March 2022

[DoctorMu]

the HRRR continues to show more stable air across Central Texas and the weakening of storms along 35. Something to keep an eye on for the next hour or two.

Very good news if that holds out. The supercell wagon train is headed in this general direction.

[DoctorMu]

Oof! That storm near Luling..watch out! It’s looking nasty.

Yeah - that's the one that *could* take a ride up Hwy 21 toward BCS.

[DoctorMu]

Mesoscale Discussion 0295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...

Valid 212232Z - 220000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch #054.
Large hail, damaging gusts and tornadoes may accompany any mature
storm within the watch. A corridor of greater severe potential is
likely developing near Austin, TX and will progress northeast
through the remainder of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells, thunderstorm clusters, and linear
segments have developed across the western portions of Tornado Watch
#054 over the past couple of hours, with a history of tornadoes near
Jacksboro and Bowie Texas. Storms continue to develop ahead of a
Pacific front/dryline just west of the I-35 corridor, and are
advancing east into a buoyant airmass. These storms are also
progressing toward the axis of the low-level jet, where greater
moisture and low-level shear exist (per 22z mesoanalysis). 20Z RAP
forecast soundings (valid for 22-00Z) show large, curved hodographs
downshear of the ongoing storms). As such, tornado potential is
expected to increase through the remainder of the afternoon into the
evening hours.

Of particular concern are the supercells along a line from Burnet to
Guadalupe Counties, which are tracking in an thermodynamic
environment characterized by 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Given the storm mode
and aforementioned buoyancy/shear, a heightened tornado threat may
develop. Any supercell that becomes dominant/discrete (relatively
pristine inflow) will have the greatest risk for producing strong
tornadoes, and a long-lived, long-tracked tornado cannot be
completely ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 03/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...

LAT...LON 29789609 29399668 29049767 28979804 29099840 29239852
32659821 33549774 33799715 33849607 33399551 32239536
31419550 30509578 29789609

[Andrew]

The Luling storm is very impressive. Dynamics are not as strong that far south but there will be little cutoff of southerly flow which could maintain it for a little while.

[Cpv17]

Confirmed large tornado on the ground near Luling.

[jabcwb2]

With this system continuing to move north and east, do you think the worse part of it will bypass the Houston area?

[Stratton20]

We need that storm by lulling to fizzle, dont like the NE movement its making, if that stable air doesnt come into fruition, we could be in some big trouble

[Cpv17]

With this system continuing to move north and east, do you think the worse part of it will bypass the Houston area?

The worst part of it is supposed to be north and northwest of Houston but that means very little honestly. Your area could almost just as easily see something significant just like the moderate area could. Don’t let your guard down. Harris County is still definitely in play.

[Iceresistance]

Round Rock just got hit by a Tornado, another Tornado Warned Supercell is right over Austin.

This is really bad

[don]

With this system continuing to move north and east, do you think the worse part of it will bypass the Houston area?

The supercells ongoing right now are not supposed to go towards Houston and were never forcasted to.Redevelopment of storms is expected later tonight once the front gets closer and that is when a majority of the area will need to watch for severe weather and flooding.

[Cpv17]

Wow at the storm damage from Jacksboro

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah that high school gym got annihilated, just hope the one in luling didnt do as much, at least no casualties reported so far, thats positive

[DoctorMu]

Some of the tornados are rain wrapped.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBT1Pbvv4VQ

Tornado NW of Taylor

[DoctorMu]

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX1263E91077A0.SevereWeatherStatement.1263E9107E44TX.EWXSVSEWX.cbcffe0b71f4b4c63d0317d38754d9fb from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 18:28 CDT on 03-21-2022
Effective: 18:28 CDT on 03-21-2022
Expires: 18:45 CDT on 03-21-2022
Event: Severe Weather Statement
Alert:
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

At 628 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Granger Dam, or near Granger, moving northeast at 40
mph.
This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
HAZARD...Damaging tornado.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Taylor, Granger, Bartlett, Granger Dam, Laneport, Hoxie, Waterloo and
Hare.
TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
Instructions: To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Target Area:
Williamson

[Andrew]

Looks like GRK may have received damage from a tornado

[Cromagnum]

Good visualization of where the wind shift is.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 31.77,2439

[Cromagnum]

Round Rock just got hit by a Tornado, another Tornado Warned Supercell is right over Austin.

This is really bad

https://twitter.com/EvilMopacATX/status ... dZBjLMkqkw

[Cpv17]

We need to start paying attention to those storms out near Poth and Stockdale. They’re beginning to really take off now.

[Cromagnum]

We need to start paying attention to those storms out near Poth and Stockdale. They’re beginning to really take off now.

Those specific cells will be well to the north by the time they get here. Watch to the south of current supercells to see if anything gets going towards corpus. I'm pretty sure Houston is just going to have to deal with a consolidated line in the middle of the night.

[Stratton20]

Holy