May 2022

[Iceresistance]

Thankfully we are still in early may, other wise this would spell trouble if it was august or september thats a lot of upward rising motion on the GFS

Even May is not safe from Tropical Cyclones! The GFS is going nuts with the strongest run yet!

[cperk]

The 18z GFS has a cat 2 972mb hurricane in the south central gom on 5/27.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance thats a pretty crazy fantasy run haha, though by hour 216 is when it starts to develop, their is some ensemble support, we will “sea”

[Stratton20]

Speaking of which, for the Pro mets and mods on here, could we create a seperate group for posting “fantasy runs” just for entertainment? I feel like that would be better so that it doesn’t create a mess in this group chat for May

[Cpv17]

Speaking of which, for the Pro mets and mods on here, could we create a seperate group for posting “fantasy runs” just for entertainment? I feel like that would be better so that it doesn’t create a mess in this group chat for May

They have that on Storm2k so I don’t see why not.

[Iceresistance]

Speaking of which, for the Pro mets and mods on here, could we create a seperate group for posting “fantasy runs” just for entertainment? I feel like that would be better so that it doesn’t create a mess in this group chat for May

They have that on Storm2k so I don’t see why not.

I believe that there is already a 'Long range discussion' here, but I'll start a new one anyways since it was forgotten.

[jasons2k]

Speaking of which, for the Pro mets and mods on here, could we create a seperate group for posting “fantasy runs” just for entertainment? I feel like that would be better so that it doesn’t create a mess in this group chat for May

They have that on Storm2k so I don’t see why not.

Or, y'all could just go there during the tropics. Don't need to re-invent the wheel.

I'll be camping out over there a lot more until hurricane season is over. It's time for me to shift focus to my specialty. I've been intensely learning about tropical cyclones since Diana of 1984.

It's hard to believe all these forums started with two main ones - the PBI/Lowe's Board that later became S2K and The Weather Channel Board that morphed into..well..a lot of things....haha. The old timers know.

Special shout out to our WxInfinity members who are also involved on S2K. That said, we don't compete with each other (we don't make money, folks) we support and complement one another to deliver timely and accurate weather information to our members.

Anyone in the Houston area should prepare for a busy hurricane season now. Looks like a very busy season ahead!!

[jasons2k]

Doesn’t look any rain for a long time….get ready…

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 121338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
838 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Quick update, fog dissipating rapidly and slightly drier air
expected this afternoon. Skies also clearing quickly but still
enough moisture for some fair weather CU to develop shortly.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 403 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022/...



.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

At this point, the extended forecast feels almost like a broken
record as the recent trend of unseasonably warm weather with
little to no rainfall looks to continue through the weekend and
well into next week. During this time, daily high temperatures
will continue to run about 7-10 degrees above seasonal normals for
mid-May, and additional daily high max/high min temperature
records will likely be under threat.

Saturday brings us our only (albeit very limited) chance of
precipitation over the duration of the extended periods as upper
ridging slightly loses its grip over the Central CONUS with the
slow approach of an upper low from the east. A few embedded
mid/upper disturbances will pass to our northeast, with the bulk
of all resultant showers and storms falling outside of our area.
However, it`s still conceivable that locations east of I-45 see
some isolated activity and as a result have maintained current
slight chance PoPs in the forecast.

Heat quickly becomes the main story again as upper ridging
strengthens heading into the beginning of next week while the
eastward departure of surface high pressure over the Central Gulf
will promote a steadier onshore flow. Highs throughout the next
week will reach the mid to upper 90s inland and near 90 along the
coast, which combined with increasing surface dewpoints should
produce heat index values in the 100s and afternoon WBGT values of
up to 85. Head safety precautions will continue to be critical for
the foreseeable future, particularly with this being an early
season heat event with limited seasonal heat acclimation amongst
the population as a result. Continue to stay hydrated and avoid
strenuous outdoor activity during the hottest part of the day if
possible.

Cady


.AVIATION [12Z TAF Update]...

A mix of IFR TO VFR conditions to start out the day with some patchy
fog and stratus around the area. This should mix out fairly quickly
after sunrise and msunny/mclr skies and VFR conditions prevailing
from mid morning into the overnight hours. Similar set up tonight
with some patchy fog developing late. 47


.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue to prevail during the day
today as surface high pressure continues to shift westward. These
light winds will gradually increase heading into the weekend as
the surface high slowly shifts back towards the Central Gulf. Wind
speeds may approach caution criteria, but are unlikely to exceed
it for a significant amount of time until late next week. Seas
will remain around 2-4 feet trough the middle of next week.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 94 69 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 70 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 87 77 89 76 88 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...45

[Cpv17]

Doesn’t look any rain for a long time….get ready…

Like I’ve been saying for the past month, the only way I can see us get any rain would be from the tropics. At least you’ve gotten a couple inches over the past few weeks.

