January 2022

Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:14 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:09 pm Kingwood36 I really hope so man because quite a few 18z GEFS members dropped this system

For as long as they showed it to all of a sudden drop it seems kinds ehhh to me..I think they will bring it back

Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:17 pm

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:52 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:44 pm the operational gfs continues to be hot garbage, i think we should discard this model
Or better yet, place it as "Do not trust" Category.

I found this Tweet

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/148 ... gr%5Etweet

Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:34 pm

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:17 pm
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:52 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:44 pm the operational gfs continues to be hot garbage, i think we should discard this model
Or better yet, place it as "Do not trust" Category.
I found this Tweet

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/148 ... gr%5Etweet

That explains it

Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:57 pm

I’m to the point already where if it happens it happens, if not then whatever lol I’m kinda over it already. Just comes with the territory.

Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:24 pm

BBC and "date and time weather" both have frozen precip. ice storm 2022

Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:59 pm

they are lowering temps now.

Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:15 pm

Beaumont is biting…well Lake Charles NWS for Beaumont

Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:19 pm

Hou/gav isn't biting yet..they have me a low of 33 Thursday night with a 50% of rain then a low of 32 Friday night with a 30% of rain

Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:21 pm

THE NWS has a 20-30% chance of snow showers for me here in college station friday morning , guess they are starting to bite, will see what the 00z models show

Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:10 pm

00z Is significantly colder and shows a setup for a sleet/freezing rain storm, shows we dont get out of the low to mid 30’s on thursday

Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:13 pm

David Paul channel 11 just tweeted that it pretty much a cold rain with a slight chance of a snowflake in Brenham/College Station. It’s just not cold enough for a winter storm setup.

Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:15 pm

He's saving face..it's only Monday...his tune will change

Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:21 pm

walsean1 its just too early to say that

Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:05 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:21 pm walsean1 its just too early to say that

We will see what the forecast is by Wednesday Morning but my expectations are tempered. It would be good to get a day off from work

Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:17 pm

walsean1 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:05 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:21 pm walsean1 its just too early to say that
We will see what the forecast is by Wednesday Morning but my expectations are tempered. It would be good to get a day off from work

I’d love that lol I work for Fort Bend County so it would be a paid day off for us.

Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:22 pm

There still is a question of moisture availability, it will get cold enough to get frozen precip eventually.But theirs still uncertainty if moisture will be around by the time the colder air gets here.

Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:26 pm

The GFS may be getting onboard now...It shows a sleet profile over the metro.The sounding show a pocket of freezing air above the surface.

Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:30 pm

Hr 78 during heavier precip shows a nice freezing layer just above the surface when it was warmer before.

Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:31 pm

don wrote: ↑Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:26 pm The GFS may be getting onboard now...It shows a sleet profile over the metro.The sounding show a pocket of freezing air above the surface.

I think a reason why the GFS hasn’t been onboard is due to its lower resolution and its warm bias.

Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:31 pm

The 0Z GFS shows some nice qpf amounts in the post frontal environment also...

January 2022

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