March 2022
That outta about do it for winter risk for the year. Bring on lots of cool fronts and rain before the blast furnace sets in.
Severe Weather Threat
Slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight across the northern portions of SE TX.
Moisture return is underway this morning over the area with southerly flow in place ahead of a storm system approaching from the west. Air mass will continue to modify today with both moistening and heating resulting in some minimal instability by mid to late afternoon. Air mass is currently capped by a layer of warm air in the mid levels, but as lift begins to increase this afternoon, this capping inversion will begin to weaken. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop from late afternoon into the evening hours across the warm sector over SE TX. Initial mode of these storms will likely be individual cells and possibly supercells with a large hail and isolated tornado threat. Main risk for the late afternoon storms will be along and north of a line from College Station to Conroe to Liberty.
A second round of strong storms will be possible overnight as the cold front approaches from the west. Expect a line of thunderstorms to move into the area from the WNW and progress toward the coast by Tuesday morning. A few of these storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts or large hail. There is also some question how far southwest these storms will extend as capping increases around the Matagorda Bay area and may extend northeast to some degree toward Colorado, Wharton, and Fort Bend Counties. Greatest threat for the line of storms and any severe weather will once again be the further north and east across the area.
Cool front will move across the area early Tuesday ushering in a Pacific type air mass, so no big cool down with this front, but a few days of nice weather.
Next weather system approaches and crosses the area Thursday/Friday with a chances of showers and thunderstorms with this next front stalling near the coast or offshore.
Slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight across the northern portions of SE TX.
Moisture return is underway this morning over the area with southerly flow in place ahead of a storm system approaching from the west. Air mass will continue to modify today with both moistening and heating resulting in some minimal instability by mid to late afternoon. Air mass is currently capped by a layer of warm air in the mid levels, but as lift begins to increase this afternoon, this capping inversion will begin to weaken. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop from late afternoon into the evening hours across the warm sector over SE TX. Initial mode of these storms will likely be individual cells and possibly supercells with a large hail and isolated tornado threat. Main risk for the late afternoon storms will be along and north of a line from College Station to Conroe to Liberty.
A second round of strong storms will be possible overnight as the cold front approaches from the west. Expect a line of thunderstorms to move into the area from the WNW and progress toward the coast by Tuesday morning. A few of these storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts or large hail. There is also some question how far southwest these storms will extend as capping increases around the Matagorda Bay area and may extend northeast to some degree toward Colorado, Wharton, and Fort Bend Counties. Greatest threat for the line of storms and any severe weather will once again be the further north and east across the area.
Cool front will move across the area early Tuesday ushering in a Pacific type air mass, so no big cool down with this front, but a few days of nice weather.
Next weather system approaches and crosses the area Thursday/Friday with a chances of showers and thunderstorms with this next front stalling near the coast or offshore.
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 946
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
Looking eventful for our northern neighbors this evening.
Yeah, we've definitely busted the cap. Cells are popping up all around.
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX1263E8A59EE4.SpecialWeatherStatement.1263E8A5AE84TX.HGXSPSHGX.57dc138413211a7839f5516f32dd933e from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 18:05 CDT on 03-14-2022
Effective: 16:00 CDT on 03-14-2022
Expires: 18:45 CDT on 03-14-2022
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Burleson and
western Brazos Counties through 645 PM CDT...
At 605 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dime Box, or 9 miles east of Lexington, moving northeast at 30 to 35
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Caldwell, Snook, Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway, Deanville and
Chriesman.
