April 2022

[Cpv17]

Not good:

Your normal average person doesn’t understand this. A lot of people I talk to think we don’t even need any rain.

[captainbarbossa19]

Not good:

Your normal average person doesn’t understand this. A lot of people I talk to think we don’t even need any rain.

Right. We certainly need rain. It is important to note that this year is still closer in similarity to 2021 than 2011. Note the exceptional drought category present in the eastern part of the state in 2011. Currently, only severe drought is the highest category. This was also true for at this time in 2021. However, if we do not see any significant rain for several more weeks, we will certainly be closer to 2011 similarities.

I am not going to be very concerned though until we are well into May without any rain. May has been known in the past to undo severe droughts in the past. I am not saying it will happen, but last year we were thinking a severe drought was on its way, and then May came.

[Cpv17]

Not good:

Your normal average person doesn’t understand this. A lot of people I talk to think we don’t even need any rain.

Right. We certainly need rain. It is important to note that this year is still closer in similarity to 2021 than 2011. Note the exceptional drought category present in the eastern part of the state in 2011. Currently, only severe drought is the highest category. This was also true for at this time in 2021. However, if we do not see any significant rain for several more weeks, we will certainly be closer to 2011 similarities.

I am not going to be very concerned though until we are well into May without any rain. May has been known in the past to undo severe droughts in the past. I am not saying it will happen, but last year we were thinking a severe drought was on its way, and then May came.

It’s going to depend on the SOI imo.

[DoctorMu]

Not good:

Damn, that looks like we're revisiting the last 10 year cycle. Deja vu all over again.

[Stratton20]

Their is some room for optimism in terms of much needed rainfall for most of the state, models are indicating around the day 5-6 period a frontal passage with widespread moderate precipitation, fingers crossed models are showing anywhere from .5 to as much as 3-4 inches right now , this would be badly needed

[jasons2k]

It’s already up to 87 here.

Weather Channel app shows 90% chance of rain on Monday.
Another Lucy tease?

[Cpv17]

It looks like most of the rain next week will be mainly north and west of southeast Texas. Hopefully it expands more to include us too.

[captainbarbossa19]

It looks like most of the rain next week will be mainly north and west of southeast Texas. Hopefully it expands more to include us too.

It may not seem like good news, but if this happens, our chances of severe drought will likely decrease. What gets us every severe drought is when we are in drought along with areas to our north and west. If areas to our west start getting rain, it should eventually spread our way too.

[djmike]

Remember. 90% chance of rain can mean mist and sprinkles and be done unfortunately. I went a long time thinking the percentages meant heavy or light rain. Hopefully its come to fruition and we get a decent moderate to heavy rain.

[Stratton20]

Latest GFS run shows 2-4 inches of rain in my area next wednesday, fingers crossed!

[Iceresistance]

I hope we get a tropical system ( not a hurricane though) this summer, thay wouls greatly benefit us and the whole state, at this point it would take a tropical system to extinguish the drought

In 2011 & 2012, several members wanted a Tropical Cyclone in SE Texas just to destroy the drought. You know it's really bad if they wanted a TC to help get rid of the drought.

[captainbarbossa19]

I hope we get a tropical system ( not a hurricane though) this summer, thay wouls greatly benefit us and the whole state, at this point it would take a tropical system to extinguish the drought

In 2011 & 2012, several members wanted a Tropical Cyclone in SE Texas just to destroy the drought. You know it's really bad if they wanted a TC to help get rid of the drought.

Well lately, our area has been impacted by a tropical cyclone every 1-2 years. Given the persistent state of ENSO, I just hope we can avoid hurricanes and only have weak tropical storms with lots of rain. Of course, sometimes our weather turns wet without impacts from TCs. I am just cheering on a wet May for now.

[captainbarbossa19]

On a different note, the latest EURO has around 1 inch of rain for most of the area coming up next week. My area is in the dry slot, but it is too early to know where the heaviest amounts will occur. GFS is less optimistic and has heavier amounts to our north. I am pulling for the EURO solution.

[DoctorMu]

Interesting. The Mesos are picking up some light seabreeze or streamer showers Saturday and/or Sunday. The rain chance on NOAA are up to 70% Monday with the front, but the precip. also looks light.

I sure would take a brief shower a day for the next 3 days.

[Katdaddy]

Yep we could sure use some decent rains down here also but I am not hoping for tropical cyclone to help with the ongoing drought.

[Stratton20]

Definitely hoping we dont get any hurricane visits this season, but I would take a weak depression/storm, these frontal passages with rains are not going to be enough to extinguish this drought, especially for west texas , unless we get some sort of pattern change in may, its not looking good folks

[DoctorMu]

SE 21 G34 This wind means business and it will likely be stronger tomorrow!

Tropical lemonade would be welcome this summer.

[Iceresistance]

I'm now expecting 2-4 inches of rainfall by Sunday.

[jasons2k]

NWS has lowered my rain chances back down to 50% Monday Night. TWC shows 80%. We really need it for sure.

[captainbarbossa19]

NWS has lowered my rain chances back down to 50% Monday Night. TWC shows 80%. We really need it for sure.

We sure do. My hydrangeas were starting to wilt yesterday due to the drought. Usually, I do not have to start watering them until summer. Ugh. Maybe May will do something more than April has so far.