February 2022

[DoctorMu]

Looks like CLL will hit freezing by 6 am on Thursday and freezing rain and maybe a mix after that. Trees, bridges, and of course power lines susceptible.

[don]

WPC early ice probability.

[Stratton20]

Oof. im in the 60% range🥶🥶

[Kingwood36]

Herzog is starting to come around..

"As I've been saying, this will be a close call when it comes to icy conditions in Southeast Texas, and I encourage you to remain weather aware. If the freeze line arrives quicker than we are expecting OR we get more precipitation Thursday night than we are currently expecting, that would increase the chances of accumulating ice in our part of the state. Otherwise, we'll skirt by with a cold rain and a few mornings with a light freeze/frost."

[don]

0Z HRRR picking up on the same disturbance other models have been showing.Its shows a large swath of freezing rain moving into southeast Texas from west to east.

[Stratton20]

00z HRRR now on board as well, and this is a model the NWS follows, i think we are going to be put under watches tommorow

[sambucol]

Just got home. Any opinions of us getting sleet or freezing rain in the Baytown area would be appreciated. I know they are opinions, but I value the information from this board. Thank you.

[walsean1]

So the Weather Channel app has me in Spring at a 40% chance of Light Freezing Rain for Thursday. That is surprising

[Kingwood36]

So the Weather Channel app has me in Spring at a 40% chance of Light Freezing Rain for Thursday. That is surprising

Guess those fake maps weren't all that fake lol

[walsean1]

So the Weather Channel app has me in Spring at a 40% chance of Light Freezing Rain for Thursday. That is surprising

Guess those fake maps weren't all that fake lol

I am a conservative person that wants all fact put together before putting it out there for the public to see. Also I know these forecast can change quickly

[Kingwood36]

So the Weather Channel app has me in Spring at a 40% chance of Light Freezing Rain for Thursday. That is surprising

Guess those fake maps weren't all that fake lol

I am a conservative person that wants all fact put together before putting it out there for the public to see. Also I know these forecast can change quickly

I understand but forecast changes pretty much all day everyday..so nothing is ever really fake

[don]

0Z NAM is getting onboard now.On the previous runs today it was mostly dry by this point.

[don]

0Z WRF

[Ptarmigan]

Looking at the forecast models, the wintry precipitation northwest of Houston at around 6:00 PM. This looks like a night event.

[Stormlover2020]

What is icon showing on weather nerds

[Stratton20]

Latest SREF Ens that just came out, for sleet and freezing rain mean accumulations

[Stormlover2020]

What did rgem show on weather nerds

[Stratton20]

00z ICON is pretty much locked in at this point

[Ptarmigan]

I know it is too early to tell, but it seems like forecast models have wintry precipitation getting closer to Houston.

[don]

00z ICON is pretty much locked in at this point

Yep the ICON was the first model to "sniff" out the secondary band of precip the models show moving into SE Texas and now other models are picking up on the same feature.