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
Instructions: If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southeastern Texas.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA are developing ahead of tonight`s cold front with CLL and
UTS [Huntsville] at most risk early this evening. As the evening progresses, look
for activity to continue to develop along and ahead of the front with
a SHRA/TSRA risk for the remaining TAF sites. Generally expecting MVFR
ceilings to develop this evening with the potential for IFR/LIFR
ceilings/visibilities associated with the stronger SHRA/TSRA. Rapid
clearing can be expected behind the front with strengthening NW winds
developing during the day tomorrow. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/
SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
WAA associated with persistent onshore flow and south/southwest
winds aloft have allowed for temperatures today to outperform most
deterministic models, with some locations breaking the 80 degree mark
as of 3 PM this afternoon. Diurnal heating and increased moisture
associated with this flow pattern has also allowed for a widespread
cumulus field to develop ahead of the approach of an approaching
surface cold front, which will move into SE TX this evening.
Environmental conditions ahead of the approaching cold front
continue to support the development of some strong to severe storms
this evening through the early hours of Tuesday morning,
particularly in locations to the north of the Houston metro area
given the favorable positioning of the mid/upper level trough axis
to our west. Latest SPC mesoanalysis/model soundings indicate
widespread 0-6km shear values in excess of 60kts, upstream SBCAPE
values in excess of 1000 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates of around 7
degC, and low-level helicity on the order of 200 m^2/s^2 as
convection initiates over the next few hours. Given the favorable
parameter space for some severe convective development, a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through 9 PM for portions of our
northern counties. This watch may be expanded to include additional
portions of SE TX as the event evolves tonight. Primarily, we
anticipate this mainly being a hail threat, though favorable low-
level shear also points to the possibility of isolated tornadoes.
Make sure you stay up to date with the latest forecast information
this evening, and have multiple ways to receive weather related
warnings!
Initial development of discrete cells ahead of an approaching cold
front will begin over the next few hours across the northern zones,
where the hail and tornado threat will be greatest in any stronger
storms that develop. As the front moves into SE TX, convection will
eventually become linear and quickly push through the area. Boundary
timing has sped up by a few hours compared to the previous package
given trends in hires guidance and enhanced diurnal heating thus far
this afternoon, with passage expected in the Brazos Valley around 8-
9 PM, the Houston metro around 10-11 PM, and the coast just after
midnight. Localized heavy downpours will be possible as the boundary
pushes through, though a flooding threat is not anticipated.
Behind the departing front, moderate north winds will develop and
bring a quick surge of drier air to the area. As a result, generally
clear but gusty conditions are expected on Tuesday, though some
locations northeast of the Houston metro may experience some
lingering cloud cover as wraparound moisture associated with the
departing surface low moves into the area. This will produce highs
in the 60s in these locations, where otherwise highs will reach the
low-mid 70s. Overnight lows will dip into the 40s/lower 50s with
mostly clear conditions expected to continue.
Cady
LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
A transient high pressure will be sliding across Texas on Wednesday
providing the region with mostly sunny skies, high temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s, and light southeasterly winds. But this high
pressure will not be sticking around long as it will shift to the
central Gulf by Wednesday night increasing moist, southerly flow
into our region. Overnight low temperatures Wednesday night will be
in the low to mid 50s for most of the region while the coast remain
near 60. An upper level low will be moving into the Central Plains
Thursday morning developing a surface low in North Texas/Oklahoma
Thursday. Between the high pressure to the east and this developing
low pressure system to the northwest, the pressure gradient across
SE Texas will tighten helping to funnel very moist, warm air into
the region. PWATs climb from around 0.5" on Wednesday to around 1-
1.2" on Thursday. Expect increasing cloud cover and maybe some
streamer showers on Thursday afternoon as a result. Temperatures
Thursday afternoon climb into the upper 70s for most of the area to
even the low 80s across the B/CS area thanks to more sun getting
able to peak out over there. The cold front associated with the
system to the northwest will pass through our region late Thursday
bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms, however the best
dynamics for strong thunderstorms or heavy rain will remain north
and east of our region. It will usher in drier, cooler air for
Friday with highs in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure will be building over east Texas Friday night
providing dry air and light winds, so great conditions for
radiational cooling. Lows Friday night will dip into the 40s north
of I-10 with low 50s elsewhere. Unlike the high pressure that starts
the long term, this high pressure will not exit quite as quickly
providing us great weather this Saturday with clear skies afternoon
temperatures in low 70s. Conditions begin to change on Sunday as the
high pressure slides eastward and the southerly, moist onshore flow
resumes. High temperatures climb into the upper 70s on Sunday then
near 80 by Monday.
