biggerbyte wrote:The next few days promise to be interesting. This forum will begin to light up come Monday.
I am watching this forum closely to get an idea of what is going on, not because I am nervous or panicked, but because I think it is interesting that this storm is behaving in such a manner. Thank you to all of you who do what you do to keep us informed!!
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
One scenario is that it drops south over the Florida panhandle, and lands right over the Gulf before heading west, very slowly. This would allow plenty of time for development. This is one possibilty, folks. There are a couple. One being that it does not drop far enough south to get back over water. Either way, flooding is coming to many folks. Hopefully that will be the extent of it. Everyone should pay close attention to the forecast for your area on a daily basis.
There is some speculation that this system will head towards Texas , but exit north again over LA. We sure needs some rain around here. That sure would be a disappointing turn of events, providing this remains just a rain maker.
Been on the road all day but I just checked the 00z GFS and Ex TD 5 gets to LA then shoots north before getting into Texas. Will be a close call:
NAM looks a little more hopeful though:
The thing that concerns me with this situation is that if the models are even 50 miles too far north then Ex TD 5 will be completely in the gulf. The models are already aggressive with organization so if this storm gets completely in the gulf who knows. It is encouraging though that most models are consistent and in agreement.
00z cmc is farther south:
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Some of the models seem to be further south at 00z. From the NHC:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY
AND COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY MONDAY WHERE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE MIX FOR THE SOUTHEAST AS REMNANT
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 INTERACTS WITH A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SINKS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THE DYNAMICS
AT THE UPPER-LEVELS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENSURING THE GULF COAST STATES WILL GET A WET START TO THE
WORK WEEK.
HGX:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SE TX WAS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ALOFT THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WAS GENERATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND
KEEPING FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A FEW ITEMS OF NOTE THAT
WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS INCLUDE THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH...THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF TD 5 IN SOUTHERN MS AND AL...AND THE MOVEMENT OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF MAY PROVIDE
SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE LATER TODAY.
THE CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX AND WILL CONTINUE THE
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVEMENT...
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY IN EXTENDING THE ADVISORY.
CONCERNING THE RAIN FORECAST...THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE UPPER
HIGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL INTERACT. LIKED THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION
TO THAT OF THE GFS IN KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW MORE OVER LAND OR
THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COASTS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE UPPER LOW MAY GET OFFSHORE BUT ALL MODELS HAVE IT
LOOPING WESTWARD BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHEAST...A BIT MADDENING
WHEN IT COMES TO IMPACTS AS SE TX COULD GO FROM LITTLE RAIN TO
VERY GOOD COVERAGE. DECIDED TO STAY WITH A CONSERVATIVE AND
CONSENSUS APPROACH...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS JUST STILL
TOO EARLY TO GO WHOLE HOG WITH ONE MODEL OVER THE OTHER. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE HIGHER OR LOWER TWO DEGREES OR MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER OR RAIN COVERAGE OCCURS.
40
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW SCEC CRITERIA. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TODAY AND MONDAY WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING A SURFACE
LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY. A KEY FACTOR
DETERMINING THE LEVEL OF INTENSIFICATION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT
THE LOW MOVES OUT OVER THE GULF...OR IF IT WILL HUG THE COAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HUGGING THE COAST. WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES... BUT CURRENTLY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM MOVING INLAND ON WED OVER LA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF.
THE MARINE FORECAST SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IT COULD CHANGE SHOULD THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE FURTHER
OFFSHORE AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND NAM MODELS. THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO DETERMINE WHAT EFFECTS OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Surface obs indicate the very weak low center (1013mb and 5-10 kt wind) is located over western Georgia, about 200 miles from the Gulf northeast of Columbus. You can keep track of it with surface obs here:
Most likely, it'll move south near the coast and drift westward on Monday/Tuesday, enhancing rain across southern AL/MS/LA before turning back northward. Might be able to reach SE TX before it turns back north and gets picked up by the approaching trof/front. Development chances appear to be low, mostly because it probably won't be offshore enough.
Models are being run again for TD Five's remnant low. None shows much in the way of weather for Houston yet. This set doesn't include the Canadian or Euro:
It seems ex TD5 wants to give everyone something to talk about today srainhoutx since the models do seem to be off as far as where this disturbance is, what will that do to the tracking of the models? I saw some model runs that go into LA with this, but if they are too far south, where would that put "landfall" IF this storm does develop?
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
Time will tell rnmm. It is interesting to see the rather intense convection offshore of SE LA/MS/AL/ NW FL this morning. IF the models have the wrong starting point, it could suggest a more inland track. Or and the other hand, the surface low 'pulls' S into that deeper convection and forms more offshore. Regardless, it will be interesting to watch unfold. I just hope we get some much needed rain from this disturbance.
HPC Update:
MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH OUR DEPICTION OF THE
REMAINS OF TD FIVE FORECAST NEAR THE GULF COAST DURING THE SHORT
RANGE BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO FOCUS SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOCALLY...BUT OUR COMPROMISE GUIDANCE TRACK
REMAINS AT ODDS WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM MUCH
FARTHER NEWD AND THE 00 UTC ECMWF/06 UTC DGEX ARE MUCH FARTHER
SWWD INTO TX.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
srainhoutx since the models do seem to be off as far as where this disturbance is, what will that do to the tracking of the models? I saw some model runs that go into LA with this, but if they are too far south, where would that put "landfall" IF this storm does develop?