Winter Long Range Discussion

[Cpv17]

This is a nice setup for cold air on the 12z Euro, blocking sets up over alaska and near Greenland, FWIW the 12z CMC is showing a similar setup as the euro

That definitely looks pretty good.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yep! And the fact that the euro isnt the only model showing this setup is a good thing or something to watch

[Stratton20]

Tonights GFS run got really interesting

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS ensemble members for next friday

[Stratton20]

The difference between the 06z GFS and 06z GEFS for next friday is crazy, dont know why their is such a big difference

[Cpv17]

The difference between the 06z GFS and 06z GEFS for next friday is crazy, dont know why their is such a big difference

Always go with the ensemble, especially this far out.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I mean technically 6 days isnt that far out, but its weird to see the operational run that much “warmer” but fwiw 7 of the 20 GEFS members still show a potential wintery precip setup, also 00z Euro run is out

[Iceresistance]

This may not happen since it's in the long range (18z GFS) but YIKES!

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance saw that, storms develops over texas at hour 294, way far out but this may be a signal that the pattern change that is about to occur could be really significant

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance saw that, storms develops over texas at hour 294, way far out but this may be a signal that the pattern change that is about to occur could be really significant

I remembered seeing models that were similar to this last year, but it was pushed back to February, could this also repeat that? Only time will tell if that's true . . .

EDIT: I do want to mention that the PNA is expected to become Neutral at the end of this month.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance I would take this pattern with potential mutliple chances for wintry weather, but id definitely not want a repeat of what happened last february, that was brutal

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance I would take this pattern with potential mutliple chances for wintry weather, but id definitely not want a repeat of what happened last february, that was brutal

I don't either, but the 12z Canadian went crazy cold, down to near Zero for Central & Northern Texas, & Below zero for Southern & Central Oklahoma.

It may happen again, we're overdue for back-to-back February Cold Waves.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance Its possible, and to think just a few days ago the models werent showing anything interesting man how that quickly changed

[Iceresistance]

12z Canadian Long range has very cold temperatures, it's unlikely though since it has a cold bias, especially after cold fronts.

[Iceresistance]

With the MJO becoming inactive, it's gotten harder for very cold weather to come here now once again, but if it reemerges at the right timing & if it gets really strong, something really big may be coming in February.

[Stratton20]

More GFS( 17z run) fantasyland fun!

[Cpv17]

More GFS( 17z run) fantasyland fun!

I’m really intrigued about the last part of this month into the beginning of February. I’m a bit bullish on it right now. I know it’s not wise to be a bullish on something over a week out but it definitely has my interest.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 agreed and this is also something interesting and its inside of 10 days, GEFS sniffing out some more wintry mischief next week?

[Cpv17]

CPV17 agreed and this is also something interesting and its inside of 10 days, GEFS sniffing out some more wintry mischief next week?

Yeah.. and that could be just the beginning of a possible pattern change. There’s a chance it could be turning quite cold after that with more winter weather chances.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 man that would be amazing! Fingers crossed!