January 2022

[Cromagnum]

Next year

Fixed it for ya.

[Kingwood36]

Next year

Fixed it for ya.

[don]

FWIW the NAM composite reflectivity doesn't look too bad tomorrow night.But it could be over doing it of course due to it being composite.So don't read too much into yet.At this time I would expect just a novelty more than anything else.But still worth watching tomorrow just in case the moisture/cold air over perform.

[Cpv17]

Late January into February has pulled me back in after todays terrible model trends bummed me out.

[don]

From Jeff

**Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 700pm for the central and eastern portions of SE TX***

Showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of the approaching cold front this afternoon and a few of these storms could become strong to severe this afternoon and evening. Main threat is strong winds and hail. Highest severe threat will be along and east of I-45.

***Low Potential for mixed winter precipitation across SE TX Thursday night***

Strong cold front will cross the area tonight and be offshore by midnight. Strong cold air advection will quickly drive temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s by sunrise Thursday morning. Strong northerly winds of 25-30mph and gusts up to 40mph will be possible on Thursday as the cold air mass overspreads and entrenches into the region.

Thursday afternoon/night:
Moisture will linger behind the surface cold front and a short wave will approach from the WSW spreading lift over the area. Short range model guidance has been generally backing away from precipitation amounts over SE TX and are currently favoring more of the coastal bend into SC TX and S TX for the proper overlap of precipitation and cold air to produce and concerning impacts.

Across SE TX moisture looks to be generally lacking and pushing toward the coast and offshore prior to the arrival of any freezing or sub-freezing temperatures which has lowered the chances of any mixed phase precipitation across the area. In other words surface temperatures are likely to be above freezing while the precipitation is falling. Surface temperatures on Friday morning will likely fall to at or below freezing for much of the area, but this happens several hours after the precipitation has ended and elevated surfaces will likely be able to dry before freezing temperatures arrive.

Impacts:
While a few isolated icy patches will be possible on any elevated surfaces, the impacts look to be very minimal.

Continue to monitor forecasts for any changes

[Kingwood36]

FWIW the NAM composite reflectivity doesn't look too bad tomorrow night.But it could be over doing it of course due to it being composite.So don't read too much into yet.At this time I would expect just a novelty more than anything else.But still worth watching tomorrow just in case the moisture/cold air over perform.

Well that still includes me in the shaded area lol

[Stratton20]

CPV17 what are you seeing thats pulled you back in?

[Cpv17]

CPV17 what are you seeing thats pulled you back in?

Really good support that our source region will be absolutely loaded but the only thing that keeps me from completely buying in is that there could be a -PNA.

[don]

From HGX afternoon discussion.

With continued CAA pushing temperatures to near or below freezing
levels as an approaching upper shortwave induces the development of
an associated weak coastal trough/low to our southwest, there
remains a possibility for mixed wintry precipitation from late
Thursday through Friday morning. Forecast soundings indicate a
complex precipitation type setup with an warm layer present between
approximately 1-3km aloft. Meanwhile, saturation above 500mb remains
relatively robust, particularly across locations west and southwest
of the Houston metro area. With surface temperatures near or below
freezing through Friday morning in these locations, a mix of
precipitation including sleet, rain, and freezing rain will be
possible. That said, warm land surface temperatures will
contribute to little or no accumulations. Please monitor the
latest forecast for any changes. Daytime highs on Friday remain in
the 40s as northerly flow and broken to overcast skies persist
into the afternoon.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Stratton20]

Just watched david pauls update on youtube, showed a model that still brings in light snow to the houston/ conroe area early friday morning fwiw

[TexasBreeze]

The gfs still has a band through the central part of the area. More sleet than anything. Maybe there will be scattered little sleet showers than the models see. Never know!

[Kingwood36]

It's going to do whatever it wants to do regardless of what models say its "suppose" to do

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS maybe trying to sniff out more wintry mischief again late next week? We will see

[Cpv17]

It's going to do whatever it wants to do regardless of what models say its "suppose" to do

It’ll be cold enough. The problem will be moisture

[jasons2k]

The lines keep on splitting as they pass me by.

[Cpv17]

The lines keep on splitting as they pass me by.

That always happens to you lol

[txsnowmaker]

KHOU mentioning possibilities of a rain/snow mix north of I-10 tomorrow night and a few flurries Friday morning.

https://www.khou.com/article/weather/fo ... 42a93f444d

[Cromagnum]

KHOU mentioning possibilities of a rain/snow mix north of I-10 tomorrow night and a few flurries Friday morning.

https://www.khou.com/article/weather/fo ... 42a93f444d

Any mention of highway 105 ?

[Kingwood36]

First it was south of i-10 now its north of I-10..honestly I don't think they even know what is going to happen

[Stratton20]

How to fool your friends with the weather! Just put it in celcius!