October 2021
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
TXWeatherMan hope that holds true! Ive only been caught walking in a thunderstorm one time here in a&m and thats wasnt fun haha
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
00z GFS and CMC models coming in much colder around november 4th or so!
The squall line should be here about 6:30 am - 7 am. Overperforming as expected.TXWeatherMan wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 8:16 pmMost models having it moving out well before that for your areaStratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 8:02 pm Hate that the storms are moving in during the morning, I have to walk to my 10:20 lecturethis is gonna be fun haha
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 578
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
- Contact:
OH MY GOODNESS! O_O (0z CMC)
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
31F and heavy frost this morning across the Smokies. Peak Fall colors have settled across our Valley now. Winter comes quickly around these parts. 
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 271129
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021
.AVIATION...
A cold front will cross area TAF sites this morning bringing a line
of shra/tsra. Strong winds could accompany the storms. The front
is fast moving and cigs/vsby could briefly fall to MVFR/IFR with
the fropa but rapid clearing is expected this afternoon with VFR
conds for the afternoon through the end of the TAF period. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021/
SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Night]...
Scattered showers will increase in coverage during the pre-dawn
hours as moisture continues to deepen courtesy of onshore winds. A
cold front over West Texas will race east this morning and should
reach the College Station area around 11-12z, the Houston area 13-
15z and the coast between 16-17z. A strong 500 mb trough over the TX
panhandle will take on a negative tilt as it pivots across the
southern plains. 300 mb winds also begin to split over east Texas
and SE TX will lie a departing 95 kt RRQ. Looking at forecast
sounding data shows PW values surging to 2.10 inches ahead of the
front with CAPE values between 1000-1500 J/Kg. Downdraft CAPE is
between 600-900 and winds in the 925-850 mb layer will be between 35-
50 knots. Helicity values are between 150-300 m2/s2 which is also
of some concern.
So what does it all mean? As the front nears the area, an expanding
line of showers and thunderstorms will move into the western zones
around 6 AM. The instability parameters mentioned above would
support strong damaging winds as stronger winds aloft mix to the
surface with the precip coupled with the fast eastward movement of
the front. There could be an isolated tornado embedded in the line
or perhaps in front of the line if discreet cells can form in front
of the line. The front is fast moving so widespread heavy rain is
not expected but brief pockets of locally heavy rain could dump a
quick inch of rain before the storms move east. The front moves east
and storms will move into the Houston area toward the tail end of
rush hour, probably 9-11 AM. Helicity values increase over the
eastern half of the CWA and again isolated tornadoes will be
possible with any stronger storm. The primary hazard will remain
strong damaging winds. The front will move off the coast by 18z with
rapid clearing and drying in the wake of the front. FWIW, the SPC
has outlooked all of SE TX in a Slight Risk for severe storms for
this morning.
The pressure gradient will remain tight tonight and winds will not
fully decouple. Skies will clear and cold air advection (CAA) will
allow for cooler temperatures by Thursday morning. A Wind Advisory
may be required for the immediate coast tonight.
On Thursday, surface high pressure will build into West Texas but
the pressure gradient will remain tight and winds in the 925-850 mb
layer are between 35 and 45 knots. With full sun expected, there
should be some efficient mixing and winds will remain breezy. The
air mass will also become very dry with RH values between 25 and 35
percent. 850 mb temps cool significantly and MaxT values should only
warm into the mid 70`s. Min T values by Friday morning will trend
cooler with continued CAA but winds don`t fully decouple so the
additional mixing will keep MinT values in the upper 40`s to lower
50`s. 43
LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
Mild temps and low humidity will persist through most of the
weekend as high pressure overhead and ridging aloft will keep our
area in a CAA pattern. Winds will still be elevated on Friday,
but will decrease to 5-10 mph by the evening. Temps will be in the
70s on Friday and Saturday with lows in the 40s and 50s. By
Sunday, onshore flow resumes, so temperatures and humidity begin
to climb again. Daytime highs will reach the upper 70s and near 80
across Southeast Texas and lows should reach the mid 50s to lower
60s. Your trick-or-treat forecast on Sunday appears to be clear
skies, no rain, and temperatures dropping to the low 70s by
sunset.
