Both the Euro and GFS are very similar with the path of the remnants heading towards our areasrainhoutx wrote:The 12Z Euro (500mb) has a weak disturbance traveling Westbound across the Northern Gulf and into TX on late Wednesday/early Thursday.
It's not just one model run. It's also the UKMET, Euro, the GFS, and the ensemble members...SusieinLP wrote:Looks like lots of rain for the central Gulf coast....Kind of like an Allison type storm that wont go away....I saw the earlier posts of a model sending TD5 in our direction...Not sure I get how that would happen nor am I really concerned. I did hear the guy on FOx News this morning say we could get some rain from remnants of TD5 next week....Any thoughts on that particular model run or us getting any rain from this system??
Candy Cane wrote:A drop of rain would be a welcome relief...just one drop.
lolCandy Cane wrote:Why not just pick her up and slam her down, Mr. T? LOL
Well don't I look like a D-bag. I need to pay closer attention. I just assumed it was after 2pm that it was updated.Mr. T wrote:Check the timestamps. That is yesterday's run.Candy Cane wrote:Hmmmm, 12z Euro (Pay Attention, Houston)
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP096.gif (96 hours)
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif (120 hours...south of NOLA)
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif (144 hours...approaching Texas)
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif (168 hours...Houston)
He says it updates at 3:20 pm / 3:20 amCandy Cane wrote:
Well don't I look like a D-bag. I need to pay closer attention. I just assumed it was after 2pm that it was updated.
Been busy all day with a lot of things, one of them trying to figure out what the remnant low will do early next week. Seems like each model has a different solution, and a different solution with each model run. Hard to trust anything at this point. As weak as the LLC is now, there may not be an LLC in another 24 hours. Then all we'll have is an area of vorticity that eventually moves down near the coast (or just offshore). It would take longer for something without an LLC to develop.
GFS develops the low near the NW FL panhandle and tracks it just inland to Vermilion Bay then across the Gulf to Galveston, developing it very quickly offshore. Probably an unlikely solution. Euro is much weaker with the low. Can't get a closed isobar unless I go down to 1/2 millibar increments. But that may not be a bad solution. Canadian has been wildly swinging back and forth with its projections of where the low would go - west one run, east the next. Hard to trust that THIS run it's correct. NAM is ... the NAM. Develops most features, clueless as to where they might track.
Big picture would suggest a stronger ridge building north of the remnants, indicating a slow westward movement similar to the Euro. But does it get far enough offshore to give it a chance at redevelopment? Maybe. Something to keep an eye on, anyway.
Code: Select all
AL, 05, 2010081400, , BEST, 0, 322N, 870W, 20, 1008, LO
