Winter Long Range Discussion

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 im hearing the MJO is heading towards phase 7, not sure who to believe though

[Iceresistance]

Kingwood36 im hearing the MJO is heading towards phase 7, not sure who to believe though

[Stratton20]

iceresistance is that heading towards 7?

[Iceresistance]

iceresistance is that heading towards 7?

We're currently in phase 7, but it's expected to retrograde back to Phase 6 before returning back to Phase 7 like the retrograde never existed.

EDIT: Tropical Cyclone in the WPAC is causing confusion with the models.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance wow haha so I guess the MJO doesnt even know what it wants to do im just hoping we do get a pattern change coming in the next few weeks

[Kingwood36]

Someone said it isn't actually isnt looping back..that its the tropical system in the pacific causing confusion with the models

[Stratton20]

I really so think that system in the pacific is giving the models so much trouble , the EPO is going to go into a negative phase as we approach christmas or maybe just slightly after, the warm biacy in the models right now is astounding, seems like the MJO is really giving the models a hard time, its going to be a long winter if models struggle this bad

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has snow in Oklahoma closer to New Years, this is a good step in the right direction

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yep in the long range it does appear that the models are finally trying to get the arctic air to spill into the US instead of being locked up in Canada, hope this positive trend continues!

[tireman4]

Could it get cold later this month into January...

[Stratton20]

This has got to be one of the most extremely frustrating weather patterns ive seen, no arctic intrusions in sight in the next 16+ days, I might as well say winter is over, what a mega bust

[Iceresistance]

1070 MB High over Canada at the beginning of January at the end of the 12z GFS, how is that even possible?

[Stratton20]

Their is some glimmer of hope in the long range for a significant pattern change, I believe we will be in store for an big arctic blast late December or early January

[Iceresistance]

Their is some glimmer of hope in the long range for a significant pattern change, I believe we will be in store for an big arctic blast late December or early January

Waiting for the final verdict from the GEFS though

[Iceresistance]

CMC showing the same thing, except it's 10 days out!

[Kingwood36]

I don't believe anything unless with within thr 5 day range..especially with that damn gfs!

[Cpv17]

I don't believe anything unless with within thr 5 day range..especially with that damn gfs!

I’m in this camp too. Get it inside of 5 days then I might believe it. I will add though that the GEFS is trending colder in the long range and that’s a really good thing to see because it’s an ensemble mean. Much better to go by that than the operational.

[Iceresistance]

I don't believe anything unless with within thr 5 day range..especially with that d*** gfs!

I’m in this camp too. Get it inside of 5 days then I might believe it. I will add though that the GEFS is trending colder in the long range and that’s a really good thing to see because it’s an ensemble mean. Much better to go by that than the operational.

The Euro is on board too, this got really intresting really quickly!

[Iceresistance]

Kingwood36 the GFS was spot-on with the February 2021 Cold Wave, it was first hinted 14 days out!

[Stratton20]

The Euro is also picking up on a pattern change by days 9-10 that will finally allow the cold air to spill farther south, this is a positive trend today