January 2022

[Stratton20]

Thats so far out on the GFS, though the way i see it anything beyond 10 days on the GFS isn’t completely useless, it could give us some hints of any aort of potential change in the weather pattern

[Kingwood36]

It happens!

[Stratton20]

That winter storm warning was a massive bust in S Texas, not sure ive ever seen that happen before

[TexasBreeze]

There was a reason HGX didn't issue any watches or advisories. Nothing supported that and in places with wintery mix possible the chances were so low that it is a surprise nothing much happened except the small novelty in College Station.

[Iceresistance]

That winter storm warning was a massive bust in S Texas, not sure ive ever seen that happen before

Could that bust countered the unexpected Winter Storm of December 2017?

[don]

Like I said earlier we don't have a lot of data when it comes to disturbances coming out of Mexico. So there's always a chance that the disturbances will behave differently than what the models show. I found the snippet interesting from HGX this morning. Houston is almost 6 inches above normal for this time of year when it comes to rainfall.With more rain coming next week...

CLIMATE...

January`s rainfall total so far for the City of Houston stands at
8.29 inches which is 5.84 inches above normal. This makes this
period the second wettest Jan. 1-20th on record, with records
dating back to 1889 (First place is 9.23 inches in 1991).

The 8.29 inches currently stands as the 7th wettest January on
record. The wettest January on record is 13.11 inches in 1891.

On an average year, the City of Houston does not reach 8.29 inches
until March 14th.

[Cpv17]

Like I said earlier we don't have a lot of data when it comes to disturbances coming out of Mexico. So there's always a chance that the disturbances will behave differently than what the models show. I found the snippet interesting from HGX this morning. Houston is almost 6 inches above normal for this time of year when it comes to rainfall.With more rain coming next week...

CLIMATE...

January`s rainfall total so far for the City of Houston stands at
8.29 inches which is 5.84 inches above normal. This makes this
period the second wettest Jan. 1-20th on record, with records
dating back to 1889 (First place is 9.23 inches in 1991).

The 8.29 inches currently stands as the 7th wettest January on
record. The wettest January on record is 13.11 inches in 1891.

On an average year, the City of Houston does not reach 8.29 inches
until March 14th.

What’s interesting to me lately is all the west Gulf lows developing.

[don]

Yep as long as we keep getting these west gulf lows to develop,the chances are higher than normal that we may have a winter storm before the season is over.IF we can get enough cold air to work with.

[don]

There was a reason HGX didn't issue any watches or advisories. Nothing supported that and in places with wintery mix possible the chances were so low that it is a surprise nothing much happened except the small novelty in College Station.

Yep HGX did a good job with this event.Except for a few runs of the NAM (and it corrected itself on Wednesday) nothing ever supported accumulations over here.When it comes to winter weather events here its always better to take a conservative approach.

[sambucol]

I think this will be the first of many events in which P-Type will make it an interesting Winter.

I agree 100%.

[JDsGN]

Like I said earlier we don't have a lot of data when it comes to disturbances coming out of Mexico. So there's always a chance that the disturbances will behave differently than what the models show. I found the snippet interesting from HGX this morning. Houston is almost 6 inches above normal for this time of year when it comes to rainfall.With more rain coming next week...

CLIMATE...

January`s rainfall total so far for the City of Houston stands at
8.29 inches which is 5.84 inches above normal. This makes this
period the second wettest Jan. 1-20th on record, with records
dating back to 1889 (First place is 9.23 inches in 1991).

The 8.29 inches currently stands as the 7th wettest January on
record. The wettest January on record is 13.11 inches in 1891.

On an average year, the City of Houston does not reach 8.29 inches
until March 14th.

Wasn't most of this the single day event on the 9/10th of the month? I certainly haven't had near 8 inches of rain this month in Cypress. Im pretty sure we are at around 2" for the year so far. There was a pretty big gradient on the storms from earlier this month.

[don]

Yes most of that fell during the mini tornado outbreak earlier this month.With such a large county/city theirs always going to be variation in rainfall amounts(Houston is not only one of the largest cities in the country by population but also by square miles). But if it falls at the official recording station (Bush) it counts for records regardless of distribution across the area.

[Stratton20]

8 days out but just something interesting that I saw in the 12z EPS members

[don]

The storm system late next week is one to watch.We need it to dig to the southwest more though if we want a winter storm,but something to keep an eye on.

[Stratton20]

Don seems like the models mostly keep it a rain maker, but I guess with the EPS showing “something” it bears watching

[Kingwood36]

Will we have the cold tho? That's the 64 million dollar question

[don]

Of course nothing wintry is showing up yet but the overall setup is their.Hence why i mentioned the storm would need to dig more. The GFS and EURO both have the storm becoming negativity tilted over the southeast with the EURO showing frozen precip to the gulf coast of Alabama and the Florida panhandle. If the system is able to dig more to the southwest it could tap into colder air while over Texas.(Models are showing a strong cold core low setup with the 540mb thickness reaching the gulf). Just something to watch and see how things trend over the next week.

[Stratton20]

9 days out and I know before anyone says it doesnt look like much, but its showing something just like the EPS for late next weekend saturday-sunday timeframe

[Kingwood36]

9 days out and I know before anyone says it doesnt look like much, but its showing something just like the EPS for late next weekend saturday-sunday timeframe

You don't get shi* this time! You had your fun yesterday

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 bahaha hey just move north of highway 105 jk