December 2021

[sambucol]

Wondering because of this article from a week ago:
https://www.click2houston.com/business/ ... tent=kprc2
Report: Texas still at risk of winter power blackouts

[Stratton20]

It really is hard to say even if this long range forecast verified to kniw if we would have any black outs, but I definitely don't trust ERCON and the power grid anymore

[Iceresistance]

That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe

The Ensembles are also showing loose signal for Snowfall in Texas, Oklahoma, & Louisiana in the same timeframe as well, this could be huge

[sambucol]

Agreed. I don’t know if they did anything to the grid to make it stronger. Or if it was weakened last winter from the winter apocalypse, and will fail under less harsh conditions.

[Iceresistance]

by days 11-13 the 12z GFS is showing the potential for a huge arctic outbreak in early december, still far out but their definitely is a growing signal for this

Also 2 Major Central & Southern Plains Snowstorms, the entire State of Texas will go under a deep freeze if the 12z GFS verified.

Thinking ahead. If that does verify, how cold? Wondering if we will have rolling blackouts.

Almost the entire state is below freezing, most areas are down to the 20s, including Austin, DFW, & Houston. Panhandle & NW Texas is down the the Teens & single digits.

[sambucol]

That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe

The Ensembles are also showing loose signal for Snowfall in Texas, Oklahoma, & Louisiana in the same timeframe as well, this could be huge

What are the actual dates the models are showing? I know it’s in the area of it could go either way.

[sambucol]

If that verifies, and the whole state is below freezing, rolling blackouts wouldn’t be out of the question.

[Stratton20]

Looks like this arctic blast is around the 5th of december time frame though the GFS does show the arctic air beginning yo enter the US by hour 240 which is 10 days from now

[Iceresistance]

That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe

The Ensembles are also showing loose signal for Snowfall in Texas, Oklahoma, & Louisiana in the same timeframe as well, this could be huge

What are the actual dates the models are showing? I know it’s in the area of it could go either way.

The 12z GEFS Members generally start the snowfall around December 4th or 5th & ends around December 9th or 10th

[sambucol]

I’ll be watching.

[sambucol]

The 4th/5th isn’t that far off.

[Iceresistance]

Right now, the 12z Euro is COLDER than the 12z GFS.

The 4th/5th isn’t that far off.

It's only 9-10 Days away, KFOR is already showing lows in the mid-20s in OKC around December 5th as well

[Stratton20]

12z Euro is very cold

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro is very cold

Colder faster! O_O

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance definitely something to keep a close eye on as we move closer to december

Forgot to mention that there are 2 POWERFUL High Pressure areas in December as well, 1059 MB in Wyoming & 1056 MB in Colorado

Correction: 1058 MB High in Colorado

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yup Euro brings the arctic air here into texas by day 10 while the GFS is a few days later

[Iceresistance]

This is the mean 850 MB Temperature anomalies from the 12z GEFS at +234 hours.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance seems like the GEFS is faster with the arctic air compared to the GFS

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance seems like the GEFS is faster with the arctic air compared to the GFS

It's also very close to the Euro model as well!

Mean Euro Ensembles shows a trough with possibly cold air (Never shows the Temperatures) at +216 Hours, CMCE does not want to have much of it right now.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance we will have to keep our fingers crossed!