Winter Long Range Discussion

[Stratton20]

CPV17 thats a good way to put it, will be interesting to see how the models change with the system since its still 6-7 days out, i wouldnt mind a few flakes flying

[Stratton20]

CPV17 looks like a bigger arctic blast is on the table on the 18z GFS at hours 200-240

[Kingwood36]

I seen that to..give it to me within 5 days and take it to the bank!

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 yep once its within 5 days my confidence will be pretty high, byt considering its showing this at hours 200-240 and not at like hour 384 thats not too far off out at all

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS is about 2-3 degrees warmer for this weekend’s front compared to the 12z.

Yeah that second front could be really potent. Cross-Polar Flow could be taking place with that one. Long time to go with that. We’ll see.

[Stratton20]

Yup 10 days out but something to watch, if the GFS is correct on that one we would be in the ice box for sure🥶🥶

[Kingwood36]

Hmmmmm....don't buy it but...

[Stratton20]

How far is that out because the UKMET is actually a pretty good model

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS has stopped working

[Kingwood36]

The 3rd

[Stratton20]

Thats not far out at all! But im iffy on that, though not out of the realm of possibility, the ukmet is decent with snowfall

[Cpv17]

Models are really beginning to look better and better slowly but surely.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 better for what?

[Cpv17]

CPV17 better for what?

Cold.

[Stratton20]

Just looking at the medium to long range in the GFS, it definitely looks as though the MJO geta into phase 8 because the GFS 00z run is showing quite a few arctic outbreaks in the medium-long range

[Kingwood36]

High of 54 Monday and a high of 65 on Tuesday...im so sick of these highs not even getting into the 40s..another weak cold front with it only getting cold at night while we're are asleep....next

[Cpv17]

High of 54 Monday and a high of 65 on Tuesday...im so sick of these highs not even getting into the 40s..another weak cold front with it only getting cold at night while we're are asleep....next

This front will be pretty decent. Highs for many of us in the area will struggle to get out of the 30’ on Sunday and most of us will struggle to get out of the 40’s for highs Monday with a freeze possible both Sunday and Monday mornings. You also have to remember where you live. You live in one of the warmest areas in southeast TX since you’re right next to the Gulf.

[Kingwood36]

That's not what they are saying

[davidiowx]

Here is Jeff’s take on the front. He’s on board with highs in the 40s Sunday and two nights of freezes.

Strong cold front Saturday (NYD) will likely bring freezing temperatures to the region Sunday and Monday mornings.

Through the end of December the warmth and humidity will remain in place with additional record highs likely to fall. It is almost certain that December will end as the warmest ever at all of the SE TX climate sites. Thus far this December there have been some 8900 high temperature records across the US and around 400 low temperature records. The high temperature of 94 at Rio Grande City Tx on Christmas Day surpassed the 92 at McAllen TX from 12.25.1964 to become the hottest temperature ever recorded in the US (outside of Hawaii) on Christmas Day. On December 26, Kodiak, AK reached 65 degrees beating its daily high temperature record of 45 degrees by 20 degrees. This also set a monthly record high temperature for the state of AK and would also set monthly high temperature records for Nov, Jan, Feb, and Mar also. The intensity and duration of the warmth this fall/early winter has been unprecedented in modern records and over such a large spatial extent.

With onshore flow firmly in place over the region, additional records are likely through Friday and maybe Saturday, however a strong Canadian cold front will be sweeping down the plains and across TX on Saturday. Upstream air mass is very cold and dense with modified arctic air of MT and ND this morning and some of this air will surge southward down the plains. Air mass will modify on its southward movement with lack of snow cover across the plains, but a strong front is likely. Given the gravity of the incoming air mass will go with the faster and coldest guidance as these very cold air masses tend to come southward faster than the global models suggest. Front will reach SE TX mid to late afternoon on Saturday and plow off the coast by mid evening. Temperatures will fall a good 25-30 degrees with the frontal passage from the 70’s into the 40’s within a few hours with strong north winds. Freeze line will advance quickly southward on Saturday night/early Sunday and an advective freeze is likely for areas along and north of I-10 on Sunday morning. Wind chills will bottom out in the 10’s and 20’s Sunday morning with cold air temperatures and strong winds….it will be a shock given the recent warmth.

