February 2022

[redneckweather]

Keep that freezing out of here and hopefully the models will start trending towards a deeper airmass hopefully.

[Stratton20]

And now the 12z GFS drops the winter storm in SE texas, what this is telling me is that the models have absolutely no clue on whats going to happen, i dont even think the operational runs are worth looking at until their is some sort of consistency, this storm system is giving the models a lot of trouble, but then again it doesnt even exist yet so that’s probably why

[sambucol]

It’ll probably do that until Monday or Tuesday before it locks in. Just my opinion.

[don]

The storm system is still there on the GFS(shows a cut off low to our west).But the air is too dry and the troughs orientation is different.So it doesn't produce enough lift and has most of the lift east of us.I would expect flip flops in this range though.If we don't wont Ice we would have a better chance of seeing sleet/snow with the secondary cut off low next Friday-Sunday than with the Ana front on Wednesday/Thursday.As we will have deeper colder air established over the area.

[Dls2010r]

If it’s not snow. I don’t want it. I am tired of being cold.

[Stratton20]

Don why do you think the models are having a hard time trying to figure this storm system out? I know it doesn't exist yet ao that’s probably a factor

[don]

Don why do you think the models are having a hard time trying to figure this storm system out? I know it doesn't exist yet ao that’s probably a factor

Its normal in a complex setup like this, models always struggle with these kind of systems in this range.It wont be till Monday until we have a better idea how things will play out.

[Stratton20]

The 12z GEFS still shows a winter storm for some SE Texas countiee

[Iceresistance]

OMG, that Negative Tilt on the 12z GFS.

[Dls2010r]

What’s a negative tilt?

[txsnowmaker]

OMG, that Negative Tilt on the 12z GFS.

Whatever that is in that run means absolutely nothing significant for SE Texas. Maybe far far away from us like for you in Oklahoma but not here.

[don]

What’s a negative tilt?

The orientation of the trough axis, when its angled like this "\" (from northwest to southeast) it becomes negatively tilted.The storm basically becomes stronger and is able to draw more moisture and lift over the area. Last years winter storm was negatively tilted also.

[Dls2010r]

Thank You!

[txsnowmaker]

The storm system is still there on the GFS(shows a cut off low to our west).But the air is too dry and the troughs orientation is different.So it doesn't produce enough lift and has most of the lift east of us.I would expect flip flops in this range though.If we don't wont Ice we would have a better chance of seeing sleet/snow with the secondary cut off low next Friday-Sunday than with the Ana front on Wednesday/Thursday.As we will have deeper colder air established over the area.

Count me in the hoping for sleet/snow for F-Su crowd.

[Stratton20]

The 12z CMC basically pulls a harry houdini and brings thw winter storm so close to SE Texas and then goes POOF, it just disappears, absolutely head scratcher of a run

[Iceresistance]

OMG, that Negative Tilt on the 12z GFS.

Whatever that is in that run means absolutely nothing significant for SE Texas. Maybe far far away from us like for you in Oklahoma but not here.

It does mean storms for Eastern & SE Texas though

[Kingwood36]

So basically are chance for wintery weather would be Friday through sun? Not Wed or Thursday correct?

[don]

Yes,its starting to look like for us in SE Texas our chance of wintry precip will come from the second trough that starts to slow down as it hits the southeast ridge late next week. Such a setup could produce a prolong winter storm with multiple disturbances along the subtropical jet moving through for a couple of days.But it will depend on how far south the trough digs, its orientation,strength and speed.If we get anything or just dry cold air.

[txsnowmaker]

Yes,its starting to look like for us in SE Texas our chance of wintry precip will come from the second trough that starts to slow down as it hits the southeast ridge late next week. Such a setup could produce a prolong winter storm with multiple disturbances along the subtropical jet moving through for a couple of days.But it will depend on how far south the trough digs, its orientation,strength and speed.If we get anything or just dry cold air.

That would be a very good development for SE Texas. We don’t need any more weather disasters around here, and the fact that any precip would arrive after cold air has settled in (meaning greater likelihood of snow/sleet vs freezing rain) makes it even better.

[Stratton20]

FWIW the 12z Euro suggests some areas in Northwestern SE Texas could see some wintry mischeif, like college station/bryan area