April 2022

[DoctorMu]

Severe storms may just graze us to the north. It's going to be close.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu lets hope they stay to the north of CS, but I wouldnt be that surprised if we get a strong storm or two, but definitely think the. highest severe threat will be to the north of us in that enhanced risk area, still CS is on the edge of the slight risk zone so it cant be completely ignored

[Cpv17]

First half of April is looking very ugly. And by that I mean no rain.

[DoctorMu]

It looks like a strong midlevel cap in the HOU area Monday night, so development of storms is hindered. Even iffy in CLL. We'll see.

[Stratton20]

Yep I see a prolonged stretch of dry weather after tommorow rain , dont see much in the way of rain for at least the next 10-14 days beyond tommorow

[Cpv17]

It looks like a strong midlevel cap in the HOU area Monday night, so development of storms is hindered. Even iffy in CLL. We'll see.

Of course it’s going to be capped. The main area of energy will be well north of us.

[jasons2k]

It looks like a strong midlevel cap in the HOU area Monday night, so development of storms is hindered. Even iffy in CLL. We'll see.

Of course it’s going to be capped. The main area of energy will be well north of us.

Get ready to run the sprinklers! It doesn't look like much rain is in the forecast!

[Iceresistance]

Got 1.8 inches of rain last night, did not expect that at all!

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 040959
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
459 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow/Tuesday Night]...

Elevated southerly winds just above the surface appears to be keep-
ing fog from developing across SE TX this morning. However, there`s
plenty of low clouds as moisture continues to move in from the Gulf.
These overcast skies are expected persist for much of the day...and
should keep daytime high temperatures to around 80. This strong WAA
could produce isolated streamer showers later this morning and then
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm by this afternoon.

Per trends from previous forecasts...the best chances for strong to
possibly severe weather for SE TX now looks to be tonight (with the
approach and passage of the elongated mid/upper level trof from the
SW). Current thinking still going with thunderstorms developing at/
over NTX late this afternoon evolving to a mesoscale convective sy-
stem (MCS) that will then move southeast through the night. Progged
timing has this system entering our northern CWA around just before
midnight...then exiting to the east/southeast around sunrise Tues.

The main severe weather hazard from this line will be strong winds,
but hail and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. There`s been very
little change to the latest SPC Outlook for SE TX with the Enhanced
Risk just clipping our northernmost county (Houston) and the Slight
Risk over the northern third of our CWA.

In the wake of the storms, mid/upper level subsidence will help dry
things out across SE TX. This along with clearing skies and wester-
ly winds developing through the day could lead to very warm temper-
atures for Tues afternoon. Current guidance going with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Wednesday`s temperature forecast still looks to be a challenge. Models
are showing timing differences for the cold front. For now, will continue
to forecast highs in the upper 70s to around 80 across our northern
counties and upper 80s to around 90 near/around the Highway 59/69 corridor.
However, temperatures could end up warmer if the front ends up slower
or they could end up cooler if the front ends up faster. Still expecting
no rain with this front, and look for the winds to shift to the northwest
and north behind the boundary. Surface high pressure gradually building/ridging
into the state in combination with a pretty decent/deep northwest flow
aloft will set up through the remainder of the week and on into the
first half of the weekend resulting in cool nights (lows in the 40s/50s),
mild/warm days (highs mainly in the 70s on Thursday and Friday and around
80 on Saturday) and also no rain. The pattern begins to change on Saturday
night and Sunday as surface high pressure moves off to the east and
the northwest flow aloft begins to flatten out. A strengthening onshore
flow looks to return to the area at that time as surface pressures fall
off to our west (responding to the next developing system) and bring
breezy/windy conditions along with increasing clouds back to the area
to close out the weekend and into start of the new week. Expect lows
mainly in the 50s Saturday night and 60s Sunday night, and highs in
the 80s on Sunday and Monday.

42

&&

.MARINE...

A mainly moderate onshore flow will persist until the next cold front
moves across the area during the day on Wednesday. Some showers and
possible thunderstorms could occur through Tuesday morning, but the
cold front on Wednesday will be dry. Moderate to strong offshore winds
and building seas can be expected to develop in the wake of the front,
likely requiring caution and advisory flags through late Friday or Friday
night. An onshore flow will return to the area on Saturday and will
then strengthen through the end of the weekend and on into the start
of next week. At this time, strong and gusty onshore winds and rough
seas are anticipated, and advisories will eventually be needed.

