Winter Long Range Discussion

[Cpv17]

Brutal Artic attack on the 6z GFS. Like I’ve said, the ensembles have been hinting at it.

[Kingwood36]

Is it 300 plus out tho

[Cpv17]

Is it 300 plus out tho

Yeah this is true but it has some merit to it so it’s not complete fantasy.

[Kingwood36]

Lol I'm just not biting. Gfs has showed this multiple times since December and it never works out. I'll pass till it gets within range

[Cpv17]

Lol I'm just not biting. Gfs has showed this multiple times since December and it never works out. I'll pass till it gets within range

Never said it would happen. Just has a higher chance of happening than usual because it has ensemble support.

[Iceresistance]

End of 0z GFS has snow for most of Texas (Yes, it also includes Houston)

6z GFS gave me February 2021 Flashbacks.

[Kingwood36]

Just a fantasy..it will be gone by the 12z

[mcheer23]

Just a fantasy..it will be gone by the 12z

I'm shocked it stayed around for 2 straight runs, lol.

[Stratton20]

And the 12z GFS dropped it, this winter has been a joke at best, see yall next year when hopefully El Nino returns, im done with this near normal temp stuff

[Kingwood36]

And the 12z GFS dropped it, this winter has been a joke at best, see yall next year when hopefully El Nino returns, im done with this near normal temp stuff

Told ya lol

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 yep this winter is a bust lol, but watch us say that and then we get another winter storm in february lol

[Cpv17]

Nothing really changed on the 12z. The upper air pattern is still there and has big potential.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yeah but that rub of the GFS has “pushed” the bitter cold back in terms of time , thats not something we want to see in a model run, though the GFS still shows it, i suspect we are going to have some interesting model runs in the days going ahead

[Cpv17]

CPV17 yeah but that rub of the GFS has “pushed” the bitter cold back in terms of time , thats not something we want to see in a model run, though the GFS still shows it, i suspect we are going to have some interesting model runs in the days going ahead

Pattern looks quite cold second half of this month. Combine that with what looks to be an active STJ. Blocking looks great near Alaska and Greenland. I’ll take it. Don’t pay too much attention to the changes in each operational run. That will drive you crazy.

[Stratton20]

Ah I gotcha, I guess I do get a little too fixated on the operational runs, but their is something interesting on the 12z GFS that happens at hour 228, GFS sniffing out some wintry mischief in the hill country

[Iceresistance]

And the 12z GFS dropped it, this winter has been a joke at best, see yall next year when hopefully El Nino returns, im done with this near normal temp stuff

No, it shifted north, that storm is still there.

[Cpv17]

Ah I gotcha, I guess I do get a little too fixated on the operational runs, but their is something interesting on the 12z GFS that happens at hour 228, GFS sniffing out some wintry mischief in the hill country

Yep. I’m definitely intrigued with that timeframe right now.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 it has been showing this for the past few days, keeps us in the low 40’s with moisture around, hope we can trend colder with what the gfs is showing

[Kingwood36]

It's winter and I have flowers sprouting lol

[Stratton20]

This is a nice setup for cold air on the 12z Euro, blocking sets up over alaska and near Greenland, FWIW the 12z CMC is showing a similar setup as the euro