March 2022
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 578
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
- Contact:
Blizzard warning for Amarillo & Guymon, this is wild.
Maybe not realistic for me to fully understand as I never took a single meteorology course, but what are the big differences from the sounding posted Saturday vs this new one?
Just now
Saturday
Just now
Saturday
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5299
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
I was trying to find a quick FAQ for Cromagnum and Ducoop...Andrew nailed it. You usually see Skew Ts like that in the Midwest with violent thunderstorms and sometimes, long track tornadoes. The closer the two lines are, the more instability there is. See the difference between Saturday and today? See how pronounced the two lines are and how far up they go? That is the key. Once a thunderstorm forms, it can turn severe or tornadic quickly, according to the soundings from CLL
https://www.greenskychaser.com/blog/201 ... ng-charts/
https://www.greenskychaser.com/blog/201 ... ng-charts/
One is just a model sounding for Houston, while the other is a real time sounding from a weather balloon launch in College Station today.The real time sounding shows higher shear than the model sounding from a couple of days ago.But again keep in mind the two soundings are not from the same location.And one is just a simulation,while the other is real data.
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 578
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
- Contact:
Tornado watch issued for most of Texas, including College Station, DFW, Austin, San Antonio, & Waco
Any surface-based storms that eventually bust through that inversion on the sounding are going to be brutal. That slice of drier air could actually create additional instability. A classic sounding for a pounding.
Sorry for posting the Dallas Discussion, but HGX is often late to the party and conservative. Very important information for our NW counties.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
257 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
...New Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1247 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022/
/Today and Tonight/
Not much has changed regarding today`s severe weather potential.
The radar scope has blossomed across much of the area, and this
trend will continue over the next couple of hours. The activity
across North Texas currently resides in a region of 800-1200 J/kg
MUCAPE, so a severe hail threat will exist with any robust
updrafts that are able to develop. Meanwhile, strong southerly
flow near the surface continues to usher rich moisture into North
and Central Texas. Dew points in the mid 60s have begun to surge
into Central Texas and will continue to make their way northward
this afternoon. As this occurs, convection will become
increasingly surface-based from south to north, increasing the
threat of severe weather.
Lift will be maximized late this afternoon as a dryline nears the
CWA. This should result in additional development likely somewhere
near the I-35 corridor. Discrete supercells are expected to be
the primary storm mode with this round of convection. This will
open the door to all modes of severe weather, including very large
hail, tornadoes (some strong), and damaging winds. Though severe
weather is possible across most of the forecast area this
afternoon and evening, the greatest chances for severe storms
still appear to be across our southeast where severe weather
ingredients will align the most optimally. The Storm Prediction
Center has upgraded this region to a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for
severe weather this afternoon and evening.
This activity is expected to move northeast through this evening,
shifting the severe weather threat to eastern portions of North
and Central Texas. Additionally, this appears to be the most
likely area to have a heavy rain/flooding potential, as some
training of showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Though
most of the activity should exit to the east near 9-10 pm, additional
development may be possible across the Brazos Valley through the
remainder of the overnight period. If you`re in this area, be
sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings before heading to
bed tonight, as a continued threat for severe storms will exist
into the overnight hours.
Barnes
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
257 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
...New Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1247 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022/
/Today and Tonight/
Not much has changed regarding today`s severe weather potential.
The radar scope has blossomed across much of the area, and this
trend will continue over the next couple of hours. The activity
across North Texas currently resides in a region of 800-1200 J/kg
MUCAPE, so a severe hail threat will exist with any robust
updrafts that are able to develop. Meanwhile, strong southerly
flow near the surface continues to usher rich moisture into North
and Central Texas. Dew points in the mid 60s have begun to surge
into Central Texas and will continue to make their way northward
this afternoon. As this occurs, convection will become
increasingly surface-based from south to north, increasing the
threat of severe weather.
