it takes some getting used to the weather patterns again when looking at radar loops. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to see multiple storms blossom again and again as multiple outflow boundaries go by. I’m so used to everything dying on me all the time that it’s actually playing with my mind to see the opposite for a change - haha.

Did you finally move back home?

[captainbarbossa19]

CMC, GFS, ICON kick up GOM tropical systems through the forecast period.

I noticed that. If it means lots of rain then I say, "bring it." Although, we can quickly go from a very dry pattern to the opposite. This area has experienced too many tropical flood events to encourage several systems.

[don]

0Z ICON with a tropical storm into southwest Louisiana similar to its 12Z run.

[Stratton20]

The ICON has the storm just barely moving after make landfall in Louisiana, it sits their for a day or so dropping alot of rain, kind of appears like it stalls the system to me

[don]

0Z GFS with a tropical low or Depression into Corpus

[Cromagnum]

I really hope the south Texas and Louisiana solutions don't happen. Neither one would give us much rain at all, especially if it visits our Cajun pals.

[davidiowx]

From Jeff this morning:

Weak surface low pressure may attempt to form over the northern Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week.

Surface frontal trough will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico early next week and stall across the warm waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal trough and upper level winds will become increasingly favorable for surface low pressure to form. Overnight guidance has continued the trend of weak low pressure forming somewhere along this frontal trough from off the southern Louisiana coast to off the lower TX coast early to mid next week. Guidance runs overnight have been a bit weaker in the development compared to yesterday morning, but there remains a signal suggesting that some sort of weak surface low may attempt to develop. Any weak low that forms would generally track toward the west or WNW in the low level steering flow around surface high pressure over the eastern US behind the frontal trough.

The National Hurricane Center gives the chance of development over the next 5 days at 20%.

Rain chances will increase across SE TX early next week in association with the frontal zone and trough over the region. Any potential surface low formation over the Gulf of Mexico would potentially alter the forecast by mid week along the TX coast will additional rain chances.

[don]

Time to start watching the Gulf. I wasn't expecting the NHC to say something until Sunday or Monday...6Z GFS with a tropical storm making landfall at Matagorda. 6Z RGEM is also picking up on TC genesis..

[jasons2k]

Down here in Florida it takes some getting used to the weather patterns again when looking at radar loops. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to see multiple storms blossom again and again as multiple outflow boundaries go by. I’m so used to everything dying on me all the time that it’s actually playing with my mind to see the opposite for a change - haha.

Did you finally move back home?

Not permanently but we’re at our place down here for awhile. Everything here is lush and green. I don’t miss the 100 degree heat.

[don]

6Z ICON looks like it caved from it's Louisiana solution.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Down here in Florida it takes some getting used to the weather patterns again when looking at radar loops. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to see multiple storms blossom again and again as multiple outflow boundaries go by. I’m so used to everything dying on me all the time that it’s actually playing with my mind to see the opposite for a change - haha.

Did you finally move back home?

Not permanently but we’re at our place down here for awhile. Everything here is lush and green. I don’t miss the 100 degree heat.

Good deal! I’m happy for you.

We are less than 12 months away from permanently leaving Montgomery County and splitting time between our ranch in Colorado County and Montana.

[don]

Add the NAM to the list now of models showing TC development.

Also from HGX this morning regarding tropical development.

Attention then turns to Monday night into Tuesday as deterministic
models and some ensemble means develop an area of low pressure along
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Latest GFS and NAM (00Z Sat) bring
a closed low developing along the Upper TX coast by early Tuesday,
moving inland on Wed. The ECMWF, on the other hand, remains slower
and does not develop a closed low. While there are some
disagreements with the strength and phase of this easterly wave;
models do agree in bringing an uptick in moisture. In fact,
precipitable waters are near the 90th percentile of NAEFS and GEFS
climatology with values over 2.0 inches along the coast. Confidence
in the evolution of this easterly wave and the probability of
becoming a tropical cyclone is very low at this time (20 percent per
NHC) as there are questions as to how supportive the environment
will be for tropical cyclone. With that being said, have kept a
chance for showers and thunderstorms through the period, with
better chances along and south of I-10.

The uncertainty in the forecast Wednesday and beyond is high as it
will strongly depend on the possible formation of the aforementioned
low pressure and the location of the associated quasi-stationary
boundary. As of now, given the close proximity to either the quasi-
stationary front and/or the sfc low to our region and deep moisture
in the BL, will leave the rain/storm chances wording in the
forecast Wed into Friday, with the best chances along the coast.

[djmike]

If models keep showing the Low any further into south texas we wont see much in our neck of the woods from it. Showers from and decaying front then thats it! My opinion if this comes in around Freeport to Sabine Pass we should get beneficial showers. Anything below a Freeport landfall, HOU/BMT wont see much of anything. IMO. Hopefully models trend back up the coast. Again, a weak tropical system, bring it! Anything more can go away!

[don]

If models keep showing the Low any further into south texas we wont see much in our neck of the woods from it. Showers from and decaying front then thats it! My opinion if this comes in around Freeport to Sabine Pass we should get beneficial showers. Anything below a Freeport landfall, HOU/BMT wont see much of anything. IMO. Hopefully models trend back up the coast. Again, a weak tropical system, bring it! Anything more can go away!

Not sure about Beaumont but for Houston, usually anything that hits from Matagorda-Galveston is a good spot for us rainfall wise.A Sabine landfall would be terrible for Houston as far as rain goes...

[Cpv17]

If models keep showing the Low any further into south texas we wont see much in our neck of the woods from it. Showers from and decaying front then thats it! My opinion if this comes in around Freeport to Sabine Pass we should get beneficial showers. Anything below a Freeport landfall, HOU/BMT wont see much of anything. IMO. Hopefully models trend back up the coast. Again, a weak tropical system, bring it! Anything more can go away!

Actually, that’s kinda false. Depending on the size of the system and how much it’s sheared, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana can see rain from a system that tracks into deep south Texas. The sweet spot for southeast Texas would be anywhere from Port O’Connor to Sargent. If any tc comes ashore in between those areas there’s a really good chance everyone in southeast TX will see some good rains. The north and east side of the system 9 times outta 10 is where all the action is at.

[Cromagnum]

The way this spring and summer are going I would not be surprised at all if even a TC goose-egged our region somehow.