April 2022

[DoctorMu]

Trending better for 12/13th rain but mostly east of CLL.

[Cromagnum]

The way 2022 has gone, I'll be pulling the sprinklers out next week too.

I'm waiting for the 12z Euro, but I am actually more encouraged about model trends. The Euro had a rather significant southward shift in precipitation between yesterday's 12z run and the 0z Thursday run. The GFS is about the same between runs, but what matters is if the rainfall is decreasing overall or shifting away from the region. In these cases, the trends are encouraging.

The 12z Euro was still a no go for most of us. It’s really favoring the Golden Triangle and LA/MS. Need it to trend wsw a good 100 miles.

Louisiana and Dixie Alley has been a hot bed already this year. The west Texas desert keeps moving more east all the time.

[Iceresistance]

I'm waiting for the 12z Euro, but I am actually more encouraged about model trends. The Euro had a rather significant southward shift in precipitation between yesterday's 12z run and the 0z Thursday run. The GFS is about the same between runs, but what matters is if the rainfall is decreasing overall or shifting away from the region. In these cases, the trends are encouraging.

The 12z Euro was still a no go for most of us. It’s really favoring the Golden Triangle and LA/MS. Need it to trend wsw a good 100 miles.

Louisiana and Dixie Alley has been a hot bed already this year. The west Texas desert keeps moving more east all the time.

The Drought Feedback loop is really showing itself, but that pattern will break eventually.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS has backed off on rain totals somewhat

[jasons2k]

Article about the Texas drought:

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/stat ... 35445.html

[Cpv17]

According to the GFS, we need to be watching for some severe weather next Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

[Iceresistance]

The High Parameters for severe storms have trended south on the GFS, it's currently as far south as South-Central Oklahoma

[jasons2k]

This perpetual north wind is getting old. I’m ready for things to calm down and settle into our seabreeze pattern. I’m just done with it.

[DoctorMu]

Another beautiful day with low humidity in CLL. I just need our sprinklers fixed!

Humidity is on the rise this weekend, but no rain until Tuesday/Wednesday. Concerned about a bust.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro looks a bit better today. Fingers crossed we can all cash in with at least an inch or two.

[Cpv17]

The GFS is no longer looking good for rain next week.

[srainhoutx]

Just in case anyone misses winter, it's snowing in the Smoky Mountains this evening.

[captainbarbossa19]

The GFS is no longer looking good for rain next week.

The rain is back now. Lol

[Cpv17]

These systems that are coming out from the west are ejecting out too far north for us really have any significant rain chances. Till we see some dig into Southern California/Baja Peninsula and eject out across Mexico and Texas, don’t get your hopes up.

[Stratton20]

I just dont see any significant rain chances worth talking about over the next 10-14 days, the system next week looks meh

[Cpv17]

I just dont see any significant rain chances worth talking about over the next 10-14 days, the system next week looks meh

Actually after next week I see some better rain chances but that’s too far out to have any confidence in that. We just need these systems to dig further south before ejecting. When you see these lows going over Kansas and Nebraska, you can forget about any decent rains around here.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep I think ridging is too prevalent to allow any of those systems to dive further south, at least the way it stands right now, west texas especially needs the rain badly

[DoctorMu]

Massive gradient for rainfall from west to east Texas over the next two weeks. 1.5 inches from I-45 east.

West of I-35 looks bad.

[Iceresistance]

There's a Marginal Risk on Tuesday for SE Texas, but I'm in the HATCHED Enhanced risk.

[Stratton20]

im under a slight risk