February 2022

[don]

Lets hope this doesn't verify, and the event is a more snow/sleet setup like last years storm.

[Stratton20]

Don that would be absolutely brutal

[txsnowmaker]

What are the chances that this is snow, which would be a beautiful sight in Houston, as opposed to ice, which would be a disaster?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_35.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false#

[Cpv17]

Lets hope this doesn't verify, and the event is a more snow/sleet setup like last years storm.

What did the ICON show? Looks like it came in a good bit faster.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 ICON has dropped any wintry precip for SE texas, but its the ICON lol

[Cpv17]

CPV17 ICON has dropped any wintry precip for SE texas, but its the ICON lol

Yeah that’s what I figured. It came in way too fast. Basically the precipitation outran the cold air.

[don]

Looks like the CMC model its back onboard with a winter storm.

[don]

FWIW the CMC develops a gulf low and shows frozen precip getting into the northwest counties of southeast Texas.The GFS and now the CMC show a big difference from previous runs over the last couple of days.Which showed nothing but dry arctic air over the state.

[Stratton20]

00z GEFS continues its aggressive trend in a major winter storm

[Cpv17]

00z GEFS continues its aggressive trend in a major winter storm

That looks even better than the 18z.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yup this is definitely getting better by each run, Euro comes oit in an hour and a half ao we will see if it caves towards the GFS

[Cpv17]

CPV17 yup this is definitely getting better by each run, Euro comes oit in an hour and a half ao we will see if it caves towards the GFS

Notice the darker colors of precipitation on the GEFS indicating heavier precip. Earlier it had the lightest shade which was probably indicating lighter precip.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yeah that definitely has got my attention, heavy sleet/ice, man roads would become ice rinks

[Andrew]

Still not seeing much in the form of frozen precipitation for this area. North Texas and those in Central Texas have a better chance but the GFS is notorious for keeping too much moisture around post-frontal. There is a little bit of low and mid-level lift along the coast towards the end of the week and that may be something to watch into next weekend, but I remain skeptical on the winter mix with the initial frontal passage. With that said, the GFS is a lot less aggressive with the progression of the upper-level trough with an upper-level cutoff low retrograding west. A large difference from the previous couple of days so something we need to continue to watch.

[don]

The 0Z EURO is still not onboard with a winter storm, but overall trends were good tonight.Models should start to converge over the weekend.

[don]

6z GFS

[don]

From Wxman57,looks like he is getting onboard.

This could be a significant freezing rain and sleet event for TX next Thu-Sun. Models are indicating a large, shallow area of sub-freezing temps at the surface. The sub-freezing layer may not be deep enough for a lot of snow, but it would certainly be deep enough for an ice storm. The farther north in TX, the more sleet vs. freezing rain. There would be snow, too, but the main impact would be the icy conditions on roadways and power lines.

[Kingwood36]

It's not often he agrees so when he starts to it's time to start paying attention. So is he expecting sleet and freezing rain event here or is he talking more about North Texas? And just rain here?

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 he’s taking about SE texas too

[txsnowmaker]

Well let’s not forget these are “models.” Perhaps the layer will be deeper than currently depicted and provide for more snow than freezing rain. That would be far better for many reasons.