December 2021

[Iceresistance]

Kingwood36 you are right their, however if the sea temps remain cooler than normal around alaska, then we may not get any good cold snaps at all this winter

It got even colder just offshore, but further out is a different story.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance hopefully those warme temps will start creeping further north

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance hopefully those warme temps will start creeping further north

One of the most hopeful things for a -EPO is that the storm systems will stop going to the Gulf of Alaska & keeping the water temperature colder.

[DoctorMu]

I'd still expect with a La Nina winter again the occasional Blue Norther. Between Christmas and New Year - maybe? Could get lucky with snow again. Don't believe we'll be in the deep freeze for a week like last winter though! Most of the winter should be warm and dry.

[Kingwood36]

You know the weather is messed up when Hawaii has a winter storm watch !

[Iceresistance]

You know the weather is messed up when Hawaii has a winter storm watch !

Now it's a Blizzard Warning!

BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph.

* WHERE...Big Island Summits.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 AM HST Sunday.

[TexasBreeze]

Mount Washington type weather down there with 100+ mph winds and heavy snowfall on those higher up peaks! Amazing to think about that happening at that lower latitude state, but it is a fairly common occurrence.

[Iceresistance]

December has been this warm & mild before, December 1990 is a strong analog, it had a cold blast by the 2nd half.

[jasons2k]

December has been this warm & mild before, December 1990 is a strong analog, it had a cold blast by the 2nd half.

I remember that winter. DFW had a lot of cold winters back then.

Check this out. That winter is the coldest low temp at DFW until this past winter. From 1980 until 1996 there were a lot of cold minimums, and then none in the single digits again until 2021:

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/d32data

[redneckweather]

I don't complain about the weather often but this past week has been serious suckage...just a dead, warm, muggy and windless airmass. That front beginning of this coming week might not be much but I can't wait for it to get here to change things up!

Roll Tide!!!

[jasons2k]

This weather is great for doing some yard work. It feels good to break a sweat! Better than 🥶 shivering!!!

[Katdaddy]

An early June 2022 afternoon in early December thanks to La Niña.

[Katdaddy]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

TXC157-050115-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0194.211205T0020Z-211205T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fort Bend TX-
620 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following
area, Fort Bend.

* WHEN...Until 715 PM CST.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 619 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to a
stationary thunderstorm. Minor flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. This cell
should weaken within the next hour.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northeastern Sugar Land, Missouri City, Stafford, Fresno,
Meadows Place, Fifth Street, Fondren Gardens, Brays Oaks,
Fort Bend Houston and Alief.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

[Iceresistance]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

TXC157-050115-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0194.211205T0020Z-211205T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fort Bend TX-
620 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following
area, Fort Bend.

* WHEN...Until 715 PM CST.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 619 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to a
stationary thunderstorm. Minor flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. This cell
should weaken within the next hour.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northeastern Sugar Land, Missouri City, Stafford, Fresno,
Meadows Place, Fifth Street, Fondren Gardens, Brays Oaks,
Fort Bend Houston and Alief.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

That a Crawler Storm SW of Houston.

[DoctorMu]

You know the weather is messed up when Hawaii has a winter storm watch !

Now it's a Blizzard Warning!

BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph.

* WHERE...Big Island Summits.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 AM HST Sunday.

Blizzard in Hawaii. 80°F in Texas in December. More 80°F weather tomorrow and at the end of the week. I hate running my A/C in Nov - March!

[Cpv17]

This weather is terrible. I shouldn’t be sweating in December. I’m in shorts and a t-shirt and still sweating.

[Cromagnum]

This weather is terrible. I shouldn’t be sweating in December. I’m in shorts and a t-shirt and still sweating.

Yep it sucks. I've only turned my AC off a couple times since October.

[BlueJay]

An early June 2022 afternoon in early December thanks to La Niña.

I like it.

[jasons2k]

An early June 2022 afternoon in early December thanks to La Niña.

I like it.

I’m finishing off a chicken on the green egg. It’s a wonderful evening to be out on the back patio. It doesn’t get much better than this, in any month.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Variable ceilings of scattered to broken 1500-2500ft this morning
is bringing VFR to MVFR conditions, but MVFR conditions will
generally prevail by mid morning. Abundant moisture has brought
scattered light rain showers across the area with the highest
coverage south of I-10 and east of I-45. Isolated thunderstorms
will begin to pop up within the next few hours possibly near any
of the terminals, but the highest chances at HOU, IAH, CXO, and
UTS. Some gusty winds will be possible near any strong storms
that develop, but these stronger storms will be very isolated. A
cold front is approaching from the northwest and should cross CLL
around 14-15z, IAH around 17-18z, HOU 20-21z, and then through GLS
around 22-23z. A line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany
the cold front and it will usher in breezy northerly winds that
continue through the evening. The FROPA will bring the end of
precipitation behind it, but lingering low level moisture will
mean MVFR conditions with CIGs around 1500-2500ft will persist
through Tuesday morning at least.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 351 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]