We will be monitoring a strong upper level low that moves down from
the Pacific Northwest on Sunday that moves into the Central Plains
Monday and Tuesday of next week. There is still a lot of the finer
details that need to be worked out with this system, but we could
start to see some precipitation as early as Monday morning as WAA
and PVA increases across the region.
Fowler
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA are developing ahead of tonight`s cold front with CLL and
UTS [Huntsville] at most risk early this evening. As the evening progresses, look
for activity to continue to develop along and ahead of the front with
a SHRA/TSRA risk for the remaining TAF sites. Generally expecting MVFR
ceilings to develop this evening with the potential for IFR/LIFR
ceilings/visibilities associated with the stronger SHRA/TSRA. Rapid
clearing can be expected behind the front with strengthening NW winds
developing during the day tomorrow. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/
SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
WAA associated with persistent onshore flow and south/southwest
winds aloft have allowed for temperatures today to outperform most
deterministic models, with some locations breaking the 80 degree mark
as of 3 PM this afternoon. Diurnal heating and increased moisture
associated with this flow pattern has also allowed for a widespread
cumulus field to develop ahead of the approach of an approaching
surface cold front, which will move into SE TX this evening.
Environmental conditions ahead of the approaching cold front
continue to support the development of some strong to severe storms
this evening through the early hours of Tuesday morning,
particularly in locations to the north of the Houston metro area
given the favorable positioning of the mid/upper level trough axis
to our west. Latest SPC mesoanalysis/model soundings indicate
widespread 0-6km shear values in excess of 60kts, upstream SBCAPE
values in excess of 1000 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates of around 7
degC, and low-level helicity on the order of 200 m^2/s^2 as
convection initiates over the next few hours. Given the favorable
parameter space for some severe convective development, a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through 9 PM for portions of our
northern counties. This watch may be expanded to include additional
portions of SE TX as the event evolves tonight. Primarily, we
anticipate this mainly being a hail threat, though favorable low-
level shear also points to the possibility of isolated tornadoes.
Make sure you stay up to date with the latest forecast information
this evening, and have multiple ways to receive weather related
warnings!
Initial development of discrete cells ahead of an approaching cold
front will begin over the next few hours across the northern zones,
where the hail and tornado threat will be greatest in any stronger
storms that develop. As the front moves into SE TX, convection will
eventually become linear and quickly push through the area. Boundary
timing has sped up by a few hours compared to the previous package
given trends in hires guidance and enhanced diurnal heating thus far
this afternoon, with passage expected in the Brazos Valley around 8-
9 PM, the Houston metro around 10-11 PM, and the coast just after
midnight. Localized heavy downpours will be possible as the boundary
pushes through, though a flooding threat is not anticipated.
Behind the departing front, moderate north winds will develop and
bring a quick surge of drier air to the area. As a result, generally
clear but gusty conditions are expected on Tuesday, though some
locations northeast of the Houston metro may experience some
lingering cloud cover as wraparound moisture associated with the
departing surface low moves into the area. This will produce highs
in the 60s in these locations, where otherwise highs will reach the
low-mid 70s. Overnight lows will dip into the 40s/lower 50s with
mostly clear conditions expected to continue.