42

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Given the elevated southerly winds just above the surface (20-30kt),
we are seeing more BKN MVFR ceilings versus fog this morning. Trends
of increasing low-level moisture and strong onshore winds will like-
ly continue through the day today, so will be keeping a BKN/OVC deck
in place. Isolated streamer showers this morning could strengthen to
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, but limited instability and a
general lack of confidence as to which locations will be most favor-
able for any activity to form will keep the mention of precipitation
to VCSH for now. Conditions should gradually deteriorate to IFR/LIFR
late this evening ahead of the next cold front that will move across
the region overnight into Tues morning. Southerly winds will prevail
through the period, strengthening this afternoon with gusts up to 20
kt possible. 41

&&

.CLIMATE...

We might end up flirting with near record high temperatures on Tuesday
(4/5). Here are the record highs and their date of occurrence for our
four major climate sites.

CLL: 93 set in 1936 (records date back to 1889)
IAH: 91 set in 1982 (records date back to 1890)
HOU: 90 set in 1982 (records date back to 1931)
GLS: 90 set in 1982 (records date back to 1875)

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 67 90 63 79 / 40 60 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 69 89 67 86 / 40 50 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 76 69 81 70 82 / 40 40 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Cromagnum]

Watered the yard yesterday and today. So I'm sure we will get rain now!

[DoctorMu]

It looks like a strong midlevel cap in the HOU area Monday night, so development of storms is hindered. Even iffy in CLL. We'll see.

Of course it’s going to be capped. The main area of energy will be well north of us.

Get ready to run the sprinklers! It doesn't look like much rain is in the forecast!

My sprinklers were killed by Frontier. Trying to get someone to fix this week!

[Cpv17]

The past few runs of the GFS have been looking a bit more encouraging as we head towards mid month.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041554
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1054 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
Cloudy start this morning with warm east southeasterly flow.
Expect with heating that scattered showers should develop below
the strong cap. AMDAR soundings showing saturation below 800mb and
then consistently capping of around 15.5C at 750mb will need to
get up to around 80 to overcome the cap. Some minor adjustments to
the short term with scattered showers developing around noon
mainly in the west but by early afternoon shifts east and
northeast with the potential for isolated thunderstorms. By late
afternoon the thunderstorm coverage could increase with the weaker
cap.

SPC forecasts have nudged the threat a little further north.
Looking at the short term guidance the severe threat (primarily
wind) would probably come over the northern areas (generally
north of a Madisonville to Groveton line). Some of this guidance
also showing some strong storms initiating off of Old Faithful and
moving toward the southwestern counties only to weaken as they
arrive 06-08z.

45

[jasons2k]

The future radar on the Accuweather channel doesn’t show much forming down here.

[captainbarbossa19]

The past few runs of the GFS have been looking a bit more encouraging as we head towards mid month.

This year is strikingly similar to last year. At this time last year, we were experiencing a very similar dry spell. I would not be surprised to see the end of the month turn wetter.

[Iceresistance]

A LOT of rain fell since Yesterday, now under a Flash Flood Warning.

I had 4 Thunderbangs today, #1 & #3 were BIG, #1 & #4 Jumpscared me.

I'll check the final rain totals Tomorrow even though it's no longer raining at my house

[Cromagnum]

So much for that. Barely got a light mist from the last 24 hours.

[Stratton20]

No surprise, this was expected to be a non event for SE Texas, dont really see any decent rain chances again until about the days 7-10 in the GFS, we are expected to hit 90-92 today in CS, ugh!

[mcheer23]

Rainfall totals the next 7 days...yikes... 2nd half of the month just might be more on the wet side. Stay tuned.
More severe weather is also likely in North Texas and Oklahoma next Monday.

[Iceresistance]

A LOT of rain fell since Yesterday, now under a Flash Flood Warning.

I had 4 Thunderbangs today, #1 & #3 were BIG, #1 & #4 Jumpscared me.

I'll check the final rain totals Tomorrow even though it's no longer raining at my house

Final Totals: 2.4 inches of rain