Winter Long Range Discussion

[don]

Expect HGX to lower temperatures as we get closer.They always have the forecast a few degrees warmer in this range to be on the safe side.This wont be a record breaking front or anything historical.But it will still bring our coldest temps of the season so far(even though that's a low bar to be fair). And it will finally feel like winter if only for a few days.Considering how warm its been this is better than nothing.And the new snow pack that develops from this front in the plains could also help for the next arctic front to not modify as much.This front may be the start of the process of us stepping down into a colder pattern finally.We shall see...

[Stratton20]

Yep the 12z GEFS is starting to indicate that we may be entering a more cooler/ colder pattern soon

[Cpv17]

The 18z GEFS now has blocking going on in the Gulf of Alaska and the Texas/SE ridge is pretty much gone. That’s some major changes from what it was showing consistently for weeks on in.

[sambucol]

The 18z GEFS now has blocking going on in the Gulf of Alaska and the Texas/SE ridge is pretty much gone. That’s some major changes from what it was showing consistently for weeks on in.

Yes! That's in the right direction!

[Stratton20]

The GEFS is showing a prolonged period of below normal temps, this could be a bog pattern change especially with the ridge starting to build in alaska as advertised

[Stratton20]

12z NAM is interesting

[Iceresistance]

12z NAM is interesting

Someone is eventually going to get NAMed, Lol.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance hahaha I like it

[Stratton20]

Strong signal in the 18z GEFS ensemble for another arctic outbreak around the 6th-7th

[Kingwood36]

Will see..still a ways out tho

[Iceresistance]

Strong signal in the 18z GEFS ensemble for another arctic outbreak around the 6th-7th

12z CMCE has an even stronger signal at around the same days mentioned here

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yep definitely think this arctic shot on sunday is the beginning of a cold weather pattern potentially! Definitely loving the trend in the ensembles

[sambucol]

What do the temps look like on that 2nd mass of cold air?

[Iceresistance]

What do the temps look like on that 2nd mass of cold air?

Down to the Single Digits or Teens for Oklahoma, down to the 30s as far south as Southern Texas right now.

[Stratton20]

Definitely pretty cold, just hope we can get a system in here with cold air in place and some moisture overlapping that cold air, after the miserable few weeks of warm weather, we deserve some snow

[Stratton20]

Things just got interesting on the 00z NAM 3k and 12k runs, they try to bring some wintry precip into our northern and western counties

[Iceresistance]

Jeez, the 2nd cold blast has trended much colder on the 12z GFS compared to 6z

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS is much more aggressive with another front around the 6th , unfortunately moisture looks limited with this system, dont think we will see any wintry precip out of that one either

[Kingwood36]

Looking like a dry cold for now

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS is much more aggressive with another front around the 6th , unfortunately moisture looks limited with this system, dont think we will see any wintry precip out of that one either

Right now, there is currently only 2 Ensemble Members (Out of 20) that has snow for my area, 8 out of 20 has snow for the Southern Plains & Ozarks (Includes Kansas & Missouri)