Cady
LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
A transient high pressure will be sliding across Texas on Wednesday
providing the region with mostly sunny skies, high temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s, and light southeasterly winds. But this high
pressure will not be sticking around long as it will shift to the
central Gulf by Wednesday night increasing moist, southerly flow
into our region. Overnight low temperatures Wednesday night will be
in the low to mid 50s for most of the region while the coast remain
near 60. An upper level low will be moving into the Central Plains
Thursday morning developing a surface low in North Texas/Oklahoma
Thursday. Between the high pressure to the east and this developing
low pressure system to the northwest, the pressure gradient across
SE Texas will tighten helping to funnel very moist, warm air into
the region. PWATs climb from around 0.5" on Wednesday to around 1-
1.2" on Thursday. Expect increasing cloud cover and maybe some
streamer showers on Thursday afternoon as a result. Temperatures
Thursday afternoon climb into the upper 70s for most of the area to
even the low 80s across the B/CS area thanks to more sun getting
able to peak out over there. The cold front associated with the
system to the northwest will pass through our region late Thursday
bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms, however the best
dynamics for strong thunderstorms or heavy rain will remain north
and east of our region. It will usher in drier, cooler air for
Friday with highs in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure will be building over east Texas Friday night
providing dry air and light winds, so great conditions for
radiational cooling. Lows Friday night will dip into the 40s north
of I-10 with low 50s elsewhere. Unlike the high pressure that starts
the long term, this high pressure will not exit quite as quickly
providing us great weather this Saturday with clear skies afternoon
temperatures in low 70s. Conditions begin to change on Sunday as the
high pressure slides eastward and the southerly, moist onshore flow
resumes. High temperatures climb into the upper 70s on Sunday then
near 80 by Monday.
We will be monitoring a strong upper level low that moves down from
the Pacific Northwest on Sunday that moves into the Central Plains
Monday and Tuesday of next week. There is still a lot of the finer
details that need to be worked out with this system, but we could
start to see some precipitation as early as Monday morning as WAA
and PVA increases across the region.
Fowler
-
Iceresistance
- Posts: 578
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
- Contact:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch possible for SE Texas for Warm Sector Storms.
Pretty nice broken lines of showers with a little entraining. We're getting some of the wet stuff. Good prep for planting. Plus our sprinkler system has sector problems.
- Attachments
-
In it to win it. Take the good (rain) with the bad (wind), but we had stronger winds over the past 2 days!Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 7:33 pm Severe Thunderstorm Watch possible for SE Texas for Warm Sector Storms.
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX1263E8B15FE0.SevereThunderstormWarning.1263E8B16878TX.HGXSVRHGX.f53a65351dbec6c2e187d38879a0f319 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 19:08 CDT on 03-14-2022
Effective: 19:08 CDT on 03-14-2022
Expires: 19:30 CDT on 03-14-2022
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
North central Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Madison County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 730 PM CDT.
* At 707 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles north of
Kurten, or 17 miles north of Bryan, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Normangee.
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
Instructions: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!
Target Area:
Brazos
Madison
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 46
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
720 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Louisiana
East Texas
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 720 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Discrete supercells will pose a threat for mainly isolated
large hail, while a developing squall line pushes east from
northeast and east-central Texas towards the Sabine Valley with the
main threats of damaging winds and a brief tornado or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles east northeast
of Shreveport LA to 95 miles west southwest of Houston TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
Tornado warning for Lufkin now.
Russian warship supercells, go...somewhere else....
Russian warship supercells, go...somewhere else....
We just had some pea size hail. Looks like a hook echo near Center Line. The cell going through Brazos Co. has some punch.
There is some rotation in these cells along the front and trough.
There is some rotation in these cells along the front and trough.
Bow echo just north of Navasota. This is a dangerous cell with hail, potentially high winds...possibly rotation.
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 406
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Well, I put out some fertilizer (not much) so I am hoping it gets wet enough to soak in a little. It was already starting to rain when I dispersed it, but I am hoping for 0.25-0.5 inches. Looks like more rain is heading my way. I just hope these cells with hail stay away!
I washed my truck when I got home from work. Apologies to anyone that might experience floods, hail, tornados, volcanos and the like...
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 406
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
So far, I am only experiencing rain and not mist this time! Woohoo! Now, perhaps a sound of thunder? If not, I will certainly settle for the rain.