Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:15 pm
I hope we get a tropical system ( not a hurricane though) this summer, thay wouls greatly benefit us and the whole state, at this point it would take a tropical system to extinguish the drought
In 2011 & 2012, several members wanted a Tropical Cyclone in SE Texas just to destroy the drought. You know it's really bad if they wanted a TC to help get rid of the drought.
Yes, we were cheering for Don. Anything.
I’ll gladly take a quick-moving low-end tropical cyclone to open the season and moisten Texas up going into summer.
But there's a consensus of a large gradient of rain favoring N between Hearne and Galveston, especially around NW Harris Co. CLL may get lucky, but any line of showers that fizzles out could be a bust anywhere along that gradient and south. We'll see.
12z EURO looks much improved on QPF totals through 10 days. The GFS also shows an additional chance of rain within 10 days. I am beginning to become more hopeful. Honestly, a quarter inch to half would be welcomed at this point. It feels like our area either has the water running too fast at once or it is completely shut off.
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 4:23 pm
12z EURO looks much improved on QPF totals through 10 days. The GFS also shows an additional chance of rain within 10 days. I am beginning to become more hopeful. Honestly, a quarter inch to half would be welcomed at this point. It feels like our area either has the water running too fast at once or it is completely shut off.
Euro has less of gradient for Monday's front. I'd take it.
Per the recent NWS discussion, the closer to the coast you are located, the more stable the air is Monday evening, reducing rain prob.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
614 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022
.AVIATION...
Already seeing some MVFR stratus setting up near the coast. Look
for this to gradually spread inland through the mix, and similar
to the past several days, lift and mix out during the mid and late
morning hours. Breezy south winds again on Sunday, though maybe
not quite as high as the past few days. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022/
SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow Night]...
Having a case of deja vu on the forecast today cause it`s
essentially the same as yesterday`s with partly cloudy skies,
breezy south-southeasterly winds, and warm temperatures. Like last
night, expect overcast skies to return, but give way to partly
cloudy skies during the daytime hours tomorrow. The cloud cover
combined with southerly winds will keep overnight lows in the low
70s along the coast and mid to upper 60s inland. The breaks in the
clouds Sunday afternoon will help to bring high temperatures up
into the mid to upper 80s across the area, and may even hit 90 in
spots if there is enough sunlight. WAA strengthens Sunday night
ahead of an approaching cold front resulting in near record high
minimum temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the area.
The aforementioned cold front is currently slowly passing through
north Texas. It will stall out around the Red River Valley area late
tonight through Sunday evening before returning on its trek eastward
Sunday night. The majority of the impacts from this front will occur
in the Long Term below, but there will be a slight chance of
isolated prefrontal showers across the Burleson-Houston County line
just before sunrise Monday. Fowler
LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...
The main weather maker this go around is the cold front that will
be moving into the area late Monday into Tuesday. Guidance is
very bullish for slow moving deep convection across the areas just
to the northwest of the CWA Monday afternoon but sagging
southward. During the afternoon have high POPs over the northern
areas with the potential for slow moving storms with PW 1.6-1.85"
as the trailing short wave arrives and the right entrance region
gets into the region. Locally heavy rain rates look a little more
likely. As the s/w closes in on the area it should be weakening so
and instability decreases Monday evening and could see storms
devolve into a mix of stratiform with embedded with showers and
thunderstorms. The northern areas in the afternoon have noticeably
more instability around 2500 j/kg while closer to the coast
500-1200 j/kg. Will keep the mention of locally heavy rain in the
forecast Monday night into the Houston area but that is probably
out of an abundance of caution given the decreasingly unfavorable
environment but the guidance has been occasionally showing short
periods that could support more wind/cold pool capable storms that
may favor a push southward from the current forecast and to
persists a little longer. The front continues to push south and
then off the coast Tuesday morning and rain chances should shift
down into the southwest counties (showers) and then out over the
Gulf waters. Cooler and drier weather Tuesday into Wednesday
before the onshore flow returns and the moisture starts coming
back. The southeasterly flow strengthens Thursday and will headed
back into above normal temperatures. Low rain chances for the
weekend and as of 12z the GFS/ECMWF have very different solutions
with a front pushing into the area or full on southerly flow. Have
trended toward the warmer southerly solution. 45
MARINE...
Seas of 5-8 feet and winds 15 to around 20 knots should be the
norm well into Sunday evening before the winds gradually come down
prior to the front and winds get a bit wobbly/back. SCA flag
should wave through through 7 pm Sunday then will probably need a
mix of SCA/SCEC before the cold front pushes through and SCA
conditions redevelop with the offshore near 20 knot flow. Front
stalls then turns back north and rain chances tail off. 45
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:03 pm
18z GFS looks fantastic but unfortunately most of it is 10 days out. Doesn’t show that much for Monday/Tuesday unless you’re well north of 10.
...and that rain around May 3 looks like an ULL trailing a cold front. The forecast is likely to change 10-11 days out.
Monday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 84. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 63. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 84. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 63. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
We need the big payoff Monday. Two really pleasant days after that. Then the Big Suck begins in earnest on Friday with no abatement possibly? Back to 5°F+ above normal, closer to the beginning of June rather that late April, early May.
GFS still has the ULL post May 3 front. It's gone on CMC. Euro also has the next rain on May 3/4.
don wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:59 am
The HRRR looks really nice tomorrow for those of us north of I-10 atleast.
Dang! I hope this verifies. For me, this would probably be the biggest rain event of the year so far.
Yeah that would be good for y’all north of 10. Looks like I’ll have to wait till May 2nd/3rd for some action. But I don’t have much faith In that happening since it’s 8 or so days out.
don wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:59 am
The HRRR looks really nice tomorrow for those of us north of I-10 atleast.
Dang! I hope this verifies. For me, this would probably be the biggest rain event of the year so far.
Yeah that would be good for y’all north of 10. Looks like I’ll have to wait till May 2nd/3rd for some action. But I don’t have much faith In that happening since it’s 8 or so days out.