Cold high pressure slides to the NE on Sunday and 850mb temperature only support high temperatures in the mid 40’s with continued cold air advection from the NNE. With winds weakening and skies clear on Sunday night, the coldest night of the winter season will be on tap with likely freeze over much of the area, except the urban heat core (inside the Beltway and the coastal beaches). May see mid and upper 20’s north and west of Houston, although just how cold is still unclear.

High pressure shifts east late Monday and winds come back around off the Gulf and the warm up begins after about 48 hours of cold conditions.

Freeze warnings will likely be required for much of the area Sunday and Monday given this will be the areas first freeze of the season. Sensitive vegetation, pets, ect will need some protective measures, but pipes should be fine, although outdoor sprinkler systems should be protected, shut off, and drained.

[Cpv17]

Here is Jeff’s take on the front. He’s on board with highs in the 40s Sunday and two nights of freezes.

Strong cold front Saturday (NYD) will likely bring freezing temperatures to the region Sunday and Monday mornings.

Through the end of December the warmth and humidity will remain in place with additional record highs likely to fall. It is almost certain that December will end as the warmest ever at all of the SE TX climate sites. Thus far this December there have been some 8900 high temperature records across the US and around 400 low temperature records. The high temperature of 94 at Rio Grande City Tx on Christmas Day surpassed the 92 at McAllen TX from 12.25.1964 to become the hottest temperature ever recorded in the US (outside of Hawaii) on Christmas Day. On December 26, Kodiak, AK reached 65 degrees beating its daily high temperature record of 45 degrees by 20 degrees. This also set a monthly record high temperature for the state of AK and would also set monthly high temperature records for Nov, Jan, Feb, and Mar also. The intensity and duration of the warmth this fall/early winter has been unprecedented in modern records and over such a large spatial extent.

With onshore flow firmly in place over the region, additional records are likely through Friday and maybe Saturday, however a strong Canadian cold front will be sweeping down the plains and across TX on Saturday. Upstream air mass is very cold and dense with modified arctic air of MT and ND this morning and some of this air will surge southward down the plains. Air mass will modify on its southward movement with lack of snow cover across the plains, but a strong front is likely. Given the gravity of the incoming air mass will go with the faster and coldest guidance as these very cold air masses tend to come southward faster than the global models suggest. Front will reach SE TX mid to late afternoon on Saturday and plow off the coast by mid evening. Temperatures will fall a good 25-30 degrees with the frontal passage from the 70’s into the 40’s within a few hours with strong north winds. Freeze line will advance quickly southward on Saturday night/early Sunday and an advective freeze is likely for areas along and north of I-10 on Sunday morning. Wind chills will bottom out in the 10’s and 20’s Sunday morning with cold air temperatures and strong winds….it will be a shock given the recent warmth.

Cold high pressure slides to the NE on Sunday and 850mb temperature only support high temperatures in the mid 40’s with continued cold air advection from the NNE. With winds weakening and skies clear on Sunday night, the coldest night of the winter season will be on tap with likely freeze over much of the area, except the urban heat core (inside the Beltway and the coastal beaches). May see mid and upper 20’s north and west of Houston, although just how cold is still unclear.

High pressure shifts east late Monday and winds come back around off the Gulf and the warm up begins after about 48 hours of cold conditions.

Freeze warnings will likely be required for much of the area Sunday and Monday given this will be the areas first freeze of the season. Sensitive vegetation, pets, ect will need some protective measures, but pipes should be fine, although outdoor sprinkler systems should be protected, shut off, and drained.

With cold air advection coming in on Sunday, I suspect a good part of the area to remain in the 30’s, especially north of 105.