By Monday, a weak mid-level shortwave will push through North
Central TX, but models tend to disagree regarding rain chances for
our area. For example, the GFS invigorates a surface low across
North Central TX and brings isolated rain chances to our northern
CWA, whereas the ECMWF and Canadian show it completely dry over
TX. By Wednesday, global models hint at lee cyclone developing
east of the Rockies and bringing another front through TX, but
exact timing and duration still vary widely between models.
Therefore, went with generic 15-20% PoPs across our area for now
until models reach more of a consensus. Daytime highs reach the
80s once again early next week and overnight lows cool down to low
60s.
Lenninger
MARINE...
Winds and seas have been increasing over the past several hours,
and that trend will continue over the next few days. Onshore winds
have increased to SCA criteria ahead of an approaching cold front.
This front will reach our Gulf Waters early afternoon and bring
with it scattered showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the
frontal boundary and alongside it. Expect reduced visibilities,
strong and variable winds, and locally higher seas with the
strongest storms. Behind the front, winds quickly become
northwesterly and continue to increase to high end SCA and
approach Gale criteria. Wind gusts are expected to exceed 35kts.
Therefore, a Gale Watch is in effect beginning early Thursday
morning and may extend as far out as Friday. Winds will remain
northwesterly through the weekend and will decrease below 15kts
by late Saturday. However, seas will be slower to subside, but
should also drop to below SCEC conditions by Saturday.
Early this morning and through the afternoon while onshore flow
persists before the frontal passage, there is a risk for strong
rip currents and minor coastal flooding. After the frontal
passage, with strong offshore winds, we can expect possible Low
Water Advisories as early as Thursday night along with abnormally
low tides across our Bays and ship channels.
FIRE WEATHER...
A very dry air mass coupled with breezy winds will create an elevated
risk for fire weather on Thursday. It doesn`t look like we will meet
red flag criteria but the strong winds and low RH values will
created an elevated risk for fire weather conditions. Grasses and
other fine fuels will dry quickly courtesy of the strong winds.
Sustained NW winds will increase to 20-25 mph in the afternoon and RH
values will fall to around 30 percent. Please use caution on
Thursday if working with flammable material outdoors. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 53 75 50 72 / 100 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 55 76 51 72 / 100 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 63 78 58 74 / 100 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 271129
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021
.AVIATION...
A cold front will cross area TAF sites this morning bringing a line
of shra/tsra. Strong winds could accompany the storms. The front
is fast moving and cigs/vsby could briefly fall to MVFR/IFR with
the fropa but rapid clearing is expected this afternoon with VFR
conds for the afternoon through the end of the TAF period. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021/
SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Night]...
Scattered showers will increase in coverage during the pre-dawn
hours as moisture continues to deepen courtesy of onshore winds. A
cold front over West Texas will race east this morning and should
reach the College Station area around 11-12z, the Houston area 13-
15z and the coast between 16-17z. A strong 500 mb trough over the TX
panhandle will take on a negative tilt as it pivots across the
southern plains. 300 mb winds also begin to split over east Texas
and SE TX will lie a departing 95 kt RRQ. Looking at forecast
sounding data shows PW values surging to 2.10 inches ahead of the
front with CAPE values between 1000-1500 J/Kg. Downdraft CAPE is
between 600-900 and winds in the 925-850 mb layer will be between 35-
50 knots. Helicity values are between 150-300 m2/s2 which is also
of some concern.
