Long range model discussion

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 Lets hope not! Its already bad enough in west texas

Where I live we’re right on the border between severe and extreme drought. Luckily you guys up there have had some decent rains lately but it won’t take long before my area spreads north.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I hate to say it but it might take a weak tropical system (or at least the remnant moisture from one) to put a good dent in drought conditions out their

[Stratton20]

Whatever forms in the caribbean (if anything at all) will not be a threat to us at all, this is likely an eastern gulf threat if anything does form

[Stratton20]

12z EPS, a few more members are showing something now, some take whatever forms north into the eastern gulf while some take it into the BOC, definitely will be an interesting week ahead

[Stratton20]

12z Euro, tries to develope a weak system in the BOC, on this run ridging pretty much keeps it confined to the BOC, but something to watch, EPS ensembles come out in an hour, will be interesting to see what those show

[Stormlover2020]

Whatever forms in the caribbean (if anything at all) will not be a threat to us at all, this is likely an eastern gulf threat if anything does form

Never say it will never be a threat to us, we don’t even know where it would form if something did form.

[Stratton20]

Stormlocer2020 I should say * likely wont be a threat * lots can change, but even if something forms and thats even if it survices land interaction and shear, the steering pattern doesnt look favorable for a Texas landfall

[Stormlover2020]

Nobody knows 10 days away, all depends where ridge is at, doesn’t matter would just be rain

[Stratton20]

StormLover2020 you are right, I do expect changes in the forecast, even a weak sloppy system can cause problems

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs is caving

[Cpv17]

I think eventually we’ll get something to form in the western Caribbean but I don’t think it’s going to be from this. Look for something maybe in the second week of June.

[TexasBreeze]

Looks like the gfs is going to produce a tropical system every run and the tracks everywhere in the Gulf. Phantom systems since the time is always very late in the model.

[Stratton20]

I wouldnt worry about the GFS, most model guidance buries whatever tries to form into central america, though you can never say 100% that it cant get into the gulf so ill just keep a weary eye just in case something changes , the background environment is not very favorable yet, but even a weak sloppy system can be a prolific rain maker

[DoctorMu]

I haven't been over to S2K yet, but there's a lot of gyre conversation around, focusing on the Bay of Campeche and western Caribbean.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMU based on what im seeing, their are a few EPS and GEFS members that do try to get something going in the BOC, but most keep whatever tries to form near central america

[Cpv17]

If anything comes of this, it’ll probably be in the EPAC.

[Cpv17]

Interesting read for anyone that wants to read it.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/ba ... 53675.html

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I saw that, definitely could be scary

[Stratton20]

12z CMC sniffing out a weak area of low pressure next weekend? Could be from the tropical wave in the S.Caribbean, created a GIF to show this

[Cpv17]

Long range EPS and GEFS are in agreement that we might need to watch the western Caribbean in the first week of June.