November 2021

[Cromagnum]

Pretty humid and blustery today. Gotta prime the atmosphere for tomorrow I suppose.

[don]

Looks like most of us will see some brief heavy rain with tomorrows thunderstorms(minor localized street flooding may be possible). But more rain is on the menu on Saturday once the main upper low kicks out.With a weak gulf low developing in response,we should see some widespread rain and Saturday may be a washout.But the rain appears to be light at this time.Even though we will need to watch just in case the gulf low develops closer to the coast which could enhance rainfall Saturday.But that doesn't look likely at this point.

[Katdaddy]

Yep and the movement of cutoff low over Baja will more add some additional variables to the equation. Looks to be an unsettled pattern through next week.

[tireman4]

From Jeff Lindner Harris County Flood Control Meteorologist

Potential for a stormy Thanksgiving Day

Cool front has progressed into the Gulf waters overnight and refreshing air mass will be short lived as winds quickly turn back SE and S by Tuesday. An upper level trough will be digging into the western US over the next few days with the northern portion of this trough being progressive and moving toward the Great Lakes which in turn will drag a cold front into TX Wednesday into Thursday. The southern portion of this trough looks to cut-off over the Baja region and remain in that area into the weekend (more on that later).

Moisture and warmth will quickly return to TX starting on Tuesday with moisture levels continuing to build into Wednesday and Thursday. Progged soundings show impressive moisture is forecast to be in place by Thursday with PWS of 1.7-1.9 inches over the region which is near maximum values for mid to late November. As the upper level flow transitions to SW aloft a series of upper level disturbances will move across the region starting on Wednesday and into Thursday. Surface cold front will move into the area on Thursday…although timing differences remain in global guidance and when exactly the front moves across the area. All this points to a period of active weather centered around Thanksgiving day with the passage of the frontal boundary in a deep moisture environment. Currently looking at instability somewhat lacking for any severe weather, but some strong storms could be possible. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches look likely over much of the area on Thanksgiving Day with possibly some isolated higher totals given the moisture forecast to be in place.

Front appears progressive and should be to the coast and offshore Thanksgiving evening into early Friday with rain ending from NW to SE. However, the southern portion of the trough remains back over Baja and with SW flow aloft over top of the incoming cold air mass from the north, clouds will likely be hard to clear into Friday. A cold air mass will sink into the state with highs likely only near 60 on Friday. Next question is when does the cut-off system near Baja this weekend begin to head ENE and toward TX. Current thinking is this may happen over the weekend into the early part of next week with increasing chances for showers. Such systems are hard to time and usually eject slower than guidance suggests, but they can also send disturbances out ahead of the main portion and this may happen over the weekend, so while the forecast post front on Thursday is a fairly dry one, there is uncertainly and rain chances may be needed in the post frontal air mass over the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Happy Thanksgiving to all my SE TX weather family! I miss you all!

[Stratton20]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Heres to seeing what mother nature has in store for us down the road in terms of weather! Now time to go stuff myself silly with turkey

[DoctorMu]

Canadian is giving the Baja low more respect than GFS for widespread rain.




...although GFS has local heavy rain accumulation, mostly off the coast.

[Cpv17]

Saturday is really beginning to look like a washout.

[cperk]

Happy Thanksgiving to all my forum members and their families stay safe.

[Kingwood36]

Out smoking a turkey this morning and it's muggy as hell and I had to changed 2 shirts already cuz of the sweat..come on cool front!...happy Thanksgiving everyone

[jasons2k]

Yes! Getting a nice soaker here. This is good news going into a La Nina winter. The meteorological winter starts next week. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

[sambucol]

Happy Thanksgiving!!!

[tireman4]

Coming down hard in Humble....Happy Thanksgiving.

[Katdaddy]

Not much rain down here in NW Galveston County but ready for the cold front. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

[Iceresistance]

Happy Thanksgiving Y'all!

[Kingwood36]

Very light drizzle here..not much rain at all

[JDsGN]

Right at a 1/4 here in Fairfield so far. I wasn’t sure why the models were showing widespread 1-2.5” rainfall. It’s better than nothing.

[Cpv17]

Right at a 1/4 here in Fairfield so far. I wasn’t sure why the models were showing widespread 1-2.5” rainfall. It’s better than nothing.

Yesterday the HRR model was hammering my area (Wharton County) for several runs in a row. We were pretty much in the bullseye for 2-5” and we barely ended up getting anything. Disappointed for sure.

[Kingwood36]

Right at a 1/4 here in Fairfield so far. I wasn’t sure why the models were showing widespread 1-2.5” rainfall. It’s better than nothing.

Yesterday the HRR model was hammering my area (Wharton County) for several runs in a row. We were pretty much in the bullseye for 2-5” and we barely ended up getting anything. Disappointed for sure.

Ya I think the models might have over estimated this event a little.

[davidiowx]

Happy Thanksgiving! Picked up .83” today. Not to bad, but thought it’d be more. Happy the cold is here for the weekend to finish Christmas decorations outside tomorrow. Saturday could bring some decent rains to those closer to the coast.