So what does it all mean? As the front nears the area, an expanding
line of showers and thunderstorms will move into the western zones
around 6 AM. The instability parameters mentioned above would
support strong damaging winds as stronger winds aloft mix to the
surface with the precip coupled with the fast eastward movement of
the front. There could be an isolated tornado embedded in the line
or perhaps in front of the line if discreet cells can form in front
of the line. The front is fast moving so widespread heavy rain is
not expected but brief pockets of locally heavy rain could dump a
quick inch of rain before the storms move east. The front moves east
and storms will move into the Houston area toward the tail end of
rush hour, probably 9-11 AM. Helicity values increase over the
eastern half of the CWA and again isolated tornadoes will be
possible with any stronger storm. The primary hazard will remain
strong damaging winds. The front will move off the coast by 18z with
rapid clearing and drying in the wake of the front. FWIW, the SPC
has outlooked all of SE TX in a Slight Risk for severe storms for
this morning.
The pressure gradient will remain tight tonight and winds will not
fully decouple. Skies will clear and cold air advection (CAA) will
allow for cooler temperatures by Thursday morning. A Wind Advisory
may be required for the immediate coast tonight.
On Thursday, surface high pressure will build into West Texas but
the pressure gradient will remain tight and winds in the 925-850 mb
layer are between 35 and 45 knots. With full sun expected, there
should be some efficient mixing and winds will remain breezy. The
air mass will also become very dry with RH values between 25 and 35
percent. 850 mb temps cool significantly and MaxT values should only
warm into the mid 70`s. Min T values by Friday morning will trend
cooler with continued CAA but winds don`t fully decouple so the
additional mixing will keep MinT values in the upper 40`s to lower
50`s. 43
LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
Mild temps and low humidity will persist through most of the
weekend as high pressure overhead and ridging aloft will keep our
area in a CAA pattern. Winds will still be elevated on Friday,
but will decrease to 5-10 mph by the evening. Temps will be in the
70s on Friday and Saturday with lows in the 40s and 50s. By
Sunday, onshore flow resumes, so temperatures and humidity begin
to climb again. Daytime highs will reach the upper 70s and near 80
across Southeast Texas and lows should reach the mid 50s to lower
60s. Your trick-or-treat forecast on Sunday appears to be clear
skies, no rain, and temperatures dropping to the low 70s by
sunset.
By Monday, a weak mid-level shortwave will push through North
Central TX, but models tend to disagree regarding rain chances for
our area. For example, the GFS invigorates a surface low across
North Central TX and brings isolated rain chances to our northern
CWA, whereas the ECMWF and Canadian show it completely dry over
TX. By Wednesday, global models hint at lee cyclone developing
east of the Rockies and bringing another front through TX, but
exact timing and duration still vary widely between models.
Therefore, went with generic 15-20% PoPs across our area for now
until models reach more of a consensus. Daytime highs reach the
80s once again early next week and overnight lows cool down to low
60s.
Lenninger
MARINE...
Winds and seas have been increasing over the past several hours,
and that trend will continue over the next few days. Onshore winds
have increased to SCA criteria ahead of an approaching cold front.
This front will reach our Gulf Waters early afternoon and bring
with it scattered showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the
frontal boundary and alongside it. Expect reduced visibilities,
strong and variable winds, and locally higher seas with the
strongest storms. Behind the front, winds quickly become
northwesterly and continue to increase to high end SCA and
approach Gale criteria. Wind gusts are expected to exceed 35kts.
Therefore, a Gale Watch is in effect beginning early Thursday
morning and may extend as far out as Friday. Winds will remain
northwesterly through the weekend and will decrease below 15kts
by late Saturday. However, seas will be slower to subside, but
should also drop to below SCEC conditions by Saturday.
Early this morning and through the afternoon while onshore flow
persists before the frontal passage, there is a risk for strong
rip currents and minor coastal flooding. After the frontal
passage, with strong offshore winds, we can expect possible Low
Water Advisories as early as Thursday night along with abnormally
low tides across our Bays and ship channels.
