Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

Don I will admit Im a little surprised they have a moderate zone in that area, operational models arent showing much and even the ensembles have back off quite a bit

[don]

The 12Z GFS for laughs.( I do think though TC genesis is a possibility late next week,but i doubt we'll get hurricane out of it LOL.)

[Cpv17]

Moderate probability of TC development put out by NOAA.

With the ridge over us that would squash it way down south and bury it into Tampico or Veracruz.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 wait too soon to say that, depends on the orientation of the ridge

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 wait too soon to say that, depends on the orientation of the ridge

I’m talking about for next week. GFS has been showing two systems. One next week and one in fantasyland.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 ah yeah next week, definitely would get wwuashed to that south, man we need that ridge to breakdown, i am not going to enjoy the next 10 days at or above 100 lol

[Stratton20]

CPV17 ah yeah next week, definitely would get wwuashed to that south, man we need that ridge to breakdown, i am not going to enjoy the next 10 days at or above 100 lol

[Cpv17]

Joe B thinks thinks the eastern Gulf and the rest of the southeast coast will have 10 storms and the rest of the Gulf from New Orleans on down to Mexico just 4 storms. Quite a difference.

[Stratton20]

Here is a GIF I made of the 18z GEFS, this is starting to get inside of 10 days(240 hours) on the ensembles , still favors atlantic side, also 12z NAV GEM has a string tropical storm approaching the far northern mexican coast by next wednesday fwiw

[Stormlover2020]

Joe has always been eastern

[CRASHWX]

Todays GFS 12 z now NOLA with a retrograde west and heavy rain all the way back to H-town…way out and will change many times

[Stratton20]

12z EPS, support is low but not zero

[don]

FWIW the 12Z ICON for the first time now shows the disturbance in the NW Caribbean the GFS has been developing late next week.It also shows the tropical storm off the Carolinas that the GFS has been developing.Thats a little support for the GFS now, lets see if the CMC and EURO pick up on anything.

[don]

12Z GFS showing a weak tropical storm now instead of a cane.A much more realistic scenario for this time of year.

[Stratton20]

Don even if that doest come to to fruition, we still might have something to watch,

[Stratton20]

06z GEFS with very strong support next week, no other models show anything so im pretty skeptical, that being said it is hard to ignore that kind of support

[Stratton20]

Ive seen alot of crazy long range GFS runs but tonights 00z run takes the cake, stalls a category 4 just offshore the texas coast for several days with hurricane force winds along the coast, just fantasyland, though it does start development this phantom storm in the caribbean at hour 192 so its starting development time frame isnt too far out

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro is showing something weak in the GOM by day 10.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 yep, 18z GFS starting to sniff some possible development in the NW caribbean in the days 7-9 range

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro has a system developing in the Caribbean by days 9 and 10. Looks the ridge starts to flatten out over us about that time too. I think that development is quite possible due to anomalous westerlies in the MDR and Caribbean.