May 2022

[jasons2k]

Digital gauge shows 2.16” and it runs low.

Edit: emptied 2.44” from the cylinder.

A very nice start to the week of wetness!

[djmike]

Woo hoo! 1.62” for me in Beaumont. Ill take it. Looks like you guys In HOU got a little bit more than us. Im seeing just west of Beaumont, a nice swath of 4”+. Glad we all got something and not just a teaser. Hopefully this week will help the drought and crazy temps so early this year. Happy Sunday.

[Cpv17]

I got a quarter inch lol

[DoctorMu]

Close to an inch of rain here. I'll take it!. Tuesday looks wet.

[Cromagnum]

If it rained at all here, I can't even tell. Nothing is wet.

[don]

The reason why areas south of I-10 haven't seen much rain is because of the drought feedback loop.Next best chance of rain will be Tuesday/Wednesday with a potent disturbance moving through on Tuesday and a frontal boundary moving through Wednesday.Wednesday may also have some severe weather as SPC has placed portions of the area in a Day 4 risk.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
southern Plains on Wednesday. Southwest mid-level flow will likely
be established ahead of the system across the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass is forecast ahead of the system
from the Texas Coastal plain northeastward into the mid Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys. Thunderstorm development will be possible along
this entire corridor Wednesday afternoon. The strongest instability
is forecast to remain in the lower Mississippi Valley and central
Gulf Coast states, where there is potential for organized
convection. The most likely area for a severe threat is currently
from southeast Texas eastward across Louisiana into southwest
Mississippi, where a 15 percent contour has been added. An isolated
but marginal severe threat may also develop further north into the
and Tennessee Ohio Valleys, where instability is forecast to remain
relatively weak.

[Cpv17]

Close to an inch of rain here. I'll take it!. Tuesday looks wet.

I was watching that line approach College Station last night and it literally almost fell apart right before it got there lol

[Stratton20]

Lol that MCS in the gulf got highlighted by the NHC with a 10% chance to develop, likely not going to happen, but still interesting to see none the less

[Cpv17]

My cousin in Wharton just texted me and told me he got 4.5” and all I got was a quarter inch and he only lives about 15 miles east of me. Geez

[jasons2k]

My cousin in Wharton just texted me and told me he got 4.5” and all I got was a quarter inch and he only lives about 15 miles east of me. Geez

Ouch!! Well hopefully something will come your way this week!

[Cpv17]

Lol that MCS in the gulf got highlighted by the NHC with a 10% chance to develop, likely not going to happen, but still interesting to see none the less

Now they tagged it. We now have Invest 90L in the Gulf.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I still think its unlikely to develop, running out of time over water , still some dust and shear to inhibit it

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 I still think its unlikely to develop, running out of time over water , still some dust and shear to inhibit it

It won’t develop but I just thought it was worth mentioning.

[Cpv17]

Some more rain chances on the way? Good to see this.

[don]

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue May 24 2022 - 12Z Wed May 25 2022

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND MISSOURI THROUGH EAST TEXAS...

...Middle Mississippi Valley through East Texas...

The upper trough axis near the Four Corners mentioned in the Day 2
discussion ejects east Tuesday. A sharp trough/possible upper low
forming over the central Plains by Tuesday night with a surface
low track over central Texas then up to the middle Miss Valley.
Large scale vertical motion and strong WAA at low-mid levels
continues/shifts east ahead of this low. PWATs of 1.5 to 1.75
should be focus over Oklahoma/eastern Kansas by Tuesday morning
and spread east across Missouri Tuesday where the anomaly is
around +2.5 standard deviations above the mean. Instability will
generally be limited to areas of low level convergence north of
the advancing warm front. Therefore the northern portion of the
Slight Risk area was retracted (also because of dry conditions in
northern Missouri/southern Iowa) in coordination with WFOs EAX and
DMX. MLCAPE will highest from central Texas through the Arklatex
with values ranging between 1,500-2,000 J/kg. Given the ample Gulf
moisture influx and potential presence of boundaries ahead of the
approaching cold front, the Slight Risk was expanded south/east a
little ways which now includes most of the Houston Metro (as
agreed upon by WFO HGX).

[don]

Models have shifted further south with the potent disturbance on Tuesday.Looks like a potent MCS is going to form in central Texas on Tuesday and move into SE Texas in the late morning/afternoon.Expect another MCS to develop with the front on Wednesday.

From HGX

The active weather pattern will continue through mid week as a
series of shortwaves rounding the base of an upper level trough over
the Great Plains and a cold front move through Southeast TX. To
start, a stronger shortwave moving eastward from the western TX
region will move overhead during the day Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be on the rise Tuesday morning as low level
moisture rapidly surges in from the Gulf with PWs peaking at 1.7 to
2.0 inches as the shortwave begins to pass through and storms
developing over South Central and Central TX track east and into
Southeast TX. With one hour rates of around 2.0 inches possible,
some ponding of water on roadways and low lying areas is possible.
Any minor flooding potential will depend on where the heavy rain
falls and how saturated the soil will be at that location. Something
to look out for these next few days. In addition, forecast soundings
show conditions becoming more unstable in the afternoon to evening
hours with SFC-6 km shear of 30-40 kts, mid level lapse rate a
little over 7 C/km, SFC/MU CAPE of 2,000-3,500 J/kg and DCAPE around
800-1,000 J/kg, which could allow for strong storms capable of
producing strong gusty winds and hail. SPC Day 3 Outlook has placed
a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for Tuesday/Tuesday night
mainly for damaging winds and hail.

Chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday night
into Wednesday as a cold front moves south southeast over Central TX
and pushes across Southeast TX during the day Wednesday. Strong
storms just ahead and along the front is possible and may again be
capable of producing strong winds, locally heavy rainfall, and hail.
Rain chances will cease Wednesday night as the front moves across
the coastal Gulf waters and slightly cooler/drier airmass moves in
behind it.

[Rip76]

What a nice rain cooled day here in Friendswood.

[Cpv17]

The NAM and HRRR have the MCS weakening quite a bit as it approaches southeast Texas. We needed this to come in during the pm hours so the atmosphere could take advantage of all the energy. MCS that come through during the am hours often can be weakening. The only model that I see looks good for us is the FV3 model.

[Cromagnum]

Figures. I have a 9 AM flight on Tuesday.

[don]

0Z HRRR for Tuesday