000
FXUS64 KHGX 191130
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Light E/NE winds early today will give way to gusty SE winds later
this morning and continue throughout the day. Cloud cover will
slowly fill in this morning, with BKN VFR CIGS developing in the
late afternoon. Winds should relax across most terminals this
evening as mixing ceases, though gusty winds will continue
overnight at KGLS. MVFR CIGS will creep in from the west
overnight, with light showers possible at KCLL, KUTS and KCXO.
Decided to exclude VCSH in the TAFS given the low spatial
coverage. MVFR CIGS should lift back to VFR Wednesday afternoon.
03
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
Muggy conditions will begin to develop across SE Texas today as a
surface high over the Middle Mississippi Valley pushes into the
Southeastern CONUS. As this high pressure advances towards the
southeast, east/northeasterly winds this morning will become
southeasterly by afternoon. This southeasterly flow will funnel
warm, moist Gulf air into the region, bringing highs in the upper
70s and intimating a warming trend throughout the week. Cloudy skies
will develop in the afternoon and continue to fill in overnight as
moisture increases across the region. A few light showers will be
possible late tonight into early Wednesday as weak shortwaves stream
over the region. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Breezy weather is on the tap for Wednesday as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of another surface low over the Central Plains.
Partly cloudy skies will continue throughout the day, with a few
light showers possible north of I-10 during the morning as more weak
shortwaves stream through our area. Highs will continue to warm,
reaching the mid to low 80s during the day. Increased moisture and
cloud cover will allow for lows in the 70s overnight, slightly
warmer than the previous night.
03
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
The theme for the first half of the long term period can be
summarized with "copy & paste"...or "deja vu" if you wanna get
fancy. The overall synoptic pattern doesn`t change all that much
for the rest of the work week with high pressure to our east
leaving us with a steady flow of southeasterlies fresh off of the
Gulf. Combine that with an upper-level ridge prevailing into
Saturday and we have the perfect setup for humidity and hot
temperatures to keep on thrivin` and survivin`. Expect highs on
Thursdays to reach the upper 80s. On Friday, an upper-level
trough moves into the Western CONUS and amplifies the flow aloft.
With winds aloft becoming more southwesterly, we can expect a
slight bump up in temperatures as we see a few spots reach the low
90s on Friday and Saturday. The nights will be warm and muggy as
per usual with cloud cover filling back in after sunset each night and
low temperatures mainly in the upper 60s/low 70s. Rain chances
are essentially zero through Saturday though, if that`s any
consolation.
The previously mentioned upper-level trough will also generate lee
cyclogenesis east of the Rockies with corresponding surface low
pressure developing in the Central Plains. This will be the source
of a cold front that is expected to push through Southeast Texas
early next week and bring us our next best chance of
showers/thunderstorms. Moisture steadily increases out ahead of
the front on late Sunday, but the big surge of moisture comes
along the frontal boundary as PW values increase to 1.6"-1.8".
This is well above even the 90th percentile of 1.57", so heavy
rain will certainly be possible with this FROPA. The 00Z GFS/Euro
currently points to a late Monday/early Tuesday FROPA with no
signs of briefly stalling it out, which is a (good) change from
yesterday`s model run. With this still being a week out, I stayed
mainly in line with deterministic NBM guidance as far as
temperatures go. There`s still time for things to change, but
seeing 50s in the grids once again for the post-FROPA nights is
something we love to see.
Batiste
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure moving eastward will lead to the return of
onshore flow through the remainder of the week. The persistent
moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly winds will keep seas
elevated in the 6-8 foot range for most of the week. The current
string of cautions and advisories extends through Tuesday night, but
these will likely get extended. Cautions and advisories will likely
be needed into the weekend as the synoptic pattern does not change
all that much until early next week. This is when a cold front looks
to push offshore and bring a period of offshore flow and the next
best chance of rain.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 67 86 70 88 / 0 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 69 82 70 87 / 0 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 76 72 77 74 83 / 0 10 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Wednesday morning
for the following zones: Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...Batiste
AVIATION...Brokamp
MARINE...Batiste
