February 2022

[Cpv17]

GEFS support doubled, it now has about 12 members (of 30) showing winter precip.

Well that’s a step in the right direction at least.

[mcheer23]

GEFS support doubled, it now has about 12 members (of 30) showing winter precip.

Well that’s a step in the right direction at least.

And the EURO is a step back.

[Cpv17]

GEFS support doubled, it now has about 12 members (of 30) showing winter precip.

Well that’s a step in the right direction at least.

And the EURO is a step back.

Yep. It’s really cold though. And cold for several days from the looks of it. Definitely cold enough for us to a cash in if we can get a shortwave or something coming through. It’s not Feb 21 cold but definitely still really cold.

[sambucol]

So it looks like our area of SETX will be under freezing temps for 2 or 3 days? Possibly ice or snow? But not like last February.

I've removed my frost cloths from the plants from last week. I shouldn't pack those away it sounds like. But I'm good with some wintry weather and freezing temps!

[mcheer23]

So it looks like our area of SETX will be under freezing temps for 2 or 3 days? Possibly ice or snow? But not like last February.

If the skies clear like the models are now showing, high temps would likely be in the upper 30's to low 40s. Low temps in the low to mid 20's. We're still a week away so it'll likely change.

[sambucol]

Thanks, Mccheer! I enjoy cold weather. It gets so hot here for so long, that I can work with the cold. Even if the power goes out.

[mcheer23]

Gunna be pretty cold.

[Stratton20]

Models are going to continue to struggle with wintry precip chances, but the one good thing is that all of the modes are showing we will have some very cold temps, we just need a disturbance to come through

[Cpv17]

Models are going to continue to struggle with wintry precip chances, but the one good thing is that all of the modes are showing we will have some very cold temps, we just need a disturbance to come through

Completely agree. Mesoscale models will do a much better job picking up on that when they get within range.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yup they will give us a better idea pf what is going to happen, but seeing that the GEFS has doubled in support of a “winter storm” im probably going to be watching the ensembles more right now, will say though the CMC model has been the only model to continuously show some wintry precip for SE Texas, hasnt flipped flopped

[Kingwood36]

CPV17 yup they will give us a better idea pf what is going to happen, but seeing that the GEFS has doubled in support of a “winter storm” im probably going to be watching the ensembles more right now, will say though the CMC model has been the only model to continuously show some wintry precip for SE Texas, hasnt flipped flopped

Cmc isn't very reliable tho so I wouldn't put much stock in it

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 its not terrible
though, I look for consistency in models and it has been the only consistent global model so far, im keeping my confidence in a wintry precip event at 10% lol

[Stratton20]

18z GFS trended towards the CMC

[Cpv17]

It’s looking more and more likely that we’re gonna be in for a prolonged period of cold weather beginning next Wednesday. I really don’t see any warmup in site once that Artic blast arrives.

[sambucol]

It’s looking more and more likely that we’re gonna be in for a prolonged period of cold weather beginning next Wednesday. I really don’t see any warmup in site once that Artic blast arrives.

Define prolonged please. Are we talking 2 or 3 days or a week etc? Thanks.

[Stratton20]

Sambucol on the 18z GFS it keeps the arctic air in place for a good 4-5 days with another reinforcing shot of arctic air around 240 hours out

[sambucol]

Wow! Pipe busting temps?

[Stratton20]

Sambucol domt think so but the GFS keeps us in the upper 30’s to low 40’s for highs for at least 4-5 days

[Andrew]

It looks like next week we could see the coldest temperatures of this winter across the region. With that said, models have pulled back some on how far south the upper-level trough will dig. Instead of the cold air funneling straight south, it's tracking further east and remaining over the Central Plains. I'm not seeing much in the way of winter precip though. Most of the mid and upper-level energy ejects to the east and doesn't hang around like previous runs were showing. Either way, we are probably looking at a couple of mornings with lows below freezing and it's possible parts of the region could be looking at mid to low 20s.

Additionally, keep an eye on Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have indicated a mesoscale event could develop with the GFS showing 2-5 inches widespread. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a FF watch issued late this weekend as most of that rainfall is likely to fall within a couple of hours.

[Cpv17]

It’s been a long time since I’ve seen the models blow something up like that exactly over our area during peak daytime heating. I’m talking about for Monday. Hopefully the models will trend deeper and less progressive with next weeks trough/low pressure. I’m not sure why they wouldn’t with the way the ridges are setup on both coasts.