Winter Long Range Discussion

[Stratton20]

Yall the 00z CMC just got really interesting tonight, 9 days out

[Stratton20]

Man the 12z GEFS sure looks promising for cold weather!

[Kingwood36]

Man all that rain and I got nothing yesterday and today..just a cpl sprinkles

[Stratton20]

18z GFS is a little bit interesting

[Cpv17]

18z GFS is a little bit interesting

A lot of moisture on the 18z GFS. The subtropical jet is very active.

[Kingwood36]

No cold tho..or not cold enough

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yep the GFS is showing alot of moisture, we just need the cold air as well, though the ensembles are looking promising for colder weather as the teleconnections are starting to come together

[Cpv17]

The 18z GEFS looks really cold in the medium to long range. Definitely one of the strongest signals I’ve seen so far this winter.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yep and the GEFS has been consistently advertising this the past several days, old man winter will most definitely be making a return

[Stratton20]

Winter is over, see yall next year! Models are absolutely dog water right now, nothing even remotely interesting showing up

[Kingwood36]

It isn't looking good that's for sure..not ready to call it quits just yet

[Stratton20]

The PNA looks to be going to a more negative phase, doubt we get any cold air anytime soon

[Iceresistance]

The PNA looks to be going to a more negative phase, doubt we get any cold air anytime soon

The PNA is actually Positive right now, & is expected to be Positive/Sub-Positive for quite some time.

[Iceresistance]

Winter is over, see yall next year! Models are absolutely dog water right now, nothing even remotely interesting showing up

Winter has only started, it's only over after March (Sometimes April for my area)

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance oh I know, but it is expected to go towards a more negative phase, we need it to be neutral, all i see is near normal temps for the next 10 days at least

[Cpv17]

The PNA looks to be going to a more negative phase, doubt we get any cold air anytime soon

The PNA is actually Positive right now, & is expected to be Positive/Sub-Positive for quite some time.

Yeah it’s expected to remain neutral to slightly positive over the next couple weeks. I think we’ll have to wait till the last third of the month and into February for a chance at something exciting.

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance oh I know, but it is expected to go towards a more negative phase, we need it to be neutral, all i see is near normal temps for the next 10 days at least

What do you mean?

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance never mind i must have been looking at a different teleconnection and not the PNA

[Stratton20]

18z GFS sniffing out a strong front around the 21st potentially, this runs shows a slight wintry mix for the hill country, just fantasy land right now

[Stratton20]

00z GFS continues to show a strong front around the 21st or so