Lift will be maximized late this afternoon as a dryline nears the
CWA. This should result in additional development likely somewhere
near the I-35 corridor. Discrete supercells are expected to be
the primary storm mode with this round of convection. This will
open the door to all modes of severe weather, including very large
hail, tornadoes (some strong), and damaging winds. Though severe
weather is possible across most of the forecast area this
afternoon and evening, the greatest chances for severe storms
still appear to be across our southeast where severe weather
ingredients will align the most optimally. The Storm Prediction
Center has upgraded this region to a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for
severe weather this afternoon and evening.
This activity is expected to move northeast through this evening,
shifting the severe weather threat to eastern portions of North
and Central Texas. Additionally, this appears to be the most
likely area to have a heavy rain/flooding potential, as some
training of showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Though
most of the activity should exit to the east near 9-10 pm, additional
development may be possible across the Brazos Valley through the
remainder of the overnight period. If you`re in this area, be
sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings before heading to
bed tonight, as a continued threat for severe storms will exist
into the overnight hours.
Barnes
&&
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
HRRR with a PDS TOR sounding at 1am for us. WHEEEE
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5299
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Here...we....go....
NOT NEAR US, just a preview of the instability Andrew was speaking of.
.Tornado Warning
TXC237-212130-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.220321T2046Z-220321T2130Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
346 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Central Jack County in north central Texas...
* Until 430 PM CDT.
* At 346 PM CDT, a tornado producing storm was located 7 miles east
of Bryson, or 9 miles southwest of Jacksboro, moving northeast at
35 mph. This tornado is headed for Jacksboro. Seek shelter now!
HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This tornadic storm will be near...
Jacksboro around 405 PM CDT.
Newport around 430 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move
to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
debris.
Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
&&
LAT...LON 3344 9798 3343 9792 3324 9792 3304 9824
3312 9840 3347 9807 3347 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 222DEG 32KT 3312 9826
TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
$$
Gordon
NOT NEAR US, just a preview of the instability Andrew was speaking of.
.Tornado Warning
TXC237-212130-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.220321T2046Z-220321T2130Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
346 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Central Jack County in north central Texas...
* Until 430 PM CDT.
* At 346 PM CDT, a tornado producing storm was located 7 miles east
of Bryson, or 9 miles southwest of Jacksboro, moving northeast at
35 mph. This tornado is headed for Jacksboro. Seek shelter now!
HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This tornadic storm will be near...
Jacksboro around 405 PM CDT.
Newport around 430 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move
to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
debris.
Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
&&
LAT...LON 3344 9798 3343 9792 3324 9792 3304 9824
3312 9840 3347 9807 3347 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 222DEG 32KT 3312 9826
TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
$$
Gordon
-
Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3481
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
Looks like storms are starting to fire north of San Antonio. Those are the storms that will be need to be montired for Central Texas.
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Yep I just texted my friends in Austin a few minutes ago to watch them closely
Last edited by jasons2k on Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 578
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
- Contact:
It's heading straight towards Jacksboro, TXtireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:12 pm Here...we....go....
NOT NEAR US, just a preview of the instability Andrew was speaking of.
.Tornado Warning
TXC237-212130-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.220321T2046Z-220321T2130Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
346 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Central Jack County in north central Texas...
* Until 430 PM CDT.
* At 346 PM CDT, a tornado producing storm was located 7 miles east
of Bryson, or 9 miles southwest of Jacksboro, moving northeast at
35 mph. This tornado is headed for Jacksboro. Seek shelter now!
HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This tornadic storm will be near...
Jacksboro around 405 PM CDT.
Newport around 430 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move
to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
debris.
Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
&&
LAT...LON 3344 9798 3343 9792 3324 9792 3304 9824
3312 9840 3347 9807 3347 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 222DEG 32KT 3312 9826
TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
$$
Gordon
I'm really not liking on what the Moderate Risk's Potential if the Slight Risk is overperforming like this . . .
Last edited by Iceresistance on Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.