A very moist atmosphere out ahead of the approaching cold front has
spawned some isolated showers and even the occasional thunderstorm
early this morning. The aforementioned cold front is diving through
north central Texas currently and will be moving through our area
later this morning. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms to
pop up out ahead of the front across the I-10 corridor starting by
4am, then expending in coverage through the rest of the morning
until the frontal passage. There is a chance that some of these
storms that pop up out ahead of the front could become strong due to
steep lapse rates (SPC has most areas west of Brenham in a Marginal
Risk of Severe Thunderstorms due to this). Main threat from any
these discrete thunderstorms, if they form, will by gusty winds and
hail. FROPA will occur across the north by 7 to 8am, the I-10
corridor by 11am to Noon, and then off the coast in the afternoon. A
line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front, but
again the main threat of strong thunderstorms will be from any
isolated storms that pop up ahead of the front. Rain totals today
will generally be below an inch, but some isolated higher amounts is
possible near any stronger storms that develop. Even with the
frontal passage, mostly cloudy skies will linger into tonight. A
weak shortwave aloft will be passing through Texas on Tuesday which
will not only continue the mostly cloudy skies, but also bring some
scattered light showers late Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday
night.

Today will be starting out very warm with much of the area starting
out in the 70s. High temperatures today (generally in the mid 70s)
will likely occur in the morning north of I-10 and then early
afternoon along the coast due to cooler air moving in behind the
front. Cloud coverage tonight will limit radiational cooling, but
CAA will bring temperatures down into the 40s tonight north of
Houston and then into the low to mid 50s south of Houston. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 60s pretty much across
the area with overnight lows about 10 degrees warmer compared to the
night before.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Monday]...

The upper flow will become zonal on Wednesday as surface high
pressure retreats toward the central Great Lakes. 850 mb
temperatures warm and reach 16 C by 12z Wednesday. These values
portend a significant warm up for SE TX beginning Wednesday and
persisting through Friday. 850 mb temps warm from 14 C on Tuesday
to 17 C on Thursday to 21.8 C on Friday. MaxT values will be
strongly dependent on wind direction and cloud cover but it
certainly looks like a 3 day stretch of unseasonably warm weather
with high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. Wednesday
should start out cloudy but there should be some partial clearing
form north to south in the afternoon with PWATs falling to around
0.75 inches. Will keep MaxT values in the mid/upper 70`s on
Wednesday. On Thursday, moisture profiles suggest more cloud cover
and PWATs increase to 1.30. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at a weak
upper level disturbance moving across the CWA and although most
areas will likely remain dry, there is a chance for a few
afternoon showers. Moisture profiles again suggest saturation on
Friday and would expect the first half of the day to be cloudy
with some partial clearing in the afternoon as mid level dry air
mixes toward the surface. Again, 850 mb temps would support upper
80`s for highs, but cloud cover and strong winds should knock a
few degrees off those values.

Finally some relief from the unseasonably warm temperatures will
arrive on Saturday when a cold front crosses SE TX. Still some
minor timing differences between models but there is consensus
that the front should cross the region Saturday morning. The front
will bring a broken line of showers and thunderstorms across the
area and significantly cooler temperatures. MaxT values Sat/Sun
will warm into the lower 60`s with overnight lows dipping back
into the 40`s. The precipitation should end by mid day Saturday
with clearing skies Saturday night and Sunday. Surface high
pressure will settle over SE TX on Sunday and move east of the
region on Monday. Light onshore winds will usher in a warm up
next Monday with a bit more cloud cover. 43


.MARINE...

A cold front will cross the coastal waters early this afternoon.
Winds will switch to the north and increase. The colder air over
the warmer water coupled with a tight pressure gradient will allow
winds to increase to around 25 knots with higher gusts and an SCA
has been issued for the Gulf waters and adjacent bays for
tonight. The surface high behind the front will move east on
Tuesday and winds will become onshore by Tuesday night. On
Wednesday low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies and
quickly deepen. Onshore winds will strengthen significantly
Wednesday night through Friday and a SCEC or SCA may be required.
Another cold front will cross the coastal waters next Saturday.

A couple of other marine hazards to discuss. By mid week, surface
dew points will be near 70 which will be warmer than the water
temps. Depending on the wind direction and the actual water
temperature, there could be a round or two of dense sea fog
Wednesday night through Friday night. The increasing onshore flow
could also produce slightly elevated waters Thursday and Friday
and also some rip currents. 43


.CLIMATE...

Only Galveston established a record high temperature yesterday 78
(ties 1998), but it was still plenty warm. December has just
started but the average daily temperature for the month has
astronomically warmer than normal. Through December 5th, College
Station is a whopping 14.1 degrees warmer than normal. The city of
Houston is 11.3 degrees above normal, Houston Hobby is 11.9
degrees warmer than normal and Galveston appears to be the slacker
at only 10.5 degrees warmer than normal. A brief return to normal
temperatures is expected on Tuesday with another warm up for the
second half of the week. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 70 46 65 54 73 / 80 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 75 50 65 57 73 / 80 10 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 75 54 68 61 71 / 90 10 30 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
tonight for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST
Tuesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.


&&

$$