Winter Long Range Discussion
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Still hasn't broke you know who's wall yet...
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Starting to see some signs in the models that the PNA may be heading towards neutral
im optimistic!
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18z GFS is putting intense pressure on Heat Miser's Final Wall
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Only if it clears the Texas coast ..we know it made it past Oklahoma and central texas..if it stalls then it's a failure lolIceresistance wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:45 pm 18z GFS is putting intense pressure on Heat Miser's Final Wall
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Yep the 18z GFS is trying to suppress or weaken the ridge thats been causing this awful weather, and it brings much colder air into Texas but that is far out, still something positive to see
That ridge is ridiculous. Just looked at the 18z GEFS and it remains in place throughout the entire 384 hours. Till that stubborn ridge moves or just weakens that cold is gonna stay locked up to our north. We could be dealing with a big ticket event if not for this blocking ridge. Blocking needs to be up north only, not down here!Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 7:22 pm Yep the 18z GFS is trying to suppress or weaken the ridge thats been causing this awful weather, and it brings much colder air into Texas but that is far out, still something positive to see
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days 9-10 on the 00z GFS just got real interesting 

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Heat Miser's final wall is the strongest, we will know it fell if the front cleared Houston.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 7:21 pmOnly if it clears the Texas coast ..we know it made it past Oklahoma and central texas..if it stalls then it's a failure lolIceresistance wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:45 pm 18z GFS is putting intense pressure on Heat Miser's Final Wall
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The 12z GFS is showing a much stronger signal for a significant pattern change!
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This is what the MJO is doing right now in Phase 7, it's messing up the models badly!


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So until the MJO moves into a different phase, the models are going to be about as reliable as a pile of animal dung, so useless!
We need the MJO to move into phase 8. That’s a cold phase for the south in a Niña background state.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:26 pm So until the MJO moves into a different phase, the models are going to be about as reliable as a pile of animal dung, so useless!
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CPV17 is their any ensemble guidance suggesting which phase the MJO may be trying to head towards?
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This is a very positive trend in the 12z GEFS ensemble, definitely sniffing a big pattern change
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It will go poof again..sadly that has become the trend here lately..showing it then it disappearing
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It's trying to move into Phase 8, but it's stuck in Phase 7 right now.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:50 pm CPV17 is their any ensemble guidance suggesting which phase the MJO may be trying to head towards?
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Dont be a scrooge , everything I post “oh it aint gonna happen” you need some optimism dude their are definitely indications a pattern change is coming, the MJO will eventually go inti phase 8 even if it is moving at a snails pace to do so, apologies if my comment came off harsh, merry christmas yall, hopefully we can get this pattern to break in a few weeks, im almost becoming a scrooge myself haha
Last edited by Stratton20 on Fri Dec 24, 2021 3:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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You can blame the Teleconnections & The MJO for this . . . LolKingwood36 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 3:10 pm It will go poof again..sadly that has become the trend here lately..showing it then it disappearing
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You're talking to me??Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 3:15 pm Your negative crap sucks dude, everything I post “oh it aint gonna happen” you need some optimism dude their are definitely indications a pattern change is coming
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Iceresistance no lol
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