TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico

[ticka1]

Which model is that? And how respected/worthy is it? Is this a bad run?

[srainhoutx]

Which model is that? And how respected/worthy is it? Is this a bad run?

It's the GFDL. Here is the HWRF.

[ticka1]

So which one is more reliable? Just curious - as always we have to get something in the GOM to form before anything will develop or happen.....

[srainhoutx]

So which one is more reliable? Just curious - as always we have to get something in the GOM to form before anything will develop or happen.....

It seems more weight is given to the HWRF. NHC mentions both.

Edit to add: Do I see a 110 kt Hurricane in our future from 94L as the GFDL portrays? No. With that said, I suspect the night crew will have some input. After all, there was another storm in 83 that formed along a stalled out trough/boundary in August.

[Ptarmigan]

That's really bullish for 94L. In fact that image reminds me of Ike when it came barreling in.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't put much stock in that GFDL forecast above. It already assumes 94L is a TS with 36 kt winds. Since it won't likely be a TS for at least 48-72 hours, the intensity forecast is not realistic. HWRF may be closer as a minimal TS:

GFDL Intensity:
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/c ... tats.short

HWRF Intensity:
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/c ... .stats.tpc

[Ptarmigan]

So which one is more reliable? Just curious - as always we have to get something in the GOM to form before anything will develop or happen.....

It seems more weight is given to the HWRF. NHC mentions both.

Edit to add: Do I see a 110 kt Hurricane in our future from 94L as the GFDL portrays? No. With that said, I suspect the night crew will have some input. After all, there was another storm in 83 that formed along a stalled out trough/boundary in August.

Hurricane Alicia after a cool front passed by.

[weatherguy425]

I know Models aren't going to be very accurate at this stage in development, but for what it's worth they have clustered together and moved further west. Maybe starting to pick up on the strength of the ridge to the system's north?

[srainhoutx]

BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

[srainhoutx]

Best track suggests the low is now SW of Ft Myers. A big shift to the S and W...

Code: Select all

AL, 94, 2010080912, , BEST, 0, 262N, 823W, 20, 1012, LO

[Katdaddy]

Interesting indeed. However its difficult to see any spin....perhaps a slight spin SW of Ft Myers.

[wxman57]

It's a lot easier to see rotation if you examine surface obs, as in the image below. Broad, weak low pressure area. Most likely won't develop into anything significant. At worst a weak TS moving into the mid Gulf Coast Thursday morning.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for the graphic wxman57. That clearly shows well what the Best Track was suggesting. I find it interesting to see all the MCS activity in the Keys this morning. KEYW mentioned dryer air working in at the upper levels. Any ramp up regarding development looks to be very slow at best IMO.

[srainhoutx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 09 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 10/1600Z
D. 26.0N 84.0W
E. 10/1730 - 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0600Z -1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 11/0430Z
D. 27.0N 85.5W
E. 11/0500 -1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[srainhoutx]

Up to Orange now...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

[Rip76]

Do we need to worry about that blob on the La/Miss border??

hmmm.
I know it's nothing serious , but.

[srainhoutx]

18Z Tracks...appears to have shifted W just a bit...

[ticka1]

could there be anymore shifts to the west? If this stays weak - is there a change it would come more west? Just thinking out loud of possible scenarios?

[wxman57]

could there be anymore shifts to the west? If this stays weak - is there a change it would come more west? Just thinking out loud of possible scenarios?

Nothing to indicate, ticka. In fact, the shallow BAM model takes it farthest east, the deeper level BAM farther west. Nothing to indicate it's going to bring us any rain, though.

[biggerbyte]

Hmm! Rain here? Depends on a few factors. Where does this end up? How strong will it be? Those are questioned that need to be answered before we can evaluate who gets anything. If this stays weak and moves in just to our east, it could spread rains westward. If it stays strong, then all the goodies will remain to our east. A landfall south would give us some rain as moisture gets pulled up into our area. A strong storm, if just to our south, would give us lots of rain directly from the system.

FYI for the newbies...