February 2022

[Stratton20]

Yep both wrf models showing frozen precip getting very close to some of SE Texas counties, the wrf2 has frozen precip lasting nearing 36 hours, that would be brutal

[DoctorMu]

If the front was 5 miles from Plum Grove, it would have passed through the park here at Harper’s Landing, maybe even my house in Imperial Oaks.

It’s not. It’s not even through Conroe yet.

I think that wind map is bit off.

The front stalled, and backed up a few miles. I have Tomball to just north of the Woodlands to Conroe. FWIW, consistent with Wundermap.

[jasons2k]

It didn’t stall. It’s making steady progress.

[walsean1]

Yep both wrf models showing frozen precip getting very close to some of SE Texas counties, the wrf2 has frozen precip lasting nearing 36 hours, that would be brutal

Does this include freezing Rain/Ice accumulation? If that just Snow, the all of the counties south would see ice

[Stratton20]

walsean1 this particular mesocale model includes sleet/ice as well

[Cpv17]

walsean1 houston will likely be in the 40’s for highs, the further north you are its note likely you will be in the 30’s all day tommorow , this is an arctic front and forecasting high temperatures with a really strong front like this is very difficult

Actually with this front the more west you go, the colder. Not really so much north. San Antonio will be a good bit colder than Houston. Possibly even Corpus Christi.

What is the difference with this arctic air versus 2021 arctic air that had the entire state in the deep freeze?

An SSW helped with last years Artic outbreak and was aided by the PV going down pretty far south and all the teleconnections lined up perfectly. This cold blast is really only being driven by the -EPO.

[DoctorMu]

~30°F drop in CLL already.

We should be in the 40s by midnight.

[Stratton20]

The thursday time frame we are going to need to watch closely, some of the models are starting to show some ice accumulations getting near or into some SE Texas counties, even a glazing can be treacherous, learned that the hard way a few weeks ago

[jasons2k]

10:02 - Front should be here in the next 10 minutes or so…

[Cpv17]

10:02 - Front should be here in the next 10 minutes or so…

I’m expecting it to pass through my area around 11:30ish..

[jasons2k]

I’m sitting outside. Just blew in. Right where the radar shows it too

[Stratton20]

!! Woah, what do the pro mets think about this?

[walsean1]

!! Woah, what do the pro mets think about this?

I think as one of the Mets explained, this cold air is not as cold as 2021 which was the perfect setup. Also this cold is heading more southwestward first before it moves east, but it can’t be ruled out that Houston could get a little freezing drizzle. The models are it handling this forecast well at all so who knows

[Thundersleet]

What of snow mixed in with rain or sleet mixed in with rain?

[Thundersleet]

And what of next week? Will the Arctic air mass still be with us or is Texas in for a warmup?

[djmike]

Well the front is clearly through Beaumont. Woke up to 70 outside and within 45 min, temp has dropped to now 61 and breezy. Have a feeling many of us will be surprised by this front. Meaning temps much lower than thought for our area. My NWS LC location is steadily correcting and dropping temps for the next few days.

[Kingwood36]

Blew through here..wouldn't call this cold..I'd call it comfortable

[Dls2010r]

Just came thru Santa Fe also. Yes it feels good right now.

[Stratton20]

walsean1 im furter up north in college station

[jasons2k]

Front has reached the coast. Even some of the more bullish forecasts didn’t have that happening until Thursday…