FIRE WEATHER...
A very dry air mass coupled with breezy winds will create an elevated
risk for fire weather on Thursday. It doesn`t look like we will meet
red flag criteria but the strong winds and low RH values will
created an elevated risk for fire weather conditions. Grasses and
other fine fuels will dry quickly courtesy of the strong winds.
Sustained NW winds will increase to 20-25 mph in the afternoon and RH
values will fall to around 30 percent. Please use caution on
Thursday if working with flammable material outdoors. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 53 75 50 72 / 100 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 55 76 51 72 / 100 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 63 78 58 74 / 100 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.
&&
$$
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Tornado Watch issued...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
That line looks mean
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
I'm more interested in next week's potential cold front than this one..I want some highs in the 50s not 70s
Tornado warning issued for Houston metro.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
816 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 845 AM CDT.
* At 815 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Cypress, or 7 miles northwest of Addicks Park Ten,
moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Jersey Village and northeastern Addicks Park Ten around 825 AM
CDT.
Spring Branch West, Carverdale, Fairbanks / Northwest Crossing,
Westbranch and Willowbrook around 830 AM CDT.
Spring Branch North, Spring Valley, Greater Inwood, Spring Branch
East and Spring Branch Central around 835 AM CDT.
Hunters Creek Village, Greater Greenspoint, Hilshire Village,
Central Northwest, Langwood, Lazybrook / Timbergrove and Greater
Uptown around 840 AM CDT.
Northside / Northline, Aldine, Near Northside Houston, Greater
Heights, Memorial Park, Downtown Houston, Neartown / Montrose,
Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area, Fourth Ward and Greater Fifth Ward
around 845 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Discovery Green, Compass Stadium and Minute Maid Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.
&&
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
816 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 845 AM CDT.
* At 815 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Cypress, or 7 miles northwest of Addicks Park Ten,
moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Jersey Village and northeastern Addicks Park Ten around 825 AM
CDT.
Spring Branch West, Carverdale, Fairbanks / Northwest Crossing,
Westbranch and Willowbrook around 830 AM CDT.
Spring Branch North, Spring Valley, Greater Inwood, Spring Branch
East and Spring Branch Central around 835 AM CDT.
Hunters Creek Village, Greater Greenspoint, Hilshire Village,
Central Northwest, Langwood, Lazybrook / Timbergrove and Greater
Uptown around 840 AM CDT.
Northside / Northline, Aldine, Near Northside Houston, Greater
Heights, Memorial Park, Downtown Houston, Neartown / Montrose,
Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area, Fourth Ward and Greater Fifth Ward
around 845 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Discovery Green, Compass Stadium and Minute Maid Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.
&&
Wow
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Looks like the warning for Montgomery was cancelled. It didn’t really look like a tornado signature to me. More like straight line winds but with the trajectory towards the radar beam you get the red and green line on doppler. Transitory. It’s just wind.
Areas out ahead of the front look to have genuine signatures though.
-
weatherguy425
- Pro Met
- Posts: 830
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:45 pm
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
- Contact:
A pretty normal signature for quick spin ups along the leading edge of a squall line; they’re rarely “picturesque”. Haha. The signature in central Harris County earlier was a bit more pronounced.
we got tornados all over the place around here...even at bmt airport where im flying out of today.
There was a funnel cloud near Grand Oaks HS with one of those spinups.
Been hammered since 8am in Beaumont. Possible tornadoes and warnings all over the place. The lightening had been intense. Beaumont Port Arthur and especially Orange take cover now. This isn’t even the main event. 4” of rain so far and news channels are broadcasting urging folks to take cover. Many roads are impassable do to flooding. Stay safe SETX.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Next week about 8 days from bow could be pretty cold around here!
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Ya I'm more focused on that one! I'd like highes in the 50s or 40s instead of the 70s lol I love the coldStratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:23 am Next week about 8 days from bow could be pretty cold around here!