TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico

[biggerbyte]

Keep I mind folks that this system has weakened to an open wave. It is not gone. It would be wise to keep an eye on the gulf until there is nothing from this...

[sleetstorm]

Does that tropical wave look it has two areas of circulation to any of you? One not that far from the Louisiana coast and the other one x-number of miles west from Tampa, Fl under that blob of tropical convection.

[srainhoutx]

[desiredwxgd]

See the 12Z Canadian- very similar solution...

What the heck is that?? Ummmm.

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if it is that tropical wave east of the Windward Islands. That's a week from now!

[Ptarmigan]

With all the Upper Level Low (ULL) creating windshear, I think they could be our problem because ULL increases chance for landfalls. We often see ULLs in Neutral and La Nina phase of the El Nino Southern Oscilliation (ENSO).

ULL contributes to a wet summer for Texas. That is rather worrisome because I noticed if July is wetter, there is a correlation for major hurricanes to make landfall. Case in point, 1900, 1942, and 1961. They were wet July's likely from ULL. Guess what came, the Great Galveston Hurricane, a major hurricane in August of 1942 that came in late August, and Carla in September. I still think this season will be active in fact I can think it could be prolonged from late August to November.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS and Canadian has been suggesting the return of TD 5 for a day or so. If you follow the 850mb Vort chart, it is the same feature. Will it happen? Time will tell.

[biggerbyte]

Wow! Poltergeist...

[Mr. T]

The "spin" you see on the Mobile radar is not within a well definied low level center. It's just a small area of vorticity.

We've seen these kind of things before within areas of large tropical moisture. The spin itself, of course, is not a tropical center.

[srainhoutx]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE IS MOVING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS IN
SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED THIS MORNING...THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
MOVING FARTHER INLAND TODAY AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI...PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

[biggerbyte]

We've not seen the end of Td5. Watch for a good possibilty of this staying over water with an eventual heading of sw, then west. There are competing outcomes with this situation, so we will just need to pay attention.

All together, gang... It ain't over 'till.
I should rename my handle to cliche. Lol

[don]

Anyone seen what the the Euro and GFS does with td 5? yea i know its weak but still interesting

[biggerbyte]

Yeppers.. Gotta watch this carefully.

[sleetstorm]

Does the center of that surface level low look like it is or may be moving west-southwest or southwest to any of you? I saw it in motion on the Infrared Satellite picture and it was arduous to tell.

Gaze very carefully and closely in the southern part of south central Louisiana when you watch the Infrared Satellite in motion.

[srainhoutx]

I don't know about that sleet. From what I'm seeing on Hi Res Visible Imagery, the low level circulation is slowly moving N and is now onshore around the Pearl River in MS.

Check out the NASA site. It's worth getting getting to know when tracking disturbance while offshore away from radar and observations IMO.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[biggerbyte]

You both may be seeing things...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS AS IT DRIFTS INLAND DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[Ptarmigan]

Hmmmmm, this could be interesting.

[wxman57]

Does the center of that surface level low look like it is or may be moving west-southwest or southwest to any of you? I saw it in motion on the Infrared Satellite picture and it was arduous to tell.

Gaze very carefully and closely in the southern part of south central Louisiana when you watch the Infrared Satellite in motion.

No. You cannot see the center on IR satellite very easily. It's best to use surface obs. Can click the map here and get a plot of the southeast region here:

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/

A radar loop will show it, too.

It's moving northward into the mid MS coast now.

[biggerbyte]

There were/are two flows for this system to get caught up in... Either southerly, or northerly. Some thought it would move sw, which was possible, but it is either stationary, or very slowly drifting in a northerly direction. I'll be glad to get this onshore somewhere and die for good. I, for one, am tired of trying to keep track of this particular system.

[biggerbyte]

I forgot to add that we still have to see if this moves inland, but then it still gets pushed back offshore. It just needs to die. What a weird season.