Winter Long Range Discussion

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 a little bit yes by hour 280 or so, far out, but the gfs has been showing this arctic blast the past 3 runs, hope the trend continues

[Cpv17]

Anyone still having problems accessing the site?

Once I accepted the security risk, it’s been working normally for me. It said the certificate is out of date.

[Kingwood36]

Anyone still having problems accessing the site?

Once I accepted the security risk, it’s been working normally for me. It said the certificate is out of date.

I accepted it also and its still not working on my end on internet explorer..working fine now on Firefox

[Stratton20]

The 00z GFS run by days 11-12 continues to show a major pattern change potentially on the table around the 22nd, this would send arctic air plunging southward as the porlar vortex weakens and a piece of energy breaks off

[Cpv17]

I’m still not too confident. The GEFS looks terrible but it’s looking more promising than it did a few days ago.

[Kingwood36]

Ya, I'm 60/40 on this..40% it will and 60% it wont

[Cpv17]

Ya, I'm 60/40 on this..40% it will and 60% it wont

Same here. Need to see more support from the ensembles.

[Stratton20]

Im 60% confident in a pattern change, this warm weather pattern will have to come to an end eventually

[Iceresistance]

Anyone still having problems accessing the site?

Yes, you have to accept the risk. (Finally in!)

[Iceresistance]

GFS has been showing snow for Oklahoma at around the 20th or 21st, it has trended south to DFW lately as well.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has snow in the Southern Plains, but it's generally along & North of I-40

[Stratton20]

Day 10 on the 18z GFS just got really interesting

[Kingwood36]

Day 10 on the 18z GFS just got really interesting

It's nice to look at but doubt it will come true

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 never say never remember the GFS picked up on last februrarys winter storm over 10 days out, obviously not saying that scenario is gonna happen, but the gfs has gotten some long range forecasts right before, we shall see

[Stratton20]

00z GFS run day 10, I think the GFS may be on to something thats 2 runs in a row, will see if the trend continues

[Kingwood36]

Damn near refreshing out there today..we news more days like this!

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 I agree! It fells so much better outside, the 80’s can dtay sway for the next 4 months

[Cpv17]

I didn’t really see anything interesting on the models today. We’ll see what the 0z model suite has to say in a few hours.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 we are seeing signs that a pattern change may be coming though,

[Kingwood36]

What's this I hear about the mjo moving back to phase 6 now?!?!