February 2022

[Cpv17]

What I’m really interested in is the week after next. With what seems to be an active STJ right now, I wouldn’t count anything out.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yep the GFS shows another really cold shot of arctic air by hour 264 with a system moving in, with an active STJ this makes for a potentially busy next 10-14 days

[Cpv17]

There are huge differences in the models after we get past next week. GFS wants to keep us cold with winter weather chances and the Euro wants to go back to normal conditions. The 500mb pattern is completely different.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS ( tropical tidbits and weather nerd) has trended a little more aggressive with a winter storm

[don]

18Z GFS shows a potent winter storm for the northern half of the state with a second piece of energy producing ice in southeast Texas on the tail end of the system. The ICON shows a similar scenario FWIW.Expect more changes in the models, but when a model such as the GFS is trending towards a storm in this range after showing nothing before, is a good sign.Let's see what the 0Z runs show.

[Kingwood36]

Man keep that ice lol..if it isn't snow then then let it be a dry cold lol

[Cpv17]

18Z GFS shows a potent winter storm for the northern half of the state with a second piece of energy producing ice in southeast Texas on the tail end of the system. The ICON shows a similar scenario FWIW.Expect more changes in the models, but when a model such as the GFS is trending towards a storm in this range after showing nothing before, is a good sign.Let's see what the 0Z runs show.

We need this system to keep digging and have a very slow ejection. With blocking on each coasts (Atlantic, Pacific), I think it could happen.

[txsnowmaker]

18Z GFS shows a potent winter storm for the northern half of the state with a second piece of energy producing ice in southeast Texas on the tail end of the system. The ICON shows a similar scenario FWIW.Expect more changes in the models, but when a model such as the GFS is trending towards a storm in this range after showing nothing before, is a good sign.Let's see what the 0Z runs show.

A good sign for what? I don’t think anyone gets excited for ice. Is there something I’m missing?

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS is really aggressive on a winter storm fwiw

[Cpv17]

18Z GFS shows a potent winter storm for the northern half of the state with a second piece of energy producing ice in southeast Texas on the tail end of the system. The ICON shows a similar scenario FWIW.Expect more changes in the models, but when a model such as the GFS is trending towards a storm in this range after showing nothing before, is a good sign.Let's see what the 0Z runs show.

A good sign for what? I don’t think anyone gets excited for ice. Is there something I’m missing?

There are people who get excited for ice. We know the damage it can cause but I for one still get excited for it. Just not nearly as much as I would for snow. What Don is saying is that the trends today have been good for more moisture and a colder solution which could (you never know) result in snow across our area if the models keep trending colder and have more qpf. How far south the trough/low dig is going to be the determining factor imo. We need it to dig deep into Mexico before ejecting.

[don]

18Z GFS shows a potent winter storm for the northern half of the state with a second piece of energy producing ice in southeast Texas on the tail end of the system. The ICON shows a similar scenario FWIW.Expect more changes in the models, but when a model such as the GFS is trending towards a storm in this range after showing nothing before, is a good sign.Let's see what the 0Z runs show.

A good sign for what? I don’t think anyone gets excited for ice. Is there something I’m missing?

A good sign for a potential storm, i wouldn't get too hung up on precip type yet in this range.

[Cpv17]

18Z GFS shows a potent winter storm for the northern half of the state with a second piece of energy producing ice in southeast Texas on the tail end of the system. The ICON shows a similar scenario FWIW.Expect more changes in the models, but when a model such as the GFS is trending towards a storm in this range after showing nothing before, is a good sign.Let's see what the 0Z runs show.

A good sign for what? I don’t think anyone gets excited for ice. Is there something I’m missing?

A good sign for a potential storm, i wouldn't get too hung up on precip type yet in this range.

I wonder at some point if we can get a west Gulf low to form with this cold in place. That would really amp up the totals.

[don]

From HGX this afternoon

Tuesday and Wednesday are transition days ahead of the next
approaching shortwave and not much of a cool down is expected
behind Monday`s front as temps still climb to the upper 60s to
lower 70s each day. By late Wednesday, a deep positively tilted
trough across the Western US will push east and into the Central
Plains. This trough will drag a stronger cold front through
Southeast Texas, but exact timing remains uncertain. The ECMWF is
warmer and faster and pushes the front through by early Thursday
morning. The GFS however, is slower and colder and has the front
arriving to the Brazos Valley by early Monday morning right as
surface temperatures are dropping to at or near freezing. Timing
and temperature of this front is crucial as it might determine
whether we get wintry precip or not. A lot still has to come
together, but we`re monitoring this mid week front closely for the
possibility of wintry mix.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Cpv17]

18z EPS is a thing of beauty!!

[walsean1]

From HGX this afternoon

Tuesday and Wednesday are transition days ahead of the next
approaching shortwave and not much of a cool down is expected
behind Monday`s front as temps still climb to the upper 60s to
lower 70s each day. By late Wednesday, a deep positively tilted
trough across the Western US will push east and into the Central
Plains. This trough will drag a stronger cold front through
Southeast Texas, but exact timing remains uncertain. The ECMWF is
warmer and faster and pushes the front through by early Thursday
morning. The GFS however, is slower and colder and has the front
arriving to the Brazos Valley by early Monday morning right as
surface temperatures are dropping to at or near freezing. Timing
and temperature of this front is crucial as it might determine
whether we get wintry precip or not. A lot still has to come
together, but we`re monitoring this mid week front closely for the
possibility of wintry mix.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

This raises an eyebrow for me that HGX mentioned this being so early in the game

[txsnowmaker]

18z EPS is a thing of beauty!!

What does it show for Harris County?

[Cpv17]

18z EPS is a thing of beauty!!

What does it show for Harris County?

I’m not sure but it shows the low/trough digging down really far south and that would bring in more precipitation and cold air for our region.

[TexasBreeze]

For those who like days like today, better enjoy this weekend before things get cold and cloudy again! Will see what the precip brings!

[Stratton20]

Wow! 00z GFS with a winter storm all the way down into Houston

[don]

Yep the 0Z GFS Shows frozen precip across southeast Texas now.It also still shows another piece of energy producing another round of frozen precip on Friday.