December 2021

[Kingwood36]

We need that postive to go kick rocks lol

[Iceresistance]

I forgot to mention that a Negative PNA would also be nice since as it turns positive, the cold air from the West Coast will eventually come here

[DoctorMu]

GFS 06z has a very light freeze in HOU and mid 20s in CLL on Dec 11. Not unusual for mid December. There does seem significant support behind the cold mass (-15°F to -40°F in Montana, Dakotas), so the unusual part could be the length/reinforcement of the cold snap.

It's a long way off. We'll see.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is surging it MUCH faster compared to the 6z!

[Iceresistance]

End of the 12z run on the GFS has a Snowstorm for DFW & Oklahoma.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yup i saw that

[DoctorMu]

End of the 12z run on the GFS has a Snowstorm for DFW & Oklahoma.

True, but 20-50°F warmer in that run in the Rockies. I expect this fantasy to fade away.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS trended colder again compared to 12z

[Kingwood36]

I'm about 50/50 of this becoming a reality

[sambucol]

The trend is our friend

[Iceresistance]

Texas only gets a glancing blow from the December Polar Vortex in the 18z GFS, but this is previewing what may happen this coming February . . .

[Kingwood36]

Glancing blows are getter then nothing I suppose

[Stratton20]

im not sold on a goancing blow or a direct hit from the cold air yet, probably wont know that answer for another 8-9 days

[Iceresistance]

0z GFS is still on a Glancing blow for Texas, but it has trended slightly southward again . . .

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance meh the GFS doesn’t show much of a cooldown at all, I think the model is really struggling to pick up on how much cold air is up in the source region right now

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance meh the GFS doesn’t show much of a cooldown at all, I think the model is really struggling to pick up on how much cold air is up in the source region right now

Likely underestimating/overestimating the cold air in the source region?

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yes, because it literally has little to no cooldown for us anymore in the long range, but we will see, seems like cold arctic air always gives the models fits

[Cpv17]

I’m not going to get too excited or believe anything till it’s within 5 days. Anything past that is a crapshoot. The cold pool of water south of Alaska could be a big detriment towards our winter this season. We really need that area to warm up. Hard to get cold air down here with below average SST’s in that region.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 well lets hope those sea temps warm up soon, definitely dont want a repeat from winter a few years back where christmas was in the low 80’s in SE Texas

[Iceresistance]

CPV17 well lets hope those sea temps warm up soon, definitely dont want a repeat from winter a few years back where christmas was in the low 80’s in SE Texas

I once had a streak from 2016-2019 when there was a Thunderstorm on Christmas Day or Eve in Springfield, MO when I was with my Great-Grandparents.