[jasons2k]

Doesn’t look any rain for a long time….get ready…

Like I’ve been saying for the past month, the only way I can see us get any rain would be from the tropics. At least you’ve gotten a couple inches over the past few weeks.

Thank you. Yes, indeed, we have had some thankful rains over the last couple of weeks.

[DoctorMu]

Drier and slightly cooler air filtered in today. Good dog walking and jogging weather this evening.

[DoctorMu]

Rain chance are looking slim to none and Slim just left the building. Not even a sea breeze on the horizon.



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1204 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Light SE/ESE winds will allow patchy fog to develop across most
of the region tonight. MVFR to IFR visibility will be possible
across most of SE Texas with IFR to LIFR conditions possible at
KCXO and KLBX. MVFR to IFR CIGS will be possible with this fog.
Decided to shorted the duration and extent of patchy fog given
the larger dewpoint spread compared to last night. Fog will burn
off and CIGS will scatter out Friday morning. Light SSW winds in
the morning will back to the S/SSE through the day, becoming light
Friday night. Patchy fog will be possible once again Friday
Night.
03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 700 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

Hot weather continues. An upper trough lifts from UT into WY with
upper ridging across TX with a cut off low off the FL/GA coast
drifting slowly westward. The ridging over SETX will weaken slightly
tonight and Friday.

Overnight expect temperatures to slowly fall into the 70s and 60s
with mostly clear skies. Toward morning some patchy fog and lower
clouds will develop as winds become light and variable to calm.
Friday southerly flow redevelops and again we warm up quickly into
the mid 80s by 10-11am. Temperatures again reach up into the lower
to mid 90s during the afternoon. Still some slightly drier air over
the region which helps to limit the heat indicies. Rain chances over
Louisiana Friday afternoon should expand southwestward but will be
fighting against a very strong cap over SETX and don`t expect them
to reach the area but may be lurking off to the east Saturday
morning. More on that below.

As for rain we can use some more in SETX. Currently D3 drought
covers the areas from Wharton to near Freeport southwestward and D0-
D2 from Caldwell to Houston to Groveton southward.

45


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

By Saturday, an upper level cutoff low begins to retrograde and
push west, but most of the moisture and forcing will hover near
the Mississippi River Valley. Trying to be optimistic and kept
some slight chance PoPs around 10% for areas east of I-45 on
Saturday afternoon, but models have slowly been getting drier for
Southeast Texas on Saturday. Therefore, a few isolated showers
are possible on Saturday with rainfall accumulations a few
hundredths of an inch at most, but like I said, that`s being
optimistic.

If you`re hoping for more rain in the forecast, then don`t hold
your breath because there are no other noticeable rain chances for
the rest of the long term forecast. After the low/trough on
Saturday pushes east again, a persistent high pressure and ridge
builds in overhead. With 850mb heights and temps rising combined
with southwesterly flow aloft, temperatures will steadily increase
Sunday onwards. Daytime highs reach the upper 90s inland and upper
80s along the coast. Heat index values also reach the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees for the rest of the week. Overnight lows will
also be warm and reach the low to mid 70s most evenings.

Lenninger


.MARINE...

Southerly to southwesterly flow will persist through next week as
high pressure systems build in overhead, push out, and then
build back in again. Wind speeds might hover near Caution
criteria at times, but seas will still remain near 2 to 4 feet
through late next week.

Lenninger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 92 69 95 70 98 / 0 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 70 95 71 96 / 0 0 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 88 78 89 / 0 0 10 10 0

&&

[DoctorMu]

I guess we'll be tropical model watching/fantasizing for awhile. With La Nina potentially getting wrecked by the Kelvin wave, it may be difficult to titrate placid tropical lemonade our way. TCs could be nastier than ever this season.

[captainbarbossa19]

I guess we'll be tropical model watching/fantasizing for awhile. With La Nina potentially getting wrecked by the Kelvin wave, it may be difficult to titrate placid tropical lemonade our way. TCs could be nastier than ever this season.

Need to watch for a transition to ENSO neutral this fall. If that happens, historically our odds increase for hurricane impacts.

[Cromagnum]

Saw what looks like the SW edge of a backdoor front kicking off thunderstorms in the eastern half of our viewing area Saturday night. Something to watch.

[DoctorMu]

"Only" 90°F. S10 breeze. DP in the 60s. Partly cloudy. Not too bad out! Would take this all summer.

[captainbarbossa19]

On the bright side, tomorrow evening the weather should be great to see this!



Source: HGX Weather Service

[Cpv17]

Possible pattern change coming in about 7-10 days from now. Wouldn’t count on it happening yet but there’s a possibility at least.

[DoctorMu]

On the bright side, tomorrow evening the weather should be great to see this!



Source: HGX Weather Service

I think you mean the dark side.

But it will likely be clear!