Winter Long Range Discussion

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 it definitely could be worse, just as long as that pesky SE Ridge stays away from us

[Iceresistance]

Cpv17 it definitely could be worse, just as long as that pesky SE Ridge stays away from us

There is a SE Ridge on the 12z GFS in the medium/long range, but that feature gets defeated by -EPO Trough & -AO Push.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yep I saw that, interesting pattern ahead, showed some winter storms forming over Texas but thays super far out

[Cpv17]

I think the first few days or possibly even the first week of February might be near average temps or slightly above it but after that I’m seeing a potential major pattern change.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yep the GFS is showing signs of a big pattern change, looks like the PNA will stay negative for a while but it looks to trend back towards neutral around the 5th or 6th

[Kingwood36]

Lol I'm honestly sick of hearing about a pattern change...all talk and no action

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 a pattern change is coming... we all said the samething last january and look what happened in february, most model guidance is bringing the PNA back towards neutral around the first week of february, that is very good news for us

[Stratton20]

9 days out on the 00z CMC , probably gonna change on the next run, but any sort of system that shows up within 10 days on a model is at least something of interest

[Cpv17]

There’s a massive difference between the Euro ensemble and the GFS ensemble in the medium to long range. Models are definitely confused right now.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yeah, i think the MJO and some of the teleconnections may be the reasoning behind that

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS WOW! If it was not being 300+ Hours out.

[Iceresistance]

CPV17 yeah, i think the MJO and some of the teleconnections may be the reasoning behind that

It's the MJO that is mostly out of action, it has really messed up the models.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance well the latest GFS is very cold throughout its whole run

[Cpv17]

Iceresistance well the latest GFS is very cold throughout its whole run

Yeah and it has some support from the GEFS as well to back it up.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yup! We got a interesting few weeks ahead of us, if the GFS is right, man could we be in for some big time cold snaps

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance well the latest GFS is very cold throughout its whole run

The Euro is in action as well, but the 12z GFS only solidifies the cold that is coming in February.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yep we are going to be seeing some bug changes coming in the next 10 days or so, I love the cold so bring it on!!

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance yep we are going to be seeing some bug changes coming in the next 10 days or so, I love the cold so bring it on!!

It seems like that the MJO is no longer needed for this one. (Unless it speeds back into Phases 8-2)

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance maybe! THE GFS keeps persistent troughiness out to our west, bringing multiple storm systems over texas and oklahoma, this is a good setup for potential winter storms!

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance maybe! THE GFS keeps persistent troughiness out to our west, bringing multiple storm systems over texas and oklahoma, this is a good setup for potential winter storms!

The CMC just went INSANE with a POWERFUL winter storm next week!

Kansas has reported 2 feet of snow from Yesterday's Storm, they did not see that coming.