November 2021

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 im not either but it has shown up on the Euro consistently the past few runs plus the CMC has a similar solution to the Euro although its even colder, definitely something to watch!

[Iceresistance]

Kingwood36 Here is the 00z Euro run

Look at the NAO! (On the Picture) It's about as Negative as you can get!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171017
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
417 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...
Not seeing a lot on radar this morning and with the cap in place, we
should remain on the quiet side of POPs through this afternoon. Rain
chances are expected to increase later tonight along (and maybe just
ahead of) the next cold front. So, for today, breezy/warm/humid con-
ditions should prevail as the WAA pattern remain in place. Highs for
today will range from the lower/mid 80s (depending on cloud cover).

Models remain in fairly good agreement with the timing of the front,
pushing it into the northern CWA around midnight and then at to near
the coast around sunrise. Still thinking that rain chances with this
line will be somewhat limited given the lower PWs (1.1-1.2") and the
lingering cap, but there should be enough lift from the front itself
to produce a thin/broken line of showers and perhaps isolated thun-
derstorms as it reaches the coast. Cooler/drier air behind the front
will begin filtering into the CWA tomorrow/tomorrow night. Highs for
tomorrow will be in the mid/upper 60s with lows falling into the 40s.
Strong/gusty north winds developing in the post-frontal air mass for
tomorrow morning and afternoon are progged to begin decreasing later
in the day (evening). 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
A cool start to the day with readings in the 40s should keep
high temps in the 60s on Friday. As high pressure edges further
to our east onshore winds will resume and expect a gradual warming
trend thru the weekend. Clouds will be on the increase, but rain
chances should hold off until late Sunday and Sunday night when
the next front is forecast to move into the region. (The 00z
guidance generally favors the faster fropa advertised by past
runs). Looking for a thin band of precip along the leading edge of
the front followed by clearing/breezy conditions in its wake for
the remainder of the day Monday.

Those getting an early start for Thanksgiving travel should be
fine wx-wise in SE TX into Wed...but late Wed into Friday there`s
considerable uncertainty. Extended guidance is in fairly decent
agreement showing a front moving across north Tx toward our area
Wed night and Thanksgiving along with some associated precip.
Question is how the upper pattern evolves. Will the western trof
be more progressive, or cutoff leading to a slower front and a
series of upper disturbances riding overhead? It`s beyond the
scope of this fcst package, but something we`ll be looking at in
the days ahead. 47

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
With an elevated (20-30kts) southerly flow persisting just above the
surface, fog development so far this morning has been rather limited
along with lower ceilings. Not planning on a lot of changes with the
12Z TAF package with regards to the timing of the cold front tonight.
Ongoing trends look to be on track. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued a short fuse small craft advsy for the 20-60nm group with
ongoing south winds 20-25kt and seas 5-7ft. Otherwise, southerly
winds will begin diminishing later this morning and afternoon. A
cold front is forecast to push through the waters Thursday morning
with moderate north and northeast winds in its wake through
Thursday night. SCA`s will be required. Winds and seas will
diminish through the day and night Friday as high pressure moves
into the region. An onshore flow will resume this weekend ahead of
the next front Sunday night. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 56 66 42 65 / 0 30 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 67 69 46 66 / 0 30 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 68 72 54 66 / 0 20 20 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

[Stratton20]

12z Euro

[Kingwood36]

12z Euro

I wanna believe...lol..damnit I really do..I have yet to start a fire in my fire pit I bought 2 weeks ago..the marshmallows are getting old for the s'mores this cold snap needs to come on!

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 I know man! Keeping my fingers crossed that the Euro is right about this!And hey if you cant use your fireplace if it isnt cold, just put those smores in the microwave!

[sambucol]

12z Euro

What’s the date on that run? Thanks

[Stratton20]

sambucol the 26th so next friday

[sambucol]

Thanks, Strat.

[javakah]

Half-way expecting that to verify just because the last time my wife went to visit her family in California and I stayed here with our dog was the week of the ice storm. My wife is going again next week and I've managed to avoid it again, staying home with our dogs.

[sambucol]

What do the temps look like for SETX in that run?

[Cpv17]

Ehhh, the Euro looks cold for a day or two but nothing too crazy and it has maybe half an inch to an inch for most of southeast TX. Definitely nothing too exciting. Will change 100 times between now and then though. The GFS looks wetter than the Euro right now but not quite as cold.

I want to add that the models are looking pretty progressive right now. Hopefully they start slowing down. Would love more than one day of decent rain and cold temps.

[Kingwood36]

Travis herzog made a post about the potential front on Thanksgiving on fb..so atleast it's catching the eyes of the local mets

[DoctorMu]

Travis herzog made a post about the potential front on Thanksgiving on fb..so atleast it's catching the eyes of the local mets

Yeah, we might get a frost here on the northern tier on Black Friday.

[Stratton20]

Going to Tulsa, OK for thanksgiving to visit my aunt, might see some snow on the backside of the thanksgiving system next week! Will take some pics if that ends up happening

[Iceresistance]

Going to Tulsa, OK for thanksgiving to visit my aunt, might see some snow on the backside of the thanksgiving system next week! Will take some pics if that ends up happening

I'm also going to have winter fun, the 6z GFS is showing this on Thanksgiving week as well!

[Kingwood36]

Going to Tulsa, OK for thanksgiving to visit my aunt, might see some snow on the backside of the thanksgiving system next week! Will take some pics if that ends up happening

I'm also going to have winter fun, the 6z GFS is showing this on Thanksgiving week as well!

Well I'm jelly...just send me some cold so I can roast a marshmallow atleast

[don]

I'm not seeing anything suggesting more than a normal front we would normally get this time of year.With highs in the 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s for a couple of days.Northern counties may get close to freezing though.

The bigger story for us is that Thanksgiving may end up being a complete wash out.The last couple of runs of the GFS are also showing excessive rainfall in southeast Texas on Thanksgiving showing some really high qpf totals and very high precipital waters for this time of year.I'm not buying it yet...,but we will have to see if the trend continues and if other models start to latch on.

[Kingwood36]

Figures

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 yup figured the front next week would be another bust for SE Texas, thank goodness ill be